ATL: GASTON - Models

[gatorcane]

I expect the GFS run may get even further west on subsequent runs. I think it loses resolution out beyond 180 hours and unnecessarily shoots it up into a giant weakness off the Eastern Seaboard that I think is not going to be that large.

[KWT]

That is not a weakness KWT...take a look at the loop, it is in the middle of bridging 2 strengthening high pressures across the ATL and the East coast...Ridge is only getting stronger on this run of the Canadian, not the other way around

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It is a weakness, just not a very strong one, ANY gap between two high pressure cells is techincally a weakness...its all relative remember.

However that being said I do think this one needs to be watched closely, I think the GFS/CMC is very good out to 144hrs at least and there is IMO an obvious risk to the Caribbean down the line...

I also expect more westward adjustments though given the constant weaknesses down the E.coast I'd expect it to lift out at some point but that may just put the SE US at high risk...

[Ivanhater]

My point was you seemed to imply that the "weakness" would have an influence on the system this run.

By 144 hours, there is nothing to bring this up. The high is strengthening even more

[ROCK]

EURO out soon....Ivan your in charge!!

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 120 hours

[Ivanhater]

144 hours

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Both have a strong ridge.

[Vortex]

12Z euro seems as though it may turn this early...Moves NW from H+120 to H+144....

[Ivanhater]

168 hours

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 35.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2010 11.6N 35.1W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2010 12.0N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2010 12.7N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2010 13.0N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2010 13.1N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2010 13.7N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2010 14.0N 44.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2010 14.4N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2010 15.4N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2010 15.7N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2010 16.0N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2010 16.9N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2010 17.9N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[HURAKAN]

Future Gaston seems like it has no hurry to travel across the Atlantic

[Ivanhater]

Euro sends this fishing waaay out in the ATL

[Ivanhater]

192 HOURS

[cycloneye]

That means EURO is an outlier?

[Ivanhater]

216 hours

[ROCK]

Hmmm...the ECM is the right outlier. Dont see that very often.....

[Ivanhater]

240 hours

[Gustywind]

12z cmc sez Gaston will approach the island already affected by Earl and Fiona and not be so deep south. Wait, it looks like a ridge builds towards the end so Gaston is aiming at Guadeloupe.

[Nimbus]

I don't like the looks of that east coast ridge setup. If Gaston spins up late west of 50W like the preceding storms than he would miss a mid atlantic weakness. Might pull him north of the islands, but these early model runs are bowling for Florida.

[Vortex]

Here’s the problem I have with the Euro…I find it HIGHLY unlikely that Gaston is only around 50-52W in 6-7 days given its current position and movement. It’s not going to happen given its current speed and well established subtropical ridge to the north. I don’t discount the fact there could be a weakness developing north of 50W but by then Gaston would likely be entering the carribean.