ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[fox13weather]

As I mentioned a few days ago, unless the eye comes within 50-75 miles of the coast then the impacts to the United States mainland will be minimal. Fast moving storms paralleling the east coast usually do not cause much damage, except for beach erosion and over wash. There is a huge difference between the conditions to the east of the center than the west of the center.

[THead]

Reporting from Wareham Ma.....just glanced at our local Weatherbug and reporting for Friday night..."tropical force winds"....
fast Forward to Saturday...."Hurricane Earl" ..... I am not liking this in the least.....

Depending on what tomorrow's reports say, will make the decision whether or not to evacuate to further North....there is one road in to where we live and we are directly on the water on Buzzards Bay.....should a tree or two fall, we will be trapped here with no access out......

Having gone through two hurricanes in the span on one week (Hanna, Cat 1) and Ike (Cat 4) several days later, I do not wish to relive the horror and fear we felt back then, as we were living on Providenciales, TCI.

I am not one to rattle easily, but now I am reaching the point of extreme concern.....

As I have been telling all my friends and associates all summer, "MY gut" has been telling me this is the season we will get a hit one way or the other...I hope to be proved wrong....

One way or the other, I don't stand a chance of much sleep tonight as I have many friends on Provo who is due to get hit in about four hours...I may have relocated to the States, but still my heart remains on my beloved Island. I pray for their safety tonight.

Gretchen

Hi Gretchen,

Great to see you again although not under these circumstances. How well I remember us all following you last year through Ike! From now on, please give us fair warning where you will be located during hurricane seasons so we can steer clear!

I wish you well and please keep us posted.
Lynn

Haha Lynn, you managed to say what I was thinking. Gretchen, you obviously know what to do....keep yourself and your family safe...its kind of weird how these things are following you around the last couple of years though!

[sponger]

Floyd was the last time I will ever evac if not on the coast. Local evac 30 miles off the coast is the only way to go. I spent 6 hours and a 1/4 tank to go 20 miles. I was in SFL for Andrew and said I never to be stupid enough to stay for a major.

I Will stay for a 3 in Wilmington, but if it looks like it might come in as a borderline 3/4 I am leaving town.

Wilmington is a great town! Just found that out in July when we went up for my brothers wedding. One of the cheap hotels off I 95 would be perfect for a local evac.

[Ivanhater]

It better get back on topic quick in here or vacations will be flying.

[HURAKAN]

RECON should find a weaker system

[ROCK]

low end 3 or upper 2 IMO...eye open to the sw....

[AJC3]

It better get back on topic quick in here or vacations will be flying.

The OT posts have been duly disposed of.

Let me echo the above warning...don't let things degenerate in this thread like that again. That's what we have PM's for. Keep it relevant, and flame-free, or warnings/suspensions will be given out.

[brunota2003]

Just a quick update on this buoy (as of 12:50 a.m.)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

Pressure is 28.95 inches, or 980 millibars, and falling rapidly. Wave height is 37 feet, and it has recorded 1 minute sustained winds of up to 62 knots, or 71 mph (at the time of the update, the winds were at 58 knots, or about 67 mph). The winds are out of the North, which means that the eye is to the east of the buoy currently.

[Steve]

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.54 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[emeraldislencguy]

to the pro mets
do yall think hurricane warnings will be issued any time on wed

[brunota2003]

Can someone run both the degrees and the speed between the recent points for the eye? Here are the coordinates for the 8 pm, 11 pm and the 2 am advisories...would like to see the long term (6 hour, or 8 pm to 2 am) and short term (3 hour, or 11 pm to 2 am) motions, thanks!

8 pm:
22.5N 69.1W

11 pm:
23.0N 69.9W

2 am:
23.5N 70.7W

Just glancing at the coordinates, seems the speed and direction have not changed at all, though.

[emeraldislencguy]

i cant beleive there has almost been an hour between comments on here
seems more concerned about other stuff then talking about earl

[Brent]

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 64.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 79.6 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.59 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.78 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Sustained hurricane force at that buoy and a pressure down in the 960's.

[brunota2003]

That buoy has a pressure of 967 millibars (lowest was 28.57 inches and still falling very rapidly...-0.78 for the PTDY). The highest 1 minute sustained winds are now 68.4 knots.

[brunota2003]

to the pro mets
do yall think hurricane warnings will be issued any time on wed

I'm not a promet, but I will say I believe chances are hurricane warnings will be hoisted either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening...along with most likely tropical storm warnings.

[Brent]

to the pro mets
do yall think hurricane warnings will be issued any time on wed

I'm not a promet, but I will say I believe chances are hurricane warnings will be hoisted either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening...along with most likely tropical storm warnings.

Definitely some kind of warning tomorrow(later today now). Also expect to see watches extended further north.

[ncweatherwizard]

to the pro mets
do yall think hurricane warnings will be issued any time on wed

I'm not a promet, but I will say I believe chances are hurricane warnings will be hoisted either tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening...along with most likely tropical storm warnings.

Definitely some kind of warning tomorrow(later today now). Also expect to see watches extended further north.

The TS Watches will probably get extended in the morning. Expect TS Warnings in the Hurricane Watch area sometime tomorrow as well. If the track still warrants so Wednesday night, then we'll probably see a Hurricane Warning along part of the NC coast.

[brunota2003]

The pressure at the buoy got down to 28.10 inches, or 952 millibars, and it is still falling (PTDY is -1.09 in), The wave height is at 48.6 feet, and the max 1 minute winds were recorded at 2:40 am, 71.3 knots. The wind direction is from the NNE...perhaps the eye is passing just to the south of the buoy? This is incredible that it has survived thus far!

[weatherSnoop]

The pressure at the buoy got down to 28.10 inches, or 952 millibars, and it is still falling (PTDY is -1.09 in), The wave height is at 48.6 feet, and the max 1 minute winds were recorded at 2:40 am, 71.3 knots. The wind direction is from the NNE...perhaps the eye is passing just to the south of the buoy? This is incredible that it has survived thus far!

I was impressed it lasted thru the last reading...48 ft seas????? wow

[emeraldislencguy]

is anyone else having a hard time pulling up staellite pics from the nhc sitr