ATL: GASTON - Models

[ColinDelia]

TCHP if does get in Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

lifting out of the Caribbean

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[StormClouds63]

Good news is that the GOM has been a graveyard for tropical systems in 2010 ... so far.

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]lifting out of the Caribbean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... 2.gifquote]

that is interesting to get pullled out like that....

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Ridge building back over as the shortwave passes by

[ROCK]

fixen to say if it missed that connection then the ridge would build...maybe FL straits or back over Cuba...

[StormClouds63]

Water temperatures are still quite warm in the Caribbean. However, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and GOM have been more than offset by hostile upper environmental conditions. Are these conditions still likely to persist if and when a system approaches?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a recurver

[KWT]

Sory to say but the 12z GFS looks like a good solution to me, into the E.Caribbean and getting a little further west then Earl and Fiona would be my call right now...

The models sure suggestive of a set-up that would take it into the Caribbean...though the ECM is pretty keen to dig down a upper trough down the west Atlantic again between 192-240hrs...though that may actually just lift this system up through the Caribbean Islands and into the E.coast...so we have to watch this one.

[SFLcane]

Looks like this might follow earl into the weakness.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[hurricaneCW]

That's interesting, it goes way south into the E Caribbean, slams Puerto Rico and than recurves. It's just the first run of the gfs so I expect to see major day to day shifts with this one.

[cycloneye]

Looks like this might follow earl into the weakness.

The weakness may close as Nine is very far.

[Scorpion]

Definitely not buying that kind of recurve right now.

[cycloneye]