ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[terrapintransit]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

Some Floyd info...
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19990915/

[sponger]

Floyd was the last time I will ever evac if not on the coast. Local evac 30 miles off the coast is the only way to go. I spent 6 hours and a 1/4 tank to go 20 miles. I was in SFL for Andrew and said I never to be stupid enough to stay for a major.

[emeraldislencguy]

it looks like the NHC is predicting the furthest west is now 75.2 compared to 75.0 at 5
so it is a tad to the left
would that be correct

[ozonepete]

Anyone know when the G-IV data will make it into the models? Shouldn't the GFS be coming out soon?

dunno. GFS is often out by now, but I keep checking and it's definitely not out yet. I would think that the G-IV data won't get into the models until tomorrow morning's 12Z runs.

Ooops! I corrected 00Z to 12Z

GFS doesn't start until 11:30.

Yeah, Jeremy, when I said that GFS is usually out by now, I meant 11PM EDT, but often you have to wait til 11:30PM, and then sometimes much later. Let's hope it coes out in the next half hour, cause I gotta hit the hay.

[sponger]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

Some Floyd info...
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19990915/

Lets hope this is not a repeat! I can't wait for the next model runs. Current forecast for Jax is 10-12 foot Thursday with N NE winds and 9 foot offshore glass for Friday. I will try to get a picture for the board!

[THead]

Track reminds me a lot of Floyd. Probably been mentioned already but how close in size, forecast track and intensity at this distance is this?

Some Floyd info...
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19990915/

Lets hope this is not a repeat! I can't wait for the next model runs. Current forecast for Jax is 10-12 foot Thursday with N NE winds and 9 foot offshore glass for Friday. I will try to get a picture for the board!

Ah yes, Floyd. I remember being on this msg boad back then, (whatever it was called back then) and watching Floyd come in, I was in Ft Laud. If I remember correctly, S. Fla did end up under a hurricane warning, and luckily it turned out to be a very nice day off from work. Floyd made his turn, raked the Bahamas severely, and continued on his destuctive path towards the Carolinas. I really HOPE Earl skirts the coast and just gives everyone on the eastern seaboard a blustery day with some heavy surf. Everyone stay prepared, stay safe, and stay tuned to the best collaborative source of info on the net, STORM2K!!

[sponger]

Lets hope this is not a repeat! I can't wait for the next model runs. Current forecast for Jax is 10-12 foot Thursday with N NE winds and 9 foot offshore glass for Friday. I will try to get a picture for the board![/quote]


Ah yes, Floyd. I remember being on this msg boad back then, (whatever it was called back then) and watching Floyd come in, I was in Ft Laud. If I remember correctly, S. Fla did end up under a hurricane warning, and luckily it turned out to be a very nice day off from work. Floyd made his turn, raked the Bahamas severely, and continued on his destuctive path towards the Carolinas. I really HOPE Earl skirts the coast and just gives everyone on the eastern seaboard a blustery day with some heavy surf. Everyone stay prepared, stay safe, and stay tuned to the best collaborative source of info on the net, STORM2K!! [/quote]

DefInately the best weather board on the internet. Would have saved me 6 hours in a car if I had known about it then!

[greels]

Reporting from Wareham Ma.....just glanced at our local Weatherbug and reporting for Friday night..."tropical force winds"....
fast Forward to Saturday...."Hurricane Earl" ..... I am not liking this in the least.....

Depending on what tomorrow's reports say, will make the decision whether or not to evacuate to further North....there is one road in to where we live and we are directly on the water on Buzzards Bay.....should a tree or two fall, we will be trapped here with no access out......

Having gone through two hurricanes in the span on one week (Hanna, Cat 1) and Ike (Cat 4) several days later, I do not wish to relive the horror and fear we felt back then, as we were living on Providenciales, TCI.

I am not one to rattle easily, but now I am reaching the point of extreme concern.....

As I have been telling all my friends and associates all summer, "MY gut" has been telling me this is the season we will get a hit one way or the other...I hope to be proved wrong....

One way or the other, I don't stand a chance of much sleep tonight as I have many friends on Provo who is due to get hit in about four hours...I may have relocated to the States, but still my heart remains on my beloved Island. I pray for their safety tonight.

Gretchen

[SouthFloridawx]

Definitely looks like the Outflow on the Southeast Quad of the system has been affected by the Outflow of Fiona. And she seems to be weakening a bit this evening. Any comments?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html

[sponger]

Anyone know what Bastardi's thoughts are on this?

[THead]

Reporting from Wareham Ma.....just glanced at our local Weatherbug and reporting for Friday night..."tropical force winds"....
fast Forward to Saturday...."Hurricane Earl" ..... I am not liking this in the least.....

Depending on what tomorrow's reports say, will make the decision whether or not to evacuate to further North....there is one road in to where we live and we are directly on the water on Buzzards Bay.....should a tree or two fall, we will be trapped here with no access out......

Having gone through two hurricanes in the span on one week (Hanna, Cat 1) and Ike (Cat 4) several days later, I do not wish to relive the horror and fear we felt back then, as we were living on Providenciales, TCI.

I am not one to rattle easily, but now I am reaching the point of extreme concern.....

As I have been telling all my friends and associates all summer, "MY gut" has been telling me this is the season we will get a hit one way or the other...I hope to be proved wrong....

One way or the other, I don't stand a chance of much sleep tonight as I have many friends on Provo who is due to get hit in about four hours...I may have relocated to the States, but still my heart remains on my beloved Island. I pray for their safety tonight.

Gretchen

Hi Gretchen,
I remember worrying about you thru Ike. Hadn't you just moved there too before Hanna and Ike, or am I remembering that wrong?

[SunnyThoughts]

Little spot of white showing up on the western side, way cold cloudtops

[ozonepete]

Little spot of white showing up on the western side, way cold cloudtops

Nice catch. Looks like there's one more round of strengthening coming on.

[dixiebreeze]

Can't connect to the NOAA tropical sat. page -- probably crashed by all the worried folks along the Eastern Seaboard!

[ozonepete]

Can't connect to the NOAA tropical sat. page -- probably crashed by all the worried folks along the Eastern Seaboard!

I've had that problem on and off all evening. Can't get in either right now. I'm sure you're right about the cause.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Floyd was the last time I will ever evac if not on the coast. Local evac 30 miles off the coast is the only way to go. I spent 6 hours and a 1/4 tank to go 20 miles. I was in SFL for Andrew and said I never to be stupid enough to stay for a major.

I Will stay for a 3 in Wilmington, but if it looks like it might come in as a borderline 3/4 I am leaving town.

[HurricaneQueen]

Reporting from Wareham Ma.....just glanced at our local Weatherbug and reporting for Friday night..."tropical force winds"....
fast Forward to Saturday...."Hurricane Earl" ..... I am not liking this in the least.....

Depending on what tomorrow's reports say, will make the decision whether or not to evacuate to further North....there is one road in to where we live and we are directly on the water on Buzzards Bay.....should a tree or two fall, we will be trapped here with no access out......

Having gone through two hurricanes in the span on one week (Hanna, Cat 1) and Ike (Cat 4) several days later, I do not wish to relive the horror and fear we felt back then, as we were living on Providenciales, TCI.

I am not one to rattle easily, but now I am reaching the point of extreme concern.....

As I have been telling all my friends and associates all summer, "MY gut" has been telling me this is the season we will get a hit one way or the other...I hope to be proved wrong....

One way or the other, I don't stand a chance of much sleep tonight as I have many friends on Provo who is due to get hit in about four hours...I may have relocated to the States, but still my heart remains on my beloved Island. I pray for their safety tonight.

Gretchen

Hi Gretchen,

Great to see you again although not under these circumstances. How well I remember us all following you last year through Ike! From now on, please give us fair warning where you will be located during hurricane seasons so we can steer clear!

I wish you well and please keep us posted.
Lynn

[dixiebreeze]

Ozone Pete, not linking to IR Makes me crazy!

[Recurve]

Some shear restricting outflow on the SW. Otherwise looking pretty healthy. Notice there's a chunk (technical term) of thunderstorms way off to the SE of the center. Or is that an advance band of Fiona?

I think the only good news is this won't be Hugo and it doesn't look to be a rainmaker that hangs around forever, it should be moving pretty quickly up the Eastern Seaboard.

Anyone who's worried about flooding, make plans to evacuate, even if it's only a few miles. I've been through enough storms now, some with almost no wind damage (except power out) but people got a lot of water -- Wilma, Rita and Georges to name some that affected us. I urge everyone on the east coast to look at evac zones and flood maps, bookmark your local NWS forecast office. No need to panic, just be aware. If the storm center stays off the coast, which is still probable, there's no need in most cases for people who are inland in sturdy structures and not in flood zones to do more than be ready for hurricane gusts and loss of power.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Recurve]

Some pop near the center. And look at those storms by the Leewards.