Interesting 12Z Aug 16 384-hr GFS Loop I Made....

[wxman57]

Take a look at this morning's 12Z GFS run. I made it into a loop:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/gfs12zaug16.gif
[url]

If you're on dial-up, the loop is about 1MB in size, but worth it. The GFS has been advertising an explosion of storms beginning this weekend for over a week. Note how it develops about 5 CV storms over the next 15 days. Look how each storm threatens the east U.S. coast but just misses. This "conveyor belt" is quite similar to the one that developed in 1995. But in 1995, the warm water was in the central to eastern Atlantic. This time the warm water is in the WESTERN Atlantic. The storms may not recurve as quickly.

Although the GFS progs the storms to all recurve JUST before hitting the U.S., note the blocking high that pops in and out off the east U.S. coast. Just a small timing difference between storms and instead of fish storms they may be major hurricanes hitting Florida or the Carolinas. Remember that Andrew was forecast to head north and out to sea but high pressure built north of it and shoved it west. Same thing could happen to any of these predicted storms.

If even half of the predicted storms actually develop, then it's going to be very busy out there in the Atlantic in the next 2 weeks.[/url]

[Guest]

Wxman - ok I'm going for the plunge and bringing this up on my DSL. How reliable do you think this is that many hours out?

Patricia

[wow]

I got the ol' "cannot be displayed" message..

[wxman57]

Well, I certainly wouldn't buy it on a storm-by-storm track. But I do believe the trend that it shows, and that trend is for a significant increase in CV tropical activity soon. Generally, I use the long-range GFS to indicate trends. Sometimes it does very well, sometimes not. I watch it every day looking to see if it hangs onto something for a while. In this case, it's been showing the same thing for over a week. I tend to believe it more when it indicates the same thing over and over again for days or a week or more. But still, the timing on such systems would be quite suspect. If the GFS is just 6-12 hours off in the timing of a predicted storm, then that could make the difference between a major storm missing or hitting the U.S.

[wxman57]

I got the ol' "cannot be displayed" message..

Try again, it's a simple animated GIF image.

[cycloneye]

And from here in Puerto Rico we are going to watch all that activity to see if all recurve or some of those CV systems threats the islands but here we are prepared for anything that the CV season may bring.

[OuterBanker]

lol

[Stormsfury]

That's the biggest key .... trends ... In LR prognostics (which I've not, by any means, proficient, but what I look for is a general trend or consistency with the pattern or the pattern that is being portrayed)...The GFS made me take notice when it had 6, then 8, then 10 consistent depictions of a CV train beginning to roll ... and now it continues that trend for a week now of CV development ... I've taken notice ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Kewl! But it is hard to believe that all that CV tropical activity would curve up to the north, surely something would stand a chance of coming our way.