ATL: FIONA - Models

[ROCK]

What time does the EURO run again?

in about 30 minutes

[TravelingFoodie]

Hi, This is my second post although I have been reading this forum for the past few days. So please forgive me if what I write sounds uneducated or amateurish.

I found this forum when I started doing research on the various hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic since I am supposed to be traveling to Bermuda from Sept 2 - Sept 7. I noticed today that the latest forecasts have Fiona traveling what looks to be pretty close to the west of Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday. Do you think that this is cause for concern? Should I still go on the trip as scheduled? I know from my short time reading this forum that forecasts change constantly so it is difficult to predict what will happen a few days out, but just want to be sure that I'm not traveling right towards what could become a hurricane.

Thank you!

[LowndesCoFire]

He never pulled Fiona stats...if he did you would find a whole bunch of US landfalls.

SO we are to follow the CLIMO model everyone!! disregard any other solution since climo is the correct guess ......your argument holds no water my friend....

Used the same program wxman was using the other day running it within 25nm of Fiona's last advisory position. Saw close to a 50/50 chance at affecting CONUS I would say.

[x-y-no]

12z Euro is way east with Fiona again - loses it in 48 hours.

[x-y-no]

Hi, This is my second post although I have been reading this forum for the past few days. So please forgive me if what I write sounds uneducated or amateurish.

I found this forum when I started doing research on the various hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic since I am supposed to be traveling to Bermuda from Sept 2 - Sept 7. I noticed today that the latest forecasts have Fiona traveling what looks to be pretty close to the west of Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday. Do you think that this is cause for concern? Should I still go on the trip as scheduled? I know from my short time reading this forum that forecasts change constantly so it is difficult to predict what will happen a few days out, but just want to be sure that I'm not traveling right towards what could become a hurricane.

Thank you!

In your place, I would stick with my plans. Nothing is absolutely certain, but right now it's looking like Fiona will be pretty weak if she follows that track, due to outflow from Earl.

As always, rely on the National Hurricane Center for official information.

[gboudx]

Hi, This is my second post although I have been reading this forum for the past few days. So please forgive me if what I write sounds uneducated or amateurish.

I found this forum when I started doing research on the various hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic since I am supposed to be traveling to Bermuda from Sept 2 - Sept 7. I noticed today that the latest forecasts have Fiona traveling what looks to be pretty close to the west of Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday. Do you think that this is cause for concern? Should I still go on the trip as scheduled? I know from my short time reading this forum that forecasts change constantly so it is difficult to predict what will happen a few days out, but just want to be sure that I'm not traveling right towards what could become a hurricane.

Thank you!

I understand your concern and have had to make travel decisions based on tropical weather. But I don't think anyone is gonna tell you "yay" or "nay" on if you should make the trip. IMO, all you can do is use the information you have at the moment and decide if you should go or not. It's frustrating because it could turn out to be just fine, or it could turn out to be nasty. Best of luck you you!

[x-y-no]

12z GFDL takes Fiona across Bermuda as a weak TS.

[artist]

you know the ganging up or sniping at others gets really old. Discussing is one thing. You don't like what someone says, and can't make an argument of that with decency, hit ignore.
Maturity shows in doing exactly that.

[gatorcane]

Trends are out to sea on this one which has been my thinking for several days now. As expected the Euro makes its shift right and is also well out to sea. Those in the US wanting a storm to come their way should probably start looking elsewhere.

Gator, suggesting a recurve on every storm will make anybody right most of the time.

So will following climatology.
Most of the time the recurve is the right guess.
And when Wxman pulls together statistics that show the huge percentage of systems that DO NOT affect the CONUS he is telling us what "should" happen.
People love to reject the statistics. I love to listen to ther arguments against logic!
Keep on mind the "rarity" is when climatology DOES NOT hold true.
Every once in a while Mother Mature throws a curve ball at us eschewing climatology, just to keep us honest!!

Thanks FCI, you make excellent points.

Climatology was only a small part of why I thought Fiona would not be an issue, but it certainly was a consideration in my forecast for this system. The ECMWF was the outlier and all of the other models were showing a different solution (and were generally in good agreement with each other), so its hard to believe the ECMWF doom and gloom.

[caneseddy]

The 00Z GFS run at 36 hours is finally picking up Fiona as a closed low for the first time but very very weak

Also, our favorite met JB had this to say at 10:00 pm:

"Fiona is an enigma. What may be happening is a piece is leaving the storm and the models think that is the storm! There is certainly an area of thunderstorms continuing west while the area on the northwest part of the storm is getting pulled northwest."

[ROCK]

yep.... so maybe she is not dead after all......she is booking it west right now at 20...distance between her and Earl is increasing...no signs of her turning into Earl's out flow attm...

[blp]

I would not say it is closed but it acknowledges its existence and does not show absorption which is quite different that before.

[South Texas Storms]

wow not many people/models saw this coming. if fiona survives and continues trekking westward into the caribbean, could she eventually be GOM bound? i know she still has to get past earl first...but if she does

[Evil Jeremy]

wow not many people/models saw this coming. if fiona survives and continues trekking westward into the caribbean, could she eventually be GOM bound? i know she still has to get past earl first...but if she does

There are still a lot of variables. It is more than likely that this will recurve. That's not to say that it might sneak back under the ridge (forecasting upset of the season), but there is no reason to panic. It is more than likely that you will not feel a blip of an effect from Fiona.

[boca]

I'm not completely sold on Fiona getting pulled into Earls flow but when I look at the sat pic the southern part of the storm is booking westbound.The NW part of the storm is being sucked into Earl while the rest is moving west. I never seen a storm get cut in two like this.I want to see what Fiona looks like tomorrow morning because the distance is increasing between the two storms.

[shah8]

00z GFDL agrees with old CMC/Euro solutions and drops Fiona to bend back west at about Jacksonville's latitude. It deepens Fiona into a moderately strong tropical storm in the process at hr126. Earl in this scenario looks mostly like the 00z HWRF scenario--closer to shore and hits Maine's border with Canada. Take that for what you will since this is Fiona's run.

[chrisnnavarre]

wow not many people/models saw this coming. if fiona survives and continues trekking westward into the caribbean, could she eventually be GOM bound? i know she still has to get past earl first...but if she does

I saw it coming earlier today, she has always shown a good surface circulation and continued booking west at a high rate of speed under Earl. At least that was the way it looked on visible satellite. This is what happens when we put too much faith in models......if this hits the loop current in the GOM then I have thoughts of, well I won't mention the "K" word until we have a better idea of what this is going to do...

[bob rulz]

Fiona is certainly a very odd storm. It's not all that often that we get to see how a tropical system behaves when coming into such close proximity to a major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

484
WHXX01 KWBC 011219
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1219 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL082010) 20100901 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.2N  60.9W   20.7N  63.7W   23.2N  66.0W   26.1N  67.5W
BAMD    18.2N  60.9W   20.0N  63.6W   21.7N  65.6W   22.5N  66.9W
BAMM    18.2N  60.9W   20.3N  63.6W   22.3N  65.7W   24.0N  67.1W
LBAR    18.2N  60.9W   20.2N  63.2W   22.1N  65.4W   23.6N  67.2W
SHIP        50KTS          55KTS          58KTS          59KTS
DSHP        50KTS          55KTS          58KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200   100906  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.2N  67.8W   35.5N  62.5W   41.0N  55.3W   46.4N  44.7W
BAMD    22.2N  68.3W   20.2N  73.1W   18.5N  79.4W   18.3N  86.4W
BAMM    24.9N  67.9W   24.7N  69.0W   23.6N  71.7W   23.3N  75.6W
LBAR    24.6N  68.6W   25.3N  70.4W   22.8N  70.8W   21.5N  74.7W
SHIP        56KTS          49KTS          49KTS          41KTS
DSHP        56KTS          49KTS          49KTS          41KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.2N LONCUR =  60.9W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  16.8N LONM12 =  58.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  54.4W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =  120NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  75NM


[RevDodd]

Perhaps folks with a greater knowledge of tropical development can help me with this...

As of now, Fiona looks like a viable entity, gaining organization and some much-needed distance from Earl. At the same time, just about every model shows the ridge rebuilding across the Atlantic ... a pretty imposing ridge as well.

Given those two items, how are the same models showing Fiona (the ones that show her at all) breezing off to the north and northeast? It seems a pretty substantial roadblock to me.

Thanks for any input and observation!