ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[UpTheCreek]

Cantore as hurricane deflection device isn't so much of a sure thing as it was a couple years back.

However, if Geraldo Rivera shows up, that's a clear sign to get out of Dodge.

Yeah, maybe Jimmy Hoffa will wash up somewhere?

[CrazyC83]

Based on Recon (leaving due to trouble?), I would bump it to 120 kt.

[yzerfan]

Cantore as hurricane deflection device isn't so much of a sure thing as it was a couple years back.

However, if Geraldo Rivera shows up, that's a clear sign to get out of Dodge.

Yeah, maybe Jimmy Hoffa will wash up somewhere?

If Earl goes far west of the current consensus track and floods out enough Meadowlands parking lots, well, you never really know.

[hurricaneCW]

This storm is going to be painfully close. Right now it's still charging to the NW at a brisk speed. As far as the whole crossing 75W before 30N goes. Unless there is a sudden NNW/N movement, I'd say an 80% chance of it being south of 30N as it crosses 75W. Right now it's at 25.7/72.7. Again the storm is moving a few hours faster than the NHC track indicated. The 12 hr position from 5AM this morning said 25.8/72.9 which should have been reached today at 5PM. Well it's only 2PM and we are pretty much dead on with that position.

[HurrMark]

This storm is going to be painfully close. Right now it's still charging to the NW at a brisk speed. As far as the whole crossing 75W before 30N goes. Unless there is a sudden NNW/N movement, I'd say an 80% chance of it being south of 30N as it crosses 75W. Right now it's at 25.7/72.7. Again the storm is moving a few hours faster than the NHC track indicated. The 12 hr position from 5AM this morning said 25.8/72.9 which should have been reached today at 5PM. Well it's only 2PM and we are pretty much dead on with that position.

Actually, it forecasted that for 18Z, which was the 2 PM advisory. So it is actually moving slightly slower than forecasted.

[hurricaneCW]

This storm is going to be painfully close. Right now it's still charging to the NW at a brisk speed. As far as the whole crossing 75W before 30N goes. Unless there is a sudden NNW/N movement, I'd say an 80% chance of it being south of 30N as it crosses 75W. Right now it's at 25.7/72.7. Again the storm is moving a few hours faster than the NHC track indicated. The 12 hr position from 5AM this morning said 25.8/72.9 which should have been reached today at 5PM. Well it's only 2PM and we are pretty much dead on with that position.

Actually, it forecasted that for 18Z, which was the 2 PM advisory. So it is actually moving slightly slower than forecasted.

Oh okay. I assumed that 12 hrs from when the advisory was issued meant around 5PM since it was issued at 5AM.

[RL3AO]

This storm is going to be painfully close. Right now it's still charging to the NW at a brisk speed. As far as the whole crossing 75W before 30N goes. Unless there is a sudden NNW/N movement, I'd say an 80% chance of it being south of 30N as it crosses 75W. Right now it's at 25.7/72.7. Again the storm is moving a few hours faster than the NHC track indicated. The 12 hr position from 5AM this morning said 25.8/72.9 which should have been reached today at 5PM. Well it's only 2PM and we are pretty much dead on with that position.

Actually, it forecasted that for 18Z, which was the 2 PM advisory. So it is actually moving slightly slower than forecasted.

Oh okay. I assumed that 12 hrs from when the advisory was issued meant around 5PM since it was issued at 5AM.

They fix the forecast at 6z,12z,18z, and 0z. So the 5am forecast 12hrs is at 18z (2pm).

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 07, 2010090118, , BEST, 0, 257N, 727W, 110, 941, HU

125 mph

[apocalypt-flyer]

If I were nearby coastal NC, I'd start tiptoe-ing around a little. This is by no means a forecast but it'll be awfully close and it only takes a small deviation depending on the timing between front and Earl.

That said, best of luck to everyone on the EC in the USA and Canada.

[cpdaman]

last pic shows a jog north from 1745 to 1815

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest

[Just Joshing You]

I read very little mention about Nova Scotia in all of this, probably because it's canada and people think it's sparsely populated.

By the looks of it, NS will take the brunt of the storm, no west side shenanigans or anything. /brood

[wx247]

Trough still appears to be aligned more SSW to NNE... notice how that parallels the East Coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fox]

I read very little mention about Nova Scotia in all of this, probably because it's canada and people think it's sparsely populated.

By the looks of it, NS will take the brunt of the storm, no west side shenanigans or anything. /brood

That's what I'm saying. Hoping it will die out by then, but if it's a Cat 2 it will be terrible.

[Time_Zone]

I read very little mention about Nova Scotia in all of this, probably because it's canada and people think it's sparsely populated.

By the looks of it, NS will take the brunt of the storm, no west side shenanigans or anything. /brood

That's what I'm saying. Hoping it will die out by then, but if it's a Cat 2 it will be terrible.

Nah...no way it'll still be a 2 by time it gets here....im thinking low end 1

[SunnyThoughts]

For the wobble watchers


http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8661/earl4.gif

[artist]

I read very little mention about Nova Scotia in all of this, probably because it's canada and people think it's sparsely populated.

By the looks of it, NS will take the brunt of the storm, no west side shenanigans or anything. /brood

I promise, I think most of us think about everyone where this will hit. And most mention the east coast, and most mentions otherwise at this point, from what I am reading, seem to be dealing with where Earl will hit the east coast first. As Earl gets closer to Canada/Nova Scotia, et al, I feel sure the conversation will be talking of that.
Good luck to all that will be affected by Earl. Stay safe and be prepared.

[HurrMark]

last pic shows a jog north from 1745 to 1815

Mmm...I don't see the jog...might just be an illusion from the eyewall.

[funster]

Looks like Earl is already to about 73 west. If it gets past 75 west it is going to have to really curve to avoid the us coast.

[CrazyC83]

I read very little mention about Nova Scotia in all of this, probably because it's canada and people think it's sparsely populated.

By the looks of it, NS will take the brunt of the storm, no west side shenanigans or anything. /brood

That's what I'm saying. Hoping it will die out by then, but if it's a Cat 2 it will be terrible.

Nah...no way it'll still be a 2 by time it gets here....im thinking low end 1

Juan was a Cat 2 when it hit Halifax, but this will be in cooler waters longer.