ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[neospaceblue]

Awesome...we're on our way to gaston, the manliest storm of the season

The one that scares me is when we get to IGOR.
Can't be a very friendly storm.......
(I think of Dr. Frankenstein's assistant)

The "I" storm is rarely a friendly one.

Ida, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore and Iris are a great example of that.

[x-y-no]

So that’s why 98L disappeared from the S2K header graphic:



This thing is developing unbelievably fast, man!

Actually, there's been something funky with that all along - it shows up for short periods but most of the time it's been missing. Don't know why.

[cyclonic chronic]

wow nhc called it t.d. 9

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

[AussieMark]

Awesome...we're on our way to gaston, the manliest storm of the season

The one that scares me is when we get to IGOR.
Can't be a very friendly storm.......
(I think of Dr. Frankenstein's assistant)

The "I" storm is rarely a friendly one.

Yeah like Ivan the Terrible

[WmE]

From 10% probability yesterday to TD today. Anything can happen in the tropics.

[SFLcane]

[WmE]

But for every Ivan there is an Irene, which didn't do anything. Still however I storms are mostly scary.

[AussieMark]

will the models that didn't develop it find it now that it is here?

[fci]

:uarrow:

But for every Ivan there is an Irene, which didn't do anything. Still however I storms are mostly scary.

There was an Irene that flooded South Florida pretty badly.
I fear the "I"

[x-y-no]

From the discussion:

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
DISTINGUISHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...AND THE GFDL AND
HWRF HURRICANE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM-MEDIUM MODEL. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER TRACK PREDICTION
SINCE THEY WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE DEPRESSION.

[CrazyC83]

If this stays tight, could this just start RI'ing?

[WmE]

:uarrow:

But for every Ivan there is an Irene, which didn't do anything. Still however I storms are mostly scary.

There was an Irene that flooded South Florida pretty badly.
I fear the "I"

My bad. I only thought of Irene 2005. Sorry.

[AussieMark]

The "I" storm is rarely a friendly one.

Ida, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore and Iris are a great example of that.

Ismael Iwa and Iniki in the Pacific also can be added to that list

[WmE]

The "I" storm is rarely a friendly one.

Ida, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore and Iris are a great example of that.

Ismael Iwa and Iniki in the Pacific also can be added to that list

Ioke was a beast too.

[x-y-no]

OK ... this thread is for discussion of TD9 - not past "I" storms.

[CrazyC83]

OK ... this thread is for discussion of TD9 - not past "I" storms.

I tried to bring up something but it got lost in the discussion.

I fear this will just go into rapid deepening and stay tight...knowing how fast it got going...

[chrisjslucia]

Ivan and Grenada in 2004 is a personal matter,so understand the concerns of "I" storms, but getting back to Gaston (to be) can anyone give me a heads up on the divergence of the models - BAMS is taking this directly through my front door and HWRF seems to be another southerly bet. I hate the model game this far out (not enough finger nails) but any explanation on the model variations would be a help.

[abajan]

By the looks of things, the stickied topic Reports frm Friends in the Islands affected by Earl & Fiona may need to be changed to: Reports frm Friends in the Islands affected by Earl, Fiona & Gaston.
This is becoming funny in a dark kinda way. Something like Desperate Housewives (classified as a dark comedy).

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[Canelaw99]

chris - this is from the NHC 11am TD 9 discussion:

"THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
DISTINGUISHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...AND THE GFDL AND
HWRF HURRICANE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM-MEDIUM MODEL. THE
12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER TRACK PREDICTION
SINCE THEY WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE DEPRESSION."

they're hoping the models do better a little later as well...

[chrisjslucia]

Ivan and Grenada in 2004 is a personal matter,so understand the concerns of "I" storms, but getting back to Gaston (to be) can anyone give me a heads up on the divergence of the models - BAMS is taking this directly through my front door and HWRF seems to be another southerly bet. I hate the model game this far out (not enough finger nails) but any explanation on the model variations would be a help.

Sorry, perhaps I should have posted this on the models discussion?