ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TropicalWXMA]

I think the the curve from 48 hrs to 72 hrs could be too sharp but right now the track works. If Earl decides to do something unpredictable or the trough prognosis changes, then the NHC will tell us and change things to fit the expected set up.

That's quite a lot of faith in the NHC!

[Stephanie]

I think the the curve from 48 hrs to 72 hrs could be too sharp but right now the track works. If Earl decides to do something unpredictable or the trough prognosis changes, then the NHC will tell us and change things to fit the expected set up.

That's quite a lot of faith in the NHC!

They are the official source of data on hurricanes. I know that I have faith in them.

[SouthFloridawx]

The interaction between Fiona and Earl is going to be interesting. Fiona circulation is nothing compared to Earl, however... It will be interesting to see what happens.

[hurricaneCW]

I would say that for Hatteras, the worst movement is a rapid WNW. For Points north, the worst movement is a rapid NW.

In any event, as far as I can tell, Earl looks to be moving more rapidly than the forecast says. The latest satellite image from 23:45 showed him a good bit past the halfway mark between the 18Z initialization and 6Z forecast point.

I agree. He could be north of the NHC forecast point by 3-4 hours which could make a huge difference in the long run. He'll probably end up a little to the east of their forecast point but any significant wobble to the west can quickly change that. If he were to move fast enough or the trough is slow enough, then Earl would have the potential to ride the left side of the cone from N.C to Massachusetts. This scenario is a long shot but it is on the table.

[Julanne]

If the two storms merge, Earl and Fiona, what would that mean for it's track and strength?

[BigA]

I'm not yet sold that Earl will absorb Fionia. Earl is moving a little more rapidly than forecast, and Fiona is still 11 degrees to the east and about 7 to the south. I think there's a good chance that Earl destroys Fiona, even if he doesn't absorb her.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not yet sold that Earl will absorb Fionia. Earl is moving a little more rapidly than forecast, and Fiona is still 11 degrees to the east and about 7 to the south. I think there's a good chance that Earl destroys Fiona, even if he doesn't absorb her.

If Fiona is sheared to the point where, she reverts back to an open wave... It guess it could be possible the southern portion of her could continue into the Caribbean. IMO... What do you think?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 226N, 692W, 115, 940, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

[TropicalWXMA]

I'm not yet sold that Earl will absorb Fionia. Earl is moving a little more rapidly than forecast, and Fiona is still 11 degrees to the east and about 7 to the south. I think there's a good chance that Earl destroys Fiona, even if he doesn't absorb her.

If Fiona is sheared to the point where, she reverts back to an open wave... It guess it could be possible the southern portion of her could continue into the Caribbean. IMO... What do you think?

Waters in the Caribbean would certainly support it!



But then again there's shear, etc to consider.

[johngaltfla]

Well, we don't see this kind of forecast in Atlantic City very often:

Atlantic City NJ
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Philadelphia, PA
Point Forecast: Atlantic City NJ
39.36°N 74.4°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 7:44 pm EDT Aug 31, 2010
Forecast Valid: 9pm EDT Aug 31, 2010-6pm EDT Sep 7, 2010


Hazardous weather condition(s):

Air Quality Alert


Tonight: Clear, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 92. West wind 8 to 13 mph becoming south.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 73. Southwest wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84. South wind between 7 and 16 mph.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Welcome to my world!

[johngaltfla]

I think the the curve from 48 hrs to 72 hrs could be too sharp but right now the track works. If Earl decides to do something unpredictable or the trough prognosis changes, then the NHC will tell us and change things to fit the expected set up.

I for one look forward to the early morning runs and let's pray it curves hard. An East Coast rider up the coastline with 100+mph winds would be a disaster unseen in our modern history. Most of the Northeastern residents have never been in a hurricane much less prepared for one.

[ozonepete]

The Model output really means nothing in forecasting a system with such dynamic synoptic setup. No model can forecast completly accurately in these type of conditions... Not saying much but your best bet is to look where and how the through moves across the US and I see most models are not handling the trough really well. Not saying much about what it might do to Earl, but its more how Earl interacts with the trough and how it curves away.... Being my MET Professor here at OU was talking about this in our discussion today... Earl should continue its WNW to NW track until along the coastline of the OBX. The trough should slowly turn it N and to the NE. I think the current NHC track should be a little more west of its now prediction.

"The Model output really means nothing in forecasting a system with such dynamic synoptic setup." !!!!

So what are you saying, use your eyes and throw the model output out? I've really never heard someone say the model output means nothing, and that if the synoptic situation is "dynamic" the models are useless. Just completely do not get why you would say that. And I surely respect all universities, but none of my teachers would ever say that. They would say the models have a hard time handling this and tell us where their weknesses are, but they would never say they mean nothing.

[cpdaman]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600

thru 845

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position. Looks to be moving nnw. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

I am back after 25 hours without power and internet. I am safe and dry as in my area in San Juan ,nothing bad occured except for the lack of power that affected more than 500,000 people in the island. Last night heavy showers with winds that I clocked at 36 mph with my anemometer moved thru but no damage occured in my area.In other areas in PR, many trees went down and some electric poles also went down but no flooding event occured as well no fatalitles. In other words PR dodged a big bullet.

[johngaltfla]

Hey Luis... Everything okay down there? Any damages incurred?

I am back after 25 hours without power and internet. I am safe and dry as in my area in San Juan ,nothing bad occured except for the lack of power that affected more than 500,000 people in the island. Last night heavy showers with winds that I clocked at 36 mph with my anemometer moved thru but no damage occured in my area.In other areas in PR, many trees went down and some electric poles also went down but no flooding event occured as well no fatalitles. In other words PR dodged a big bullet.

Glad to see you back Luis! Any reports from the BVI? It would appear the lack of Cape Verde seasons in years past will be accelerated this season and Earl is looking better tonight...

[AtlanticWind]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251230.GIF

Looks to be moving NNW earlier than expected , could be good news for the EC.

[Stephanie]

Well, we don't see this kind of forecast in Atlantic City very often:

Atlantic City NJ
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Philadelphia, PA
Point Forecast: Atlantic City NJ
39.36°N 74.4°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 7:44 pm EDT Aug 31, 2010
Forecast Valid: 9pm EDT Aug 31, 2010-6pm EDT Sep 7, 2010

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Welcome to my world!

Gee - thanks!