ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[brunota2003]

It's been that way all day.

[supercane]

Latest:

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks for postig what you can
would love to see more of the sat pics

[emeraldislencguy]

how does earl look now
since I cant see any sat pics

[Time_Zone]

is the EWRC FINALLY complete?

[supercane]

Latest VDM:
000
URNT12 KNHC 010739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 01/07:23:10Z
B. 23 deg 43 min N
070 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 82 kt
E. 057 deg 18 nm
F. 135 deg 111 kt
G. 051 deg 34 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 12 C / 3045 m
J. 18 C / 3046 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED, RAGGED
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0907A EARL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 116 KT NW QUAD 05:29:50Z
;
Mostly status quo with only 1 mb drop in pressure, no stronger winds recorded. Despite the microwave image I posted above, no evidence of dual eyewalls or double wind maxima on recon to indicate ongoing ERC.

[tailgater]

Let me know if yall can bring this link up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb-s.html

how does earl look now
since I cant see any sat pics

[Brent]

Let me know if yall can bring this link up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb-s.html

how does earl look now
since I cant see any sat pics

Not much different than it did earlier. Pretty steady in intensity per recon:

[bob rulz]

It's remarkable that this has remained so steady in intensity for so long.

I would love to see this bomb out today, and obviously follow closer to the eastern edge of the forecast.

[tailgater]

Not as good as the NOAA site but if you can't see anything else>
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Brent]

Down to 125 mph(Cat 3)

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.

[Brent]

[Brent]

THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

[CapeCod1995]

how will earl effect cape cod as of now?

[HURAKAN]

Earl and Fiona

[HurricaneQueen]

how will earl effect cape cod as of now?

Sorry, but IMHO, it is still too early to tell. Please keep watching your local meteorologists and check back here often as the time gets a little closer. "Prepare for the worst but hope for the best" has become an S2K slogan. Have several plans in place depending on what later advisories indicate. Stock up on hurricane supplies a you will need them whether you stay or evacuate. Check this link for hurricane preparedness http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=30:

There are still too many variables to nail the exact track at this time. You should have a better idea later tonight or tomorrow but there are often last minute surprises. Good luck to you and all of the people in the potential path of Earl. On the plus side, he has weakened some on the last advisory.

Lynn

[Riptide]

It appears Earl has almost completed his EWR(Eyewall Replacement Cycle) but dry air could still be a problem based on the water vapor. Perhaps he will obtain category 4 status again.

[KWT]

Earl looks good in that image above!

Going to be a close call for the Outer Banks, still too early to know though the fact its speeding up a little to the NW is a good sign that the steering currents are getting stronger.

Going to be interesting to watch this one once it gets closer and into radar range.

[Riptide]

Earl looks good in that image above!

Going to be a close call for the Outer Banks, still too early to know though the fact its speeding up a little to the NW is a good sign that the steering currents are getting stronger.

Going to be interesting to watch this one once it gets closer and into radar range.

Yeah, definately. It is pretty cool how Earl is modifying the airmass around him. The increase in forward speed is pretty interesting, could it account for the westward trend in the models? Earl is already pretty far west, I'd really like to see how all of this plays out, fun times ahead!

[anarchiver19]

Hmm...went to sleep with the local meteorologists saying it looks like we can breathe a sigh of relief here in SE VA. Woke up under a hurricane watch. I know that they can't tell us for sure what is going to happen until it gets closer, but this is definitely nerve wrecking! The thing that still makes me wonder is that they (the local mets) don't seem overly concerned...even though we're now under the watch...and they are saying that the track has been moved further east-yet the NHC said it has moved west...??? I guess it's another day of watching and waiting...