ATL: GASTON - Models

[ROCK]

Sory to say but the 12z GFS looks like a good solution to me, into the E.Caribbean and getting a little further west then Earl and Fiona would be my call right now...

The models sure suggestive of a set-up that would take it into the Caribbean...though the ECM is pretty keen to dig down a upper trough down the west Atlantic again between 192-240hrs...though that may actually just lift this system up through the Caribbean Islands and into the E.coast...so we have to watch this one.

I think we pretty much know your position on every storm for this year.....

[Ivanhater]

When you have this system moving far south into the Caribbean, it's gonna take a deep and stronger trough than what we have seen so far to lift this all the way up. We are going to see many more model solutions from this one...imo

[Duke95]

Does that say 926 mb on 9/9?

[Wx_Warrior]

IDK....the way the season is going, it would not surprise me.

[ROCK]

I am not on the "recurve" bandwagon with this one....very far south and expected to head west across the pond. For a trof to scoop something out of the carib it has to be pretty strong....GFS does show a front making its way all the way down through Miami on this run though....Not sure I can swallow that right now...even at that, it misses it, the ridge should build back in nicely....progressive pattern or not....


anyway just my 2 cents on this run....it will flip I am sure of it...

[Ivanhater]

IDK....the way the season is going, it would not surprise me.

I'm surprised in this La Nina with all the troughs in the ATL...

[KWT]

Yeah the 12z GFS shows a solution that is like Hortense from 1996, which is all the NE Caribbean needs right now...

[Wx_Warrior]

Very true...guess Im just saying nothing will surprise me. I take GFS with a grain of salt. But like all, has had it's highs and lows.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I am not on the "recurve" bandwagon with this one....very far south and expected to head west across the pond. For a trof to scoop something out of the carib it has to be pretty strong....GFS does show a front making its way all the way down through Miami on this run though....Not sure I can swallow that right now...even at that, it misses it, the ridge should build back in nicely....progressive pattern or not....


anyway just my 2 cents on this run....it will flip I am sure of it...

Me either! This one will be farther west and South.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is NE Caribbean bound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[AtlanticWind]

Lets give the CMC some credit , it picked this system up early.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12z CMC, is Caribbean bound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Looks Reasonable!!

[shah8]

12z cmc sez Gaston will approach the island already affected by Earl and Fiona and not be so deep south. Wait, it looks like a ridge builds towards the end so Gaston is aiming at Guadeloupe.

[Plant grower]

Crazy GFS well I think this run should be thrown in the garbage this early in the game.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian builds in the ridge very strong at the end all across the ATL and East coast

[Dean4Storms]

One thing we've seen with the GFS so far this year is that it breaks down sub-tropical ridges too fast on early runs with these systems. It had Danielle headed northward from the get go and Danielle kept trending west, it did the same thing with Earl and now Earl is threatening the east coast. Remember it had Earl going east of Bermuda early in the storms formation.

I don't believe this sudden turn northward from the GFS right now.

[gatorcane]

Interesting. First BAM run isn't recurving. That's new!

Gator will have nothing to post about!! couldnt resist....

Thanks

There's not much argument for a recurve away from the islands or maybe Caribbean at this point. Looks like this could get farther west than the previous systems.

Let's see what the ECMWF shows.

[MWatkins]

I think looking past days 5/6 in any model is guesswork at best (look at the Euro with Fiona...SC, then FL, then Cuba, then 55W on successive runs).

I thikn GFS bashing has become cliche', like it always does. It's just not being lead by a paticular poster who isn't on the board any more. And please bewere of my favorite statement that is almost never backed up with any analysis:

"Looks like a "bad" run of the GFS"

The bad runs are the ones that didn't see an obviously developing cyclone. Now that it has it, the track is more reasonable...and the NHC will likely shift west and have a faster track at 5pm.

The due west solution into the Caribbean looks plausible for now, and I wouldn't expect a progressive trough to pluck it south of Puerto Rico on a due north course out to sea.

The run through 144 seems very reasonable and in line with the CMC. A west runner that is probably going to be a problem for the islands.

MW

[KWT]

CMC does look very reasonable, though you can see there is a weakness between the two high pressure cells that are over the C.Atlantic and the E.US at 144hrs...

On the 00z run it has a stronger weakness which recurves it at 60W...though it'd likely get further west on the 12z run, still think that weakness would lift it out to some degree...but not enough perhaps.

[Ivanhater]

CMC does look very reasonable, though you can see there is a weakness between the two high pressure cells that are over the C.Atlantic and the E.US right now...

That is not a weakness KWT...take a look at the loop, it is in the middle of bridging 2 strengthening high pressures across the ATL and the East coast...Ridge is only getting stronger on this run of the Canadian, not the other way around

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation