ATL: EARL - Models

[shah8]

12z HWRF keeps everyone mostly clean except for the canadians. Drops the back bend towards the N instead of NE from the 12z.

I'm beginning to sense that models are pretty much useless at this point. We know what's going to happen, and everything is a matter of timing, and we will know the future better than model output simply by watching the speeds of everything. Let the wobble watching commence!

[x-y-no]

Most notable thing about the 12z HWRF is it weakens Earl to a cat 1 in 24 hours and keeps him that weak.

Would be excellent if that happened, but I ain't holding my breath.

[HurrMark]

Yeah, models seem to be slightly east and a bit weaker this run so far...let's see if the trend continues...that would be great news for the US if this pans out.

[xironman]

You knew with the GFS being closer the GDFL could not be far behind.

[x-y-no]

12z Euro keeps Earl offshore from the Outer Banks, but direct hit on Cape Cod.

[Brent]

12z Euro:

[shah8]

That is more inland than Cape Cod, assuming it was coming from the SW to some degree.

[x-y-no]

That is more inland than Cape Cod, assuming it was coming from the SW to some degree.

The movement is NNE at that point, so that would be a track across the Upper Cape, or maybe right up Buzzards Bay.

[xironman]

The east coast is going to be a mess if the Euro gets its way.



Edit
Oops Thanks STS

[South Texas Storms]

that run of fiona hitting the east coast was yesterdays.

[xironman]

that run of fiona hitting the east coast was yesterdays.

Thanks, I guess he does not clear out the images from the previous run.

[HurrMark]

that run of fiona hitting the east coast was yesterdays.

No, it was today. It is a 12Z 9/4 forecast at 96 hours...so it initiialized at 12Z today.

[xironman]

that run of fiona hitting the east coast was yesterdays.

No, it was today. It is a 12Z 9/4 forecast at 96 hours...so it initiialized at 12Z today.

Mark, I posted one image after that I later removed (Edit Oops) so as to not post inaccurate information STS was right.

[plasticup]

Most notable thing about the 12z HWRF is it weakens Earl to a cat 1 in 24 hours and keeps him that weak.

Would be excellent if that happened, but I ain't holding my breath.

HWRF has been underestimating intensity all season. Almost every run has called for Earl to weaken dramatically. It did the same thing with Danielle.

[SootyTern]

Also not looking good for Nova Scotia, could have a system as strong as Bill was up there soon...

Worse than Bill if he went up the Bay of Fundy...

[cpdaman]

The east coast is going to be a mess if the Euro gets its way.



Edit
Oops Thanks STS

btw if you zoom in it is not a hit on cape cod...it is slightly east ..based on the longitude...more like over nantucket.

that at this point is a intersting run to say the least...but let's see if we could get some continuity from run to run....and no way is there a 943 mb hurricane sitting that close to cape cod....is that what the higher resolution euro shows or am i eyes going mad

[lester]

Looks a bit west

[rockyman]

72 hours:

[artist]

blown up that shows it is off shore ( the center is)

[Tstormwatcher]

Looks a bit west

Our local met seems to think that the track will head west because he believes that the front that is supposed to turn Earl is moving much slower than originally predicted. Any opinions on that?