ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[micktooth]

you are right
the tourists here just dont see it as a problem
since it has been downgraded to a 3 they think it it even less of a big deal
they just dont understand how severe a cat 3 can be

So often it's just a matter of perspective:
"Downgraded to Cat 3? Oh, that's not so bad"
"Upgraded to Cat 3? OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!"

Either way, satellite presentation is improving. If the dry air is expelled I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to Category 4 strength.

edit: @wx247, Ahh, subtlety! I look forward to your explanation. There is so much knowledge here.

I actually heard a met on TWC the other night say Earl might even become a "weak" Cat 5, even my son laughed at that one!

[Malcome]

Looks like this beauty is going to go right up through Nova Scotia, and it may possibly be a cat 2 when it gets here. I think it is time for me to get my house ready. Sigh.

[sandyb]

looking forward to seeing your graphic
also the 11 am should be interesting

what do you think its gonna say..? was talking to a met friend of mine he thinks they will move it a little back towards the east told me to keep an eye on that we shall see

[wx247]

Okay, so let me try to explain...

* The left image is the forecasted image, crudely drawn, of the trough in red with the track of Earl in green.

* The right image is my observation of the trough in red, with the potential impact of the track of Earl in green.

What this is showing is not what I expect to happen with Earl necessarily... but just how the subtlety of how the trough lines up exactly can have a significant impact on the track of Earl with it so close to the coast!!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xironman]

My concern with the front and the trough, if you look at it, is how it is aligned. It seems to be a bit deeper with flow more SSW to NNE rather than a true SW to NE. This would have some implication on the how sharp the right turn would be in that it would lessen the angle of curvature.

As always this is just my $.04 and the Storm2K disclaimer applies. You should always pay attention to official sources for your information.

Usually when you get a negatively tilted trough coming along is slows the progression of the surface low to the east, that's how we get our big northeaster's here. I agree the tilt will be important as well. Of course the usual disclaimer applies, in that I have no idea what I am talking about.

Looked at your graphic, if it gets to situation where the trough is "pointing" to 5 o'clock instead of 7 then that is the negative tilt I was talking about.

[Time_Zone]

Looks like this beauty is going to go right up through Nova Scotia, and it may possibly be a cat 2 when it gets here. I think it is time for me to get my house ready. Sigh.

I guess it depends on where you live in Nova Scotia...if it takes the current track the NHC has I should be good up here in Cape Breton.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The front is a bit stronger and slower. Not what we want. Also, if Earl speeds up just a little he will arrive closer to the coast. Again, it's a timing thing.
One other note, tourists don't seem to be the least concerned. It is a beautiful sunny day and there isn’t enough wind to fly my hurricane flags.
Perfect surfing waves, about four to six feet and clean. Hundreds of surfers are in the water.

I guess none of them have been through a hurricane before and have no idea how quickly things can change.

Day of reckoning ahead I'm afraid.

Every kid growing up at the beach in NC knows 2-3 days out from any storm where they post warnings or watches you head to the Outer Banks for the best surfing of the year. They also know that they need to get out of the water and head home when the sun goes down the day before the storm is to hit. It's a normal thing. What is surprising is that it is only hundreds of surfers and not a couple thousand. Back in the 80s and 90s (when I was much younger) my friends and I used to go stay at this little beach side motel on Ocracoke before a storm. We would take a couple hours out of our day to help board up a couple windows at the hotel and the owner charged us next to nothing to stay the night.

[sandyb]

The front is a bit stronger and slower. Not what we want. Also, if Earl speeds up just a little he will arrive closer to the coast. Again, it's a timing thing.
One other note, tourists don't seem to be the least concerned. It is a beautiful sunny day and there isn’t enough wind to fly my hurricane flags.
Perfect surfing waves, about four to six feet and clean. Hundreds of surfers are in the water.

I guess none of them have been through a hurricane before and have no idea how quickly things can change.

Day of reckoning ahead I'm afraid.

Every kid growing up at the beach in NC knows 2-3 days out from any storm where they post warnings or watches you head to the Outer Banks for the best surfing of the year. They also know that they need to get out of the water and head home when the sun goes down the day before the storm is to hit. It's a normal thing. What is surprising is that it is only hundreds of surfers and not a couple thousand. Back in the 80s and 90s (when I was much younger) my friends and I used to go stay at this little beach side motel on Ocracoke before a storm. We would take a couple hours out of our day to help board up a couple windows at the hotel and the owner charged us next to nothing to stay the night.

on your signiture did you leave out Dennis (twice three times) i know it was a long process for him visiting us

[fig]

For those of us in SE NC, this track is looking a lot like Bonnie back in 1998...

[jabman98]

Okay, so let me try to explain...

* The left image is the forecasted image, crudely drawn, of the trough in red with the track of Earl in green.

* The right image is my observation of the trough in red, with the potential impact of the track of Earl in green.

What this is showing is not what I expect to happen with Earl necessarily... but just how the subtlety of how the trough lines up exactly can have a significant impact on the track of Earl with it so close to the coast!!!

Really interesting image (I've removed it for quote). Thanks for drawing it. It really shows how subtle differences could have a big impact on where a hurricane goes. The front is definitely making it a challenge to say where Earl is headed.

[emeraldislencguy]

yes it does look like Bonnie

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

Well when there's not a cloud in the sky and temperatures are in the 90s, it's easy to see why people don't seem too concerned about it. It's always that calm before the storm that leads to complacency until it's too late. There's no reason as of now why Earl shouldn't approach the Carolinas as a high end 2, low end 3. The shear isn't too bad for a large system like Earl. The dry air may weaken it but Earl seems to be holding his own for now. Maybe the gulf stream could even aid the storm once it approaches it.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

on your signiture did you leave out Dennis (twice three times) i know it was a long process for him visiting us[/quote]

No, Dennis passed me to the north and gave me nothing more than a little rain and some school closings.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

For those of us in SE NC, this track is looking a lot like Bonnie back in 1998...

Where did you get this image? It is quite concerting.

[fig]

Where did you get this image? It is quite concerting.

I actually got it from Wikipedia

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Where did you get this image? It is quite concerting.

I actually got it from Wikipedia

So is that actually Bonnie's path or a projected of Earl? I am confused.

[AJF0602]

it's Bonnies old path.

[xironman]

See how the trough is swinging to the right.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[baitism]

Dry air should be about gone in another 12-18 hours.