ATL: EARL - Recon Discussion

[brunota2003]

I caught that...grr probably prep for descent though

[brunota2003]

Should start descent in a bit...what do you think they'll find? I think the pressure will of dropped some (935ish) and flight level winds will be in the mid to upper 120s still.

[brunota2003]

116 kt flight level wind is pretty high, and they still are not to the eye yet! (Pressure was only 972 at the end, and I expect it will be in the 940s or 930s)...the Smurf winds are not that impressive, though...only 84 knots so far. I expect the next set of obs will have upper 90s in it, though. Looks like it is still at least a 100 knot hurricane.

[JtSmarts]

I noticed a 138 KT wind was found on the last obs, does anyone know what conversion were using in today's flight.

[HURAKAN]

I noticed a 138 KT wind was found on the last obs, does anyone know what conversion were using in today's flight.

When they found 128 knots days ago, the NHC said it was 115 knots at the surface 115/128 = .90

so, 138 * .90 = 125 knots or 145 mph

[SunnyThoughts]

Think they will upgrade to a cat 4 ...or wait for another pass or two?

[JtSmarts]

Thanks Hurakan, I guess there is a decent chance he could be back at a 4 at the 5 P.M. advisory.

[HURAKAN]

likely at 2 pm advisory

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 011729
XXAA 51177 99259 70724 08052 99953 25807 08099 00924 ///// /////
92266 24005 10137 85006 20803 12632 70674 126// 14130 88999 77999
31313 09608 81713

NE eyewall. 99kt at surface from 130kt at FL. Suggests the winds aren't making it down to the surface as well.

MBL wind is 132kt. Using the .8 conversion gets you 105kts.

[SunnyThoughts]

wow mission over already, hope the plane isn't experiencing problems. Next mission late tonight, man thats a long time to wait

[CrazyC83]

That dropsonde may make me rethink. That would indeed support keeping it Cat 3. MAYBE 115 kt, but not 120 kt as I first suggested.

[CrazyC83]

wow mission over already, hope the plane isn't experiencing problems. Next mission late tonight, man thats a long time to wait

Yeah probably some electronics issue with the plane or maybe it hit turbulence. Is there a NOAA plane expected to go into there?

[SunnyThoughts]

not sure about the NOAA flights crazy, hopefully they have one headed that way soon...I know I read fixes every 6 hours... 10:30 pm Eastern which apparently the next AF flight is certainly a long time away when we have an apprently strengthening cat 3 hurricane headed towards the east coast.

[RL3AO]

The fact that its almost 12 hours until the next plane gets out there, I'm thinking that this plane was supposed to be out there longer and did have some problem.

[Brent]

Major hurricane bearing down on the east coast and no flight for 12 hours... brilliant.

[SunnyThoughts]

Perhaps if the plane investigating Fiona could swing up there and give a couple passes of earl? Not sure if they can do that or not, or if its even possible...not sure how long they have been out there at this point.

[plasticup]

Major hurricane bearing down on the east coast and no flight for 12 hours... brilliant.

Surely they'll schedule another one... No?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

A NOAA P3 research mission recon just reached the outer bands of Earl. It may get to the center by the 8PM EDT intermediate advisory.

[SunnyThoughts]

Great Chris!!!!! cannot WAIT to see what they find.

[artist]

A NOAA P3 research mission recon just reached the outer bands of Earl. It may get to the center by the 8PM EDT intermediate advisory.

so is that this one I show right now?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .kwbc..txt