ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

When will recon start to depart?

1 1/2 hours or so I think

[ozonepete]

Is anyone having problems with the NOAA SSD satellite images and loops? I'm getting server error and can't see any of them...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Noaa Satellite is working fine for me.

[Macrocane]

Yes I am.

[AJF0602]

Is there any chance Earl could beat out the cold front with either its speed or the front just simply not moving fast enough? Earl is still moving rather fast.

[ColinDelia]

Is anyone having problems with the NOAA SSD satellite images and loops? I'm getting server error and can't see any of them...

yeah intermittent problems

[TheBurn]

[ozonepete]

Is there any chance Earl could beat out the cold front with either it's speed or the front just simply not moving fast enough? Earl is still moving rather fast.

Those are two of th emost important options we are all focused on. That's also what the computer models are designed to figure out better than we can. So the next important computer model runs are going on right now (00Z) and will be available by 11PM EDT. They are run with the latest input data (latest measured atmospheric conditions) and will tell us a lot about whether the front/trough has slowed down or may slow down and whether Earl's current speed will change the track, among many other things. I have learned (sometimes impatiently) that you just have to wait for the newest model output to get an idea how things are changing. They are still pretty poor on strength, but they are VERY good at track, especially within 48 hours. I have learned the hard way that since about 2000, they are very rarely wrong within 24-48 hours, UNLESS the system has stalled or is moving very slowly.

[plasticup]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 69.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...235 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 835 MI...1545 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Compare to the 5 PM advisory (3 hours ago):

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

The turn is well underway.

[hurricaneCW]

How ahead Earl is to the north of the forecast track is more important than how far west he gets when it comes to landfall. Like I said, the further north he gets, the closer he'll get to the coast because he'd be moving north ahead of the trough that turns him to the NE. Even at a 315-320 movement, he gradually going to get close to the coast. He's already past 69W, it doesn't take too much of a westerly movement to get between 74-76W.

[cpdaman]

platic the "turn" is in response to a upper level feature to his W....he is going around it...

i bet you that by tommorow at noon he is heading on a more westerly heading than he is right now....he will be more under the influence of the high pressure tommorrow as right now he is more under the influence of the upper trough to his west...which is sinking SW slowly but surely

[SouthFloridawx]

I am extremely grateful that this system isn't coming to Florida.

[ozonepete]

How ahead Earl is to the north of the forecast track is more important than how far west he gets when it comes to landfall. Like I said, the further north he gets, the closer he'll get to the coast because he'd be moving north ahead of the trough that turns him to the NE. Even at a 315-320 movement, he gradually going to get close to the coast. He's already past 69W, it doesn't take too much of a westerly movement to get between 74-76W.

You are right about that. If it moves on its current heading of 315 degrees and speeds up a little, it WILL get much closer to the coast much faster, and could affect more of the mid-Atlantic from Hatteras north. Any more west-northwest motion now would bring it closer to the coast, even landfalling near Hatteras, but soon thereafter the 500mb trough will recurve it away to the northeast more sharply.

Reallly, for me, the model output at 11PM is very key right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

platic the "turn" is in response to a upper level feature to his W....he is going around it...

i bet you that by tommorow at noon he is heading on a more westerly heading than he is right now....he will be more under the influence of the high pressure tommorrow as right now he is more under the influence of the upper trough to his west...which is sinking SW slowly but surely

[HurrMark]

How ahead Earl is to the north of the forecast track is more important than how far west he gets when it comes to landfall. Like I said, the further north he gets, the closer he'll get to the coast because he'd be moving north ahead of the trough that turns him to the NE. Even at a 315-320 movement, he gradually going to get close to the coast. He's already past 69W, it doesn't take too much of a westerly movement to get between 74-76W.

Yeah...geography is something that will be key in this case. If you look at the forecast track, the maximum longitude forecasted...roughly 75.5, is exactly the point of Cape Hatteras. It might go a few ticks more in between forecast points, but that is generally as far west as it will go. The point it will hit 75.5 will be at about 31 N according to the forecast. Cape Hatteras is at 35 N. So if it moves north of forecast, that would actually bring it closer to land (the big caveat is that it would have to move at a slightly faster pace than forecasted to account for the same amount of longitude and more latitude.)

[ozonepete]

platic the "turn" is in response to a upper level feature to his W....he is going around it...

i bet you that by tommorow at noon he is heading on a more westerly heading than he is right now....he will be more under the influence of the high pressure tommorrow as right now he is more under the influence of the upper trough to his west...which is sinking SW slowly but surely

I love those CIMSS charts, but remember in a case like this the steering currents will change a lot pretty quickly in the next two days. So what you see in there now will be very different by tomorrow night and Thursday...

[Stephanie]

Well, we don't see this kind of forecast in Atlantic City very often:

Atlantic City NJ
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Philadelphia, PA
Point Forecast: Atlantic City NJ
39.36°N 74.4°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 7:44 pm EDT Aug 31, 2010
Forecast Valid: 9pm EDT Aug 31, 2010-6pm EDT Sep 7, 2010


Hazardous weather condition(s):

Air Quality Alert


Tonight: Clear, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 92. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming south.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 73. Southwest wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84. South wind between 7 and 16 mph.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Weatherfreak14]

How ahead Earl is to the north of the forecast track is more important than how far west he gets when it comes to landfall. Like I said, the further north he gets, the closer he'll get to the coast because he'd be moving north ahead of the trough that turns him to the NE. Even at a 315-320 movement, he gradually going to get close to the coast. He's already past 69W, it doesn't take too much of a westerly movement to get between 74-76W.

You are right about that. If it moves on its current heading of 315 degrees and speeds up a little, it WILL get much closer to the coast much faster, and could affect more of the mid-Atlantic from Hatteras north. Any more west-northwest motion now would bring it closer to the coast, even land falling near Hatteras, but soon thereafter the 500mb trough will recurve it away to the northeast more sharply.

Realy, for me, the model output at 11PM is very key right now.

The Model output really means nothing in forecasting a system with such dynamic synoptic setup. No model can forecast completly accurately in these type of conditions... Not saying much but your best bet is to look where and how the through moves across the US and I see most models are not handling the trough really well. Not saying much about what it might do to Earl, but its more how Earl interacts with the trough and how it curves away.... Being my MET Professor here at OU was talking about this in our discussion today... Earl should continue its WNW to NW track until along the coastline of the OBX. The trough should slowly turn it N and to the NE. I think the current NHC track should be a little more west of its now prediction.

[BigA]

I would say that for Hatteras, the worst movement is a rapid WNW. For Points north, the worst movement is a rapid NW.

In any event, as far as I can tell, Earl looks to be moving more rapidly than the forecast says. The latest satellite image from 23:45 showed him a good bit past the halfway mark between the 18Z initialization and 6Z forecast point.

[hurricaneCW]

I think the the curve from 48 hrs to 72 hrs could be too sharp but right now the track works. If Earl decides to do something unpredictable or the trough prognosis changes, then the NHC will tell us and change things to fit the expected set up.