ATL: EARL - Models

[hurricaneCW]

I'd be pretty nervous if I lived on eastern LI, southeastern MA and especially Cape Cod/Nantucket. I don't think a lot of people realize what could happen if Earl makes landfall there. It would probably be a Cat 2 which is more than powerful enough to cause major damage. Hopefully the tracks shift east again, if they shift any more west, it would be a disaster.

[ronjon]

Looks as if the western eyewall moves over Cape Cod/Nantucket and SE Maine on the 12z GFS run. Based on this run, I'd expect Hurricane Watches for New Jersey, Long Island, Conn, RI, Mass, coastal NH, and Maine soon.

[brunota2003]

Okay...for the Crystal Coast/Morehead City area...what are the new model runs showing for them? And what is the timeframe roughly? Things go downhill tomorrow afternoon/evening, or?

[artist]

from ronjon's pic above-

[emeraldislencguy]

great question
waiting for the answer

[hurricaneCW]

If the other models show a west shift including the Euro, than I could at least see TS watches from Delaware to Cape Cod, maybe even a hurricane watch for southeastern MA or at least Cape Cod.

[ronjon]

I think what's happening on the track is that Earl is pumping up the ridging over the eastern US which is causing that trough to slow down ever so slowly - which results in a closer coastward movement of the storm.

[shah8]

12z cmc keeps Earl offshore, curve is slightly less pronounced, which is probably the important aspect.

[ronjon]

I think the latest 12Z GFS run is pretty close to the earlier NOGAPS and UKMET runs. Interesting....

[capepoint]

Okay...for the Crystal Coast/Morehead City area...what are the new model runs showing for them? And what is the timeframe roughly? Things go downhill tomorrow afternoon/evening, or?

latest tv12 in-house models show it getting sloppy around 6pm thurs and clearing fri afternoon. right now the ts/hurr winds line comes ashore at atlantic beach and works thru downeast carteret, ocracoke, hatteras, and exits around kitty hawk, remaining within about 10-15 miles of the coast. areas inland from there to new bern/washington area should see a period of TS winds with some higher gusts.

NWS not even attempting a guess. I don't blame them. I think we are at the point in time now, and the all or nothing line is so close, that the slightest wobble or jog can bust a forcast.
Guess they will be sure enough about it to tell us on saturday. thats what I would do if I were in their shoes anyhow. lol.
This is truely one thats too close to call.

[terrapintransit]

Is there a trend starting here with the NGFDL model??

[shah8]

What I find really interesting is how much dynamicals are east of the globals.

[seussianagenda]

Hey guys, great discussion and I mean that honestly. These latest runs REALLY scare me here in Norfolk VA. The models runs early in the day were starting to trend slightly east and I was hoping the break had finally occured. However, I should have relied on the adium of " The trend are your friend". The storm is STILL tracking NW and just not hitting forcast points. If this storm goes even 50 nm west of it's current track, the SEVA metropolis will be devastated. Nothing here is ready for 70-80 mile an hour winds. As much as I love storms and such and would love to have a boss hurricane party, that will not be happening if I don't see a NNW/N jog by the time I go to bed tonight. SEVA window here is really closing quick.

[HurrMark]

What I find really interesting is how much dynamicals are east of the globals.

At higher latitudes, tropical dynamical models are really not that useful...you tend to stick to the globals at that point.

[shah8]

NOGAPS still wants to do worst case at 12z.

[capepoint]

NOGAPS still wants to do worst case at 12z.

NOGAPS is a navy model. Maybe it's angry at its bosses and wants to smoke Norfolk, so it's showing its wishcast...lol

[edgeblade]

Hey guys, great discussion and I mean that honestly. These latest runs REALLY scare me here in Norfolk VA. The models runs early in the day were starting to trend slightly east and I was hoping the break had finally occured. However, I should have relied on the adium of " The trend are your friend". The storm is STILL tracking NW and just not hitting forcast points. If this storm goes even 50 nm west of it's current track, the SEVA metropolis will be devastated. Nothing here is ready for 70-80 mile an hour winds. As much as I love storms and such and would love to have a boss hurricane party, that will not be happening if I don't see a NNW/N jog by the time I go to bed tonight. SEVA window here is really closing quick.

Agreed, Isabel did a number here in 2003, can't imagine what a storm potentially twice, if not 3 times as powerful could do here.

[plasticup]

I haven't seen anyone else posting this, so I might as well.

The NHC's SLOSH model is not active, which gives the probability of various storm surge events based on the storm's characteristics and the local topography. Play with it! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml?gm

[KWT]

Models now in very tight agreement that this one stays just offshore, but to be honest at this stage it doesn't make an awful amount of difference what the models show, its getting close to that wobble time again...

[CrazyC83]

NOGAPS has been the least reliable model all season...