ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

LOCATION...18.2N 60.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[HURAKAN]

Isn't that the center NE of Barbados? And looks like on NHC predicted pat.

Barbados or Barbuda? lol

[Boriken]

sorry LOL I edited it already

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting the models are trending back to the solutions from a few days ago.. but the reasoning is different. before when the models ( euro mainly) left Fiona behind with a building ridge was because it had Fiona never getting as close as it is now. But now the rest of the models are coming around due the building ridge between Earl and Fiona causing Earl to pull out before absorbing Fiona and even allowing a very strong ridge build back in pushing Fiona back west. Going to be interesting to see what happens especially since the shear Earl experienced when danielle pullout wont be as bad as the shear that fiona should experience from Earl pulling out simply because Earl does not have a digging upper trough to its east creating a outflow channel to the SE that would create more shear.

[TheBurn]

Staying away from the Big E'...
-

[BigA]

Fiona is no closer to Earl now than Fran was to Edouard in 1996, but admittedly, Edouard was a somewhat smaller (if equally intense as Earl) and Fran was a bit larger and better organized. Still, it might be a useable baseline.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 08, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 182N, 609W, 50, 998, TS

60 mph

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.2N
60.9W...OR ABOUT 70 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N NEAR BARBADOS
TO 18N NEAR ANGUILLA AND BARBUDA BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[Blown Away]

Reading the Fiona 5am disco, if Fiona gets trapped under the ridge are they still predicting dissipation? I understood why Fiona was going to dissipate if it were eaten by Earl, but if left behind what conditions will still lead to dissipation?

[hurricaneCW]

Wow this thing is really 60 mph, I'm surprised. Looks like a mess to me and the shear should rip it apart in the next few days.

[plasticup]

The global models still show absorption, but the fine ones don't. They are consistently keeping Fiona separate, and raking her directly over Bermuda. Then it looks like the steering currents weaken and she may dawdle for a while.

[HURAKAN]

Wow this thing is really 60 mph, I'm surprised. Looks like a mess to me and the shear should rip it apart in the next few days.

RECON measured 57 knots FL winds (about 50 knots at the surface) and 998 mb

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Blown Away]

It looks like Fiona will get left behind and is getting stronger. I'm anxious to see what the models do with Fiona if trapped under the ridge, will they send her west? I'm surprised there is little chatter because it seems Fiona is fighting back!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Interesting the models are trending back to the solutions from a few days ago.. but the reasoning is different. before when the models ( euro mainly) left Fiona behind with a building ridge was because it had Fiona never getting as close as it is now. But now the rest of the models are coming around due the building ridge between Earl and Fiona causing Earl to pull out before absorbing Fiona and even allowing a very strong ridge build back in pushing Fiona back west. Going to be interesting to see what happens especially since the shear Earl experienced when danielle pullout wont be as bad as the shear that Fiona should experience from Earl pulling out simply because Earl does not have a digging upper trough to its east creating a outflow channel to the SE that would create more shear.

I am starting to see what you are talking about. (I don't like the Fran analogies one bit...but that's not scientific) Just looking at the GFS the ridge looks like it could building behind Earl and set up the block. Since the global views don't have Fiona it's hard to see it. Until now I had been thinking Earls outflows and low pressure would either dissipate Fiona or at a minimum keep her in his wake. It at least seems possible that the opposite could occur. This is another case of synoptic timing.

[plasticup]

It looks like Fiona will get left behind and is getting stronger. I'm anxious to see what the models do with Fiona if trapped under the ridge, will they send her west? I'm surprised there is little chatter because it seems Fiona is fighting back!

HWRF looks like a recurve. GFDL seems less sure - at the end of the model period it's still wandering just north of Bermuda. The steering currents are definitely going to be weak though.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah the GFDL is picking up a pause that was not there before.

[Macrocane]

What a surprise, Fiona was not aborbed and is now intensifying, I guess this is the real 2010 and not the one we saw with Bonnie and Colin.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like Fiona will get left behind and is getting stronger. I'm anxious to see what the models do with Fiona if trapped under the ridge, will they send her west? I'm surprised there is little chatter because it seems Fiona is fighting back!

HWRF looks like a recurve. GFDL seems less sure - at the end of the model period it's still wandering just north of Bermuda. The steering currents are definitely going to be weak though.

expect the models to start showing more stalling, loop or wsw motion solutions. this can be seen because all the previous runs had fiona accelerating right along with Earl but Fiona is slowing down and earl is now moving faster than fiona so the distance between them is increasing and should continue as Fiona will likely continue to slow down. this is a complete opposite outcome from the previous model runs. they will have to adjust for this.

[blazess556]

good site to follow fionas movement.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#