ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

last pic shows a jog north from 1745 to 1815

Mmm...I don't see the jog...might just be an illusion from the eyewall.

Either an illusion from an obscure eyewall or a wobble. We should see more northerly wobbles. It doesn't have that much more west to go before it reaches the farthest extent westward of the NHC track. Near 73W now.

[HurrMark]

By the way, in case you were wondering, the NHC forecast has basically been spot on in terms of track over the last 24 hours:

5 PM 8/31 forecast @ 2 PM 9/1: 25.6N 72.8W
5 AM 9/1 forecast @ 2 PM 9/1: 25.8N 72.9W
Actual @ 2 PM: 25.7N 72.7W

[dixiebreeze]

Earl starting to show up on the GOM Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[rosethornil]

Y'all are a smart bunch (and a polite bunch*) and it is utterly fascinating for a flatlander know-nothing such as myself to read your comments and look at the pretty pictures. I understand that the comments here are "Not an official forecast and should not be used as such..." however,

Throw me a bone here. Go out on a limb and give me your best educated guess as to YOUR personal opinion of where this puppy will make landfall? And when?

Rose in Norfolk (who is glad she bought her provisions yesterday morning)

* The good behavior on this board is refreshing, btw. And on a side note, can I mention that the posters here spell better than 99% of the boards I've seen online?

[Javlin]

last pic shows a jog north from 1745 to 1815

Mmm...I don't see the jog...might just be an illusion from the eyewall.

Last frame looked maybe a wobble W but it could be an illusion.

[hurricaneCW]

Earl reminds me of Floyd in some ways but further to the east and obviously a weaker/smaller system than Floyd. The whole turn scenario, when will it turn to the N/NNE, the super close calls. Hopefully it stays east of the track but the models show more danger to New England/Cape Cod.

[RL3AO]

* The good behavior on this board is refreshing, btw. And on a side note, can I mention that the posters here spell better than 99% of the boards I've seen online?

thankz. i takes gr8 prdie in propper grhamer and speling. LOLZ.

[CronkPSU]

Y'all are a smart bunch (and a polite bunch*) and it is utterly fascinating for a flatlander know-nothing such as myself to read your comments and look at the pretty pictures. I understand that the comments here are "Not an official forecast and should not be used as such..." however,

Throw me a bone here. Go out on a limb and give me your best educated guess as to YOUR personal opinion of where this puppy will make landfall? And when?

Rose in Norfolk (who is glad she bought her provisions yesterday morning)

* The good behavior on this board is refreshing, btw. And on a side note, can I mention that the posters here spell better than 99% of the boards I've seen online?

if my life was on the line...
30 miles off the Outer banks is as close as the eye gets, will come within 75 miles of Cape cod and sorry Canadians, you take a cat one storm

[plasticup]

Word is out that NC has a hurricane warning, so folks here in Charlotte are stocking up on food, batteries, etc. The forecast this far inland? Sunny today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday... You get the picture.

Amusing, though. I would be surprised if people in the mountains were stocking up too!

[RL3AO]

Just to point out. NHC forecast shows Earl getting to 75.2W. Outer Banks around 76W. Currently near 72.8.

[cpdaman]

actually i shouldn't have posted that.....it was tuff to see a wobble from a 30 min......1745 to 1815.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8661/earl4.gif

but this shows it's def not turnin NNW now

[plasticup]

Just to point out. NHC forecast shows Earl getting to 75.2W. Outer Banks around 76W. Currently near 72.8.

Yep, right where he is supposed to be. So far the models have nailed it.

[plasticup]

actually i shouldn't have posted that.....it was tuff to see a wobble from a 30 min......1745 to 1815.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8661/earl4.gif

but this shows it's def not turnin NNW now

In the northwest corner of that image you can see the trough moving in to grab Earl before he reaches the coast. The race is on!

[novascotiadude]

Hoping landfall in Nova Scotia is late Saturday morning/early afternoon so I don't miss too much work.

[plasticup]

Hoping landfall in Nova Scotia is late Saturday morning/early afternoon so I don't miss too much work.

It's pretty certain that Earl will be up there around mid-day Saturday at the latest. His short-term longitude is a matter of debate, but his pace is more or less set.

[Raebie]

Word is out that NC has a hurricane warning, so folks here in Charlotte are stocking up on food, batteries, etc. The forecast this far inland? Sunny today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday... You get the picture.

Amusing, though. I would be surprised if people in the mountains were stocking up too!

I haven't seen anything out of the ordinary in my neck of the woods. Most of the folks I've talked to know it's a coastal event. Although we didn't think we'd get hit by Hugo either...

[ncweatherwizard]

Trough still appears to be aligned more SSW to NNE... notice how that parallels the East Coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's just the leading edge of a frontal boundary where you see the cloudiness. The mid/upper level trough is farther behind.

[MGC]

Earl is still moving NW...and how far west he gets is the million dollar question.....should be upgraded to Cat-4 in the next advisory....MGC

[UpTheCreek]

Word is out that NC has a hurricane warning, so folks here in Charlotte are stocking up on food, batteries, etc. The forecast this far inland? Sunny today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday... You get the picture.

Amusing, though. I would be surprised if people in the mountains were stocking up too!

No, the hurricane warning is coastal areas to about 25 or 30 miles or so inland. Charlotte is not under a hurricane warning.

[hurricaneCW]

I would think that he make have wobbled to the NNW recently but I wish I had recon to see what was going on. It's hard to tell if it's an illusion, if the eye wall is obscuring the actual center making it look more north or something else.