ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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sandyb
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2941 Postby sandyb » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:47 pm

we must be running out of things to talk about on this thread...no comments have been made lately, I was just in Wal-Mart on my lunch hour they are out of bottled water..not the gal jugs but the small bottles they had like 8 cases left over by the videos they guy said he didnt know when they will get more in, I got a couple but I buy them anyway on a weekly basis..ok so anyone have any new information on Ear for us here in Eastern NC do you pro mets feel sure it will stay off shore as the hurricane center is saying now? I am still getting ready but just seeing everyone out getting ready makes it feel like we might be in for something..good that people are preparing
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2942 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:50 pm

There isn't much to say about it right now. Once Earl gets closer, more people will discuss it or if it becomes a well developed system once again after the EWRC.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2943 Postby lovestorms84 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:52 pm

sandyb wrote:we must be running out of things to talk about on this thread...no comments have been made lately, I was just in Wal-Mart on my lunch hour they are out of bottled water..not the gal jugs but the small bottles they had like 8 cases left over by the videos they guy said he didnt know when they will get more in, I got a couple but I buy them anyway on a weekly basis..ok so anyone have any new information on Ear for us here in Eastern NC do you pro mets feel sure it will stay off shore as the hurricane center is saying now? I am still getting ready but just seeing everyone out getting ready makes it feel like we might be in for something..good that people are preparing



I also just left Wal-Mart and my store only has bottle water, NO gallon jugs avail, and the flashlights and oil-lanterns are almost gone..Not sure if I should be worried or not?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2944 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:52 pm

RL3AO wrote:MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 15:31:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 114 KT SE QUAD 17:19:00Z
EYEWALL IS REFORMING.


Thanks for that ominous update. That means we should see the cycle complete for tonight and more strengthening. :eek:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2945 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:00 pm

On satellite, Earl is looking very ragged, the cloud tops have warmed considerably, there is strong evidence of dry air trying to penetrate the core and some shear nearby. This is not a Cat 4. Like I said before, it will probably be downgraded to a Cat 2 tonight.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2946 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:00 pm

It looks like the new eyewall is closing up and getting stronger

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Doesn't look like dry-air has gotten into the core yet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif
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#2947 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:00 pm

its probably going to start weakening soon as there is a lot of dry sir being pulled in now.. which is easily seen in WV and on visible and IR you can see the whole western side erode away...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2948 Postby Julanne » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:01 pm

Earl appears to presently be tracking 103 miles to my East. Too close for comfort at this point in MA. There really isn't much hype here yet but I am getting prepared. It's been years since we have seen a storm of this magnitude up here. How high can we guess the winds will get based on that 103 mile East track?
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#2949 Postby cwachal » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:01 pm

I wish recon was in the storm... I think that we should have recon in the storm 24/7 when the storm is threatening land
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2950 Postby yzerfan » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:01 pm

I'd expect Walmart to be getting new shipments in within the next day. The big box stores are usually pretty good about moving inventory in to take advantage of increased demand ahead of a storm. Not to say it'll be enough inventory so that everyone who wants it gets it, but there should be additional shipments on the way.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2951 Postby ncweatherwizard » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:03 pm

lovestorms84 wrote:
sandyb wrote:we must be running out of things to talk about on this thread...no comments have been made lately, I was just in Wal-Mart on my lunch hour they are out of bottled water..not the gal jugs but the small bottles they had like 8 cases left over by the videos they guy said he didnt know when they will get more in, I got a couple but I buy them anyway on a weekly basis..ok so anyone have any new information on Ear for us here in Eastern NC do you pro mets feel sure it will stay off shore as the hurricane center is saying now? I am still getting ready but just seeing everyone out getting ready makes it feel like we might be in for something..good that people are preparing



I also just left Wal-Mart and my store only has bottle water, NO gallon jugs avail, and the flashlights and oil-lanterns are almost gone..Not sure if I should be worried or not?


Well it's good to hear that people are making their basic preparations. I would be prepared for a day or two without power because it's going to get windy. I wouldn't get terribly worried right now, but be prudent, and use this as a reminder to always have basic nonperishable supplies on hand.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2952 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:11 pm

I'm not buying the weakening. ERC ending, and new eye forming.

30 FRAME LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2953 Postby rosethornil » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:14 pm

This morning at Wal-mart in Suffolk (VA), I was surprised to see that there was no "extra" stock of water piled up around the water-bottle display. I was in the store early (about 7:00 am), and the clerks were stocking the shelves right then.

Guess everyone already has all the water they need? I felt a little odd taking three "containers" of water (comprised of 24 16-oz bottles), but aren't we supposed to have enough water to last all family members for seven days?

One things for sure: I'm sure glad I put in those four 55-gallon rain barrels last year. They're a wonderful supply of free, gravity-fed water!

Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2954 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:17 pm

The area of dry air is very strong and expansive. It's coming closer and closer to the core. I even think there's a chance Earl could completely collapse if all that dry air is injected into its core. This is the exact same thing that happened to Isabel. She was a powerful and well defined Cat 5 and got hit hard by some dry air rapidly weakening into a Cat 2. She was never able to restrengthen. Earl is a weaker and smaller system than Isabel dealing with similar dry air.

I think he can weaken all the way down to a Cat 1 well before it even approaches the east coast if enough of the core gets disrupted. The EWRC makes things even worse for Earl because it's allowing the dry air to be sucked into the system. This is just my opinion and what I believe could occur with Earl. It would be a huge saving grace for those living on the Outer Banks.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2955 Postby Steve Cosby » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:26 pm

rosethornil wrote:This morning at Wal-mart in Suffolk (VA), I was surprised to see that there was no "extra" stock of water piled up around the water-bottle display. I was in the store early (about 7:00 am), and the clerks were stocking the shelves right then.

Guess everyone already has all the water they need? I felt a little odd taking three "containers" of water (comprised of 24 16-oz bottles), but aren't we supposed to have enough water to last all family members for seven days?

One things for sure: I'm sure glad I put in those four 55-gallon rain barrels last year. They're a wonderful supply of free, gravity-fed water!



Until they get blown over! :lol:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2956 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2957 Postby UpTheCreek » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:31 pm

rosethornil wrote:
One things for sure: I'm sure glad I put in those four 55-gallon rain barrels last year. They're a wonderful supply of free, gravity-fed water!

Image



Better check again, I think somebody stole one! :eek:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2958 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:32 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:The area of dry air is very strong and expansive. It's coming closer and closer to the core. I even think there's a chance Earl could completely collapse if all that dry air is injected into its core. This is the exact same thing that happened to Isabel. She was a powerful and well defined Cat 5 and got hit hard by some dry air rapidly weakening into a Cat 2. She was never able to restrengthen. Earl is a weaker and smaller system than Isabel dealing with similar dry air.

I think he can weaken all the way down to a Cat 1 well before it even approaches the east coast if enough of the core gets disrupted. The EWRC makes things even worse for Earl because it's allowing the dry air to be sucked into the system. This is just my opinion and what I believe could occur with Earl. It would be a huge saving grace for those living on the Outer Banks.


Well it is fairly rare for NC to actually see a Cat 4 hurricane, the only I can think of at the moment is Hazel. Most of your NC canes are usually borderline Cat2/3 type storms.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2959 Postby UpTheCreek » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:38 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:The area of dry air is very strong and expansive. It's coming closer and closer to the core. I even think there's a chance Earl could completely collapse if all that dry air is injected into its core. This is the exact same thing that happened to Isabel. She was a powerful and well defined Cat 5 and got hit hard by some dry air rapidly weakening into a Cat 2. She was never able to restrengthen. Earl is a weaker and smaller system than Isabel dealing with similar dry air.

I think he can weaken all the way down to a Cat 1 well before it even approaches the east coast if enough of the core gets disrupted. The EWRC makes things even worse for Earl because it's allowing the dry air to be sucked into the system. This is just my opinion and what I believe could occur with Earl. It would be a huge saving grace for those living on the Outer Banks.


I think your opinion is pretty reasonable and on it's face, I could go along with it. But the only thing that you seem to completely discount are all the building full of experts with walls of degrees in meteorology that have other ideas for this hurricane. Now, you've got to think.......what do they know that I don't?

Just sayin'......although I really do think your opinion is reasonable and I asked about the wall of dry air just yesterday and asked what Earl was going to do about that, just plow through it?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2960 Postby HurricaneQueen » Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:39 pm

This just posted on Twitter by our very own Scott in Va: 1Z GFNI (GFDL run @ Navy FNMOC) still WEST of OBX. This model has been pretty good with Earl. Keep an eye on it. http://midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.php?config=tropimap&forecast=tropsystems&year=2010&region=NT&hwvstormid=7&alt=tropsystempage&hwvmetric=

Wow, what a week this has been and continues to be. Northern Caribbean islands under a TS watch for Fiona and EC watching and waiting to see if Earl will pay them a visit. Good luck everyone. For once Florida can sit this one out! :wink:

Lynn
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