ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[ROCK]

as I said a few pages back I am wondering about what Ivan said about a carib movement....she is still moving at 20mph to the wnw....probably more closer to 290-300....is she going to put on the brakes as she nears Earl..and change direction? dont think so....

wondering just wondering is there is enough space between Earl and Fiona that the high has nosed down in front of her.....just something I was thinking about....anyway back to reality...

[Gustywind]

as I said a few pages back I am wondering about what Ivan said about a carib movement....she is still moving at 20mph to the wnw....probably more closer to 290-300....is she going to put on the brakes as she nears Earl..and change direction? dont think so....

wondering just wondering is there is enough space between Earl and Fiona that the high has nosed down in front of her.....just something I was thinking about....anyway back to reality...

Someone was speaking about interaction between Earl and Fiona looks like it could be one right one, who knows?
Hope that this thing don't bring so much surprises during the night. Be vigilant islanders.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Convection fairly on the increase in this blob...

[HURAKAN]

Fiona finding that brotherly love doesn't happen in the tropics!!!

[JtSmarts]

I'm looking forward to seeing if JB has changed his mind also on Fiona being a US threat.

I suspect that hardly a mention will be made.

He wrote this on his twitter about 5 hours ago.

System behind Fiona looking pretty good. Still not convinced Fiona suddenly turns northwest and north

[SootyTern]

It looks like to me that the distance is increasing between Earl and Fiona tonight; he seems to be picking up speed to the NW while she slows down or stays the same. Perhaps only an optical illusion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

I'm wondering if the models were picking up on the NW blob being absorbed into Earl. The center is further south and heading west, so the models may have had a hard time following the actual center of Fiona. If this is the case, that changes things as Earl moves far enough away. Just an observation that is still in process.

[cycloneye]

Hey Ivan,the San Juan NWS updated discussion tonight thinks the same.

FIONA HAS SENT OFF A POCKET OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CIRCULATION OF EARL BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE LEFT A REMNANT WHOSE CENTER IS DUE EAST OF
DOMINICA. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST. IF THIS IS SO...THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FIONA MAY BE SLOWING DOWN WHILE MOVING
DUE WEST. IF CURRENT MOVEMENT PERSISTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION COULD ARRIVE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT IT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING. CURRENT OVERNIGHT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE HOLDING SO WILL NOT UPDATE ZONES AT THIS
TIME.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[HURAKAN]

It looks like to me that the distance is increasing between Earl and Fiona tonight; he seems to be picking up speed to the NW while she slows down or stays the same. Perhaps only an optical illusion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

it has increased to 999 nm ... it was 822 nm this morning and 738 nm this afternoon

[Ivanhater]

Hey Ivan,the San Juan NWS updated discussion tonight thinks the same.

FIONA HAS SENT OFF A POCKET OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CIRCULATION OF EARL BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE LEFT A REMNANT WHOSE CENTER IS DUE EAST OF
DOMINICA. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST. IF THIS IS SO...THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FIONA MAY BE SLOWING DOWN WHILE MOVING
DUE WEST. IF CURRENT MOVEMENT PERSISTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION COULD ARRIVE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT IT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING. CURRENT OVERNIGHT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE HOLDING SO WILL NOT UPDATE ZONES AT THIS
TIME.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Haaa! Great timing Luis

[SootyTern]

Fiona might become more interesting than we thought earlier.

[Sanibel]

My eye thinks Fiona is headed WNW and is located ENE of Guadeloupe. I'm not sure if it is succumbing to Earl or not?

[Macrocane]

The first visibles will be helpful tomorrow to see if a center still exists and if it is getting trapped into Earl's circulation or just moving in the projected path.

[Gustywind]

[tolakram]

I think MIMIC-TPW is most revealing here. The circulation is being absorbed ... really not sure if anything can survive.



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[BigB0882]

If the models were seeing that blob of convection being eaten by Earl and not realizing she could still survive and move W, well wow! We could be in for a real surprise and a huge change to her track. Maybe she will completely fizzle but maybe she will blow up and tear through the Caribbean? This could be the one that really shocks everyone this year and fools the models.

[blp]

Fiona kicking up some nice convection tonight. As some have stated it seems like the energy is splitting in two but the low seems to be closer to the southern half.

[boca]

I'm not sure Fiona's going to be sucked or absorbed into Earl outflow anymore.I think the track of Fiona might change.Like BLP said I think too the low is with the southern part of the system.

[blp]

Looks like circulation center is on the north side of the southern blob based on radar below. Recon will confirm shortly though.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html