ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest.....yikes!

[abajan]

You know that this is going to get moved to the appropriate thread, right?

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0015 UTC 12.2N 31.9W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic
31/2345 UTC 22.6N 69.2W T4.5/5.5 EARL -- Atlantic
31/2345 UTC 16.7N 58.5W T2.0/2.0 FIONA -- Atlantic

[invest man]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Ch 9 at 6pm showed a run of their viper and showed it making landfall I believe around Swansboro area. IM

[Ivanhater]

Keep discussions about Earl in the official Earl thread.

[Javlin]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Thats the guys you really want to listen to anyway.

[UpTheCreek]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Skip Waters is da man! Well, kind of....... cough cough

[Stephanie]

I think the EWRC has neared completion due to the more visible eye starting to show up on satellite imagery. I have to say I'm still shocked this is a Cat 4 storm, when you think of a Cat 4, the current visual of Earl is not what normally comes to mind. Yesterday's Earl reminded me of a Cat 4, today's Earl looks no stronger than a high end Cat 2, low end 3, but looks can be deceiving I suppose. Tonight's recon mission should give us a good insight on what Earl is up to.

It certainly looks better than a Cat 2 to me.

[fig]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Ch 9 at 6pm showed a run of their viper and showed it making landfall I believe around Swansboro area. IM

Hmm that's interesting...

[UpTheCreek]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Ch 9 at 6pm showed a run of their viper and showed it making landfall I believe around Swansboro area. IM

Wow, how did they explain that scenario? Geez, I hope that doesn't happen!

[Tstormwatcher]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

Ch 9 at 6pm showed a run of their viper and showed it making landfall I believe around Swansboro area. IM

Hope that don't come true.

[brunota2003]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

That is what I am worried about. If it shifts to the west just 50 or 100 miles, hurricane force winds may very well come ashore as far west as New Bern, without the eye even crossing land.

[Tstormwatcher]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

That is what I am worried about. If it shifts to the west just 50 or 100 miles, hurricane force winds may very well come ashore as far west as New Bern, without the eye even crossing land.

I think thats what we are all worried about.

[seahawkjd]

So what is the front currently doing? I've been looking at it but I don't have a point of reference on if its running faster the expected, slower then expected, or right on track.

[Weather Watcher]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

You are right that front is moving slow. It is coming through my area with flooding rains and lots of lightning.
It was supposed to move through today but its finally here. Hope it makes it to curve Earl.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm kind of confused about something. Maybe you guys can help me out. I am looking at the Water Vapor Loop of the CONUS, and it has been my understanding that we are watching a trough that is expected to dig into the eastern United States. Correct?

Someone posted this image.



Now, if you look at the steering flow...



There is a large gap between the ridges of the ATL and the one over the CONUS. So it is moving around the periphery of the Subtropical Ridge, and as it does that... the Trough is going to break down the ridge over the Eastern United States, allowing the Westerlies to scoop it up in the process.

Because, if I were to look at that map without other knowledge... I would assume a more western component. But, the steering flow on the SE side of the Ridge in the Eastern US is very weak... So it is shooting the current GAP? (if you will)

Am I close on this one?

[invest man]

Dave Sawyer said that he did not have much trust in it at the time but he thought it was still worth showing. So I wonder if that model may have picked up on what Skip Waters said about the front that suppose to kick this to the NNE then NE could be picking up the delay. IM

[Dean4Storms]

This buoy will be interesting to watch tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[hurricaneCW]

Well I can tell you that the ridge will be firmly in place tomorrow and Thursday. Temps in the 90s expected here, over 10 degrees above normal.

[Weather Watcher]

Hey Tstormwatcher, what are the local mets saying they think Earl might do there in the Havelock/New Bern area?

Right now, ch12 is worried that the front is moving to slow and will not make it in time to curve earl away from us. Skip thinks that the models will shift west by tomorrow unless the front speds up. Haven't seen the others yet.

You are right that front is moving slow. It is coming through my area with flooding rains and lots of lightning.
It was supposed to move through today but its finally here. Hope it makes it to curve Earl.

Here's the link http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/Midwest/pxFronts.html