ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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izzman
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#3361 Postby izzman » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:01 am

What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.
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Re: Re:

#3362 Postby CJPILOT » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:01 am

CJPILOT wrote:
cwachal wrote:what is the chances of this thing having regained cat 4 status when recon gets in there???


Possible, but Earl has some cooler water ahead of him. He will likely hold this level or decrease slightly.


Well I stand corrected. Raw T values indicate Earl is back to CAT 4. Over the longer run there is cooler water ahead, but in the short-term Earl looks strong.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3363 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:02 am

FYI Latest track. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents for official information.

Image
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Re:

#3364 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:03 am

izzman wrote:What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.



Something must be wrong at the ISP level or your area's internet. I'm not having any trouble with DSL (ATT) in Florida.
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Re: Re:

#3365 Postby izzman » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:05 am

Recurve wrote:
izzman wrote:What is going on with NHC site. I can't get connected for the last hour. TWC's feeds fro NHC are also unavailable. I wonder if they are too bombarded which wouldn't be a good sing for any disasters. Note total newbie and novice to weather though I have adbvanced degrees in Math and Physics.
Gracias. This is the best site i have found so far.



Something must be wrong at the ISP level or your area's internet. I'm not having any trouble with DSL (ATT) in Florida.


Thanks. I think you're right. Appreciate the pastes from their sites though!
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#3366 Postby funster » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:05 am

Looks to be much closer to the coast at a couple points than it looked like it would be several days ago.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3367 Postby SkeetoBite » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:06 am

Image

Image
Last edited by SkeetoBite on Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3368 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:07 am

When that turn to NNE occurs will be absolutely critical.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3369 Postby anarchiver19 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:10 am

I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...
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#3370 Postby Gigsley » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:10 am

Not to happy about this new dog leg backwards around 8:00AM Sat. I have friends in Portland, ME. Is this due to a (change) weakining in the trough at that time? The path is starting to look like a snake.
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#3371 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:10 am

I would think a Hurricane Watch would be needed tonight for the New England coast?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3372 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:10 am

Here is the full track view from the Navy. Note the stepped-circular areas indicate radius of winds. Note this is from NHC advisory #28, not the 11 a.m. advisory, the Navy map hasn't updated yet.

Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3373 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:11 am

anarchiver19 wrote:I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...


Yes technically you are in the watch, just north of the warning. The watch is up to Cape Henlopen, Delaware right now. I would have also at least put up a Tropical Storm Watch for the lower Chesapeake.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3374 Postby cwachal » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:14 am

anarchiver19 wrote:I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...



Prepare for a Major Hurricane and then if all you get is a few showers then you will have been prepared.. if you do not prepare and then you get the whole thing you will be in major trouble
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3375 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:16 am

anarchiver19 wrote:I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...



In general it's a matter of both timing and probability, but read their definitions:

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.


So, in my guesstimate, you are farther away both in terms of time and distance from the track. But you need to prepare in the same way I would think. It's more certain that the warning area will see hurricane force winds in the timeframe. You are likely to have a tropical storm warning if it doesn't go to hurricane warning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3376 Postby ncweatherwizard » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:22 am

anarchiver19 wrote:I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...


In your location, you should always have your basic hurricane preparedness kit ready in case power goes out for an extended period. Keeps you from having to wait in line for supplies after a storm. I wouldn't go out and spend any more money than you would normally would on nonperishables. Are you in an area where coastal flooding is an issue? Chances are it won't be any worse than several of the storms that have brushed by over the years, but if it is, you'll be ready.
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#3377 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:22 am

Bill Read...NHC director on live on the weather channel right now for those interested.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3378 Postby anarchiver19 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:22 am

Recurve wrote:
anarchiver19 wrote:I have kind of a stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway...they've extended the hurricane warning up to the NC/VA border...I am on the coast about 25 miles north from the border so we are technically in the watch area...how artificial is that line between a warning and a watch? I also understand the NHC is saying that just a slight deviation westward will have huge implications for the coast...



In general it's a matter of both timing and probability, but read their definitions:

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.


So, in my guesstimate, you are farther away both in terms of time and distance from the track. But you need to prepare in the same way I would think. It's more certain that the warning area will see hurricane force winds in the timeframe. You are likely to have a tropical storm warning if it doesn't go to hurricane warning.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Thanks for the advice and info...all of this waiting is making me a little frazzled-especially since I have somehow become the hurricane information desk at work today :eek:
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Re:

#3379 Postby ncweatherwizard » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:25 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I would think a Hurricane Watch would be needed tonight for the New England coast?


Yes probably; certainly by tomorrow morning. The wind field will probably expand as Earl moves northeastward on Friday. Cape Cod is much more likely to experience hurricane force winds than some of the places for which NHC just posted a watch.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3380 Postby GoneBabyGone » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:27 am

Predictions for Boston/Cambridge?

Fascinating storm to watch.
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