ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[thetruesms]

No, the hurricane warning is coastal areas to about 25 or 30 miles or so inland. Charlotte is not under a hurricane warning.

I think that is the source of plasticup's amusement

[artist]

That's just the leading edge of a frontal boundary where you see the cloudiness. The mid/upper level trough is farther behind.

so is the trough the lower long line that is sort of parallel across the middle of the US then in your picture?

[UpTheCreek]

No, the hurricane warning is coastal areas to about 25 or 30 miles or so inland. Charlotte is not under a hurricane warning.

I think that is the source of plasticup's amusement

I should've known plasticup knew that Charlotte wasn't under a hurricane warning! Guess I'm focusing too hard to pick up sarcasm at the moment!

[Maritimer71]

Right now, I have resigned to the fact that we in Nova Scotia will be hit... now its just the question of how hard...

Here today we have a Humidex of 107 F... That's just not normal weather for Nova Scotia ever, let alone in September... And our sea temps are 2-4 degrees Celcius above normal...

I certainly hope the water is cool enough to slow this storm down and/or weaken it some before it makes landfall... There are parts of this Province that haven't fully recovered from the Juan hit back in 2003...

We are prepared as much as we can be... so now we just wait, watch and pray.

[vbhoutex]

actually i shouldn't have posted that.....it was tuff to see a wobble from a 30 min......1745 to 1815.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/8661/earl4.gif

but this shows it's def not turnin NNW now

In the northwest corner of that image you can see the trough moving in to grab Earl before he reaches the coast. The race is on!

I have been wrong more than once in my life, but after looking at the visible very carefully I see two things. Earl is still moving NW and not NNW, except for maybe an occasional normal wobble that strong hurricanes do. Secondly, and this is my opinion only based on what I have seen, the trough needs to speed up if it is going to get to Earl before Earl gets too close to the coast. IOW, it is going to be a VERY CLOSE RACE. I do hope Earl stays offshore, but do think that even if he does it won't be by too much which will bring some very rough conditions to much of the coast. I hope I am wrong.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[MGC]

Yea, this will be like splitting hairs.....trough a little too slow, landfall....Earl speeds up, landfall....SST are warm all the way up to NC so I see no reason for Earl to loose much intensity till the hurricane passes 35 degrees north....Just talked with my oldest son in Chesapeake Va and told him to prepare for strong TS conditions and perhaps more. He was down here after Katrina and is well aware of what a large major hurricane can do....MGC

[mf_dolphin]

Watch the race here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Trishasmom]

No, the hurricane warning is coastal areas to about 25 or 30 miles or so inland. Charlotte is not under a hurricane warning.

I think that is the source of plasticup's amusement

I understand that the coast would be under a watch. My question is how far inland might the winds and rains reach? Some areas are prone to flooding in a bad thunderstorm and power outages even inland. So maybe that is why people are wondering what the effects of Earl will be. So if Earl 50-100 miles from the shore but the winds are extended over a 200 mile area wouldn't that mean even inland could have some issues? (of course not like the coast for sure)

Sorry if this is a silly question. I'm a good 60-80 miles from the coast so no worries here but still am curious. It's good to be curious it shows my mind is still active. lol

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, if you live along the coast within 30 miles and are under a Hurricane Warning you best prepare for hurricane winds and hope for the best.

[mf_dolphin]

No, the hurricane warning is coastal areas to about 25 or 30 miles or so inland. Charlotte is not under a hurricane warning.

I think that is the source of plasticup's amusement

I understand that the coast would be under a watch. My question is how far inland might the winds and rains reach? Some areas are prone to flooding in a bad thunderstorm and power outages even inland. So maybe that is why people are wondering what the effects of Earl will be. So if Earl 50-100 miles from the shore but the winds are extended over a 200 mile area wouldn't that mean even inland could have some issues? (of course not like the coast for sure)

Sorry if this is a silly question. I'm a good 60-80 miles from the coast so no worries here but still am curious. It's good to be curious it shows my mind is still active. lol

Tropical storm winds are out around 150 miles on the west (land) side of the storm so you might get those based on the actual track.

[fci]

Word is out that NC has a hurricane warning, so folks here in Charlotte are stocking up on food, batteries, etc. The forecast this far inland? Sunny today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday... You get the picture.

Amusing, though. I would be surprised if people in the mountains were stocking up too!

I used to live up there and ever since Hugo, Charlotte takes each storm as if it will repeat that amazing night.
I suspect that bread and milk will be the first things gone from the shelves.

[MGC]

150 miles on the west side for TS force winds....how far for Hurricane strength on the west side?????....MGC

[CrazyC83]

150 miles on the west side for TS force winds....how far for Hurricane strength on the west side?????....MGC

About 70 miles. Those are only over water, but expect hurricane gusts at least that far west. The difference should increase once it moves north.

[lovestorms84]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


It looks to me that everything is on track (from what NHC) is saying...correct me if im wrong please(I am no prof) but it looks like the front is moving to the East just in time to push Earl out.

[vbhoutex]

Yep, if you live along the coast within 30 miles and are under a Hurricane Warning you best prepare for hurricane winds and hope for the best.

Good advice.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The longer that Earl stays on this definite NW track at the speed he has continued at, the more likely a direct hit, at least on the OBX, becomes. With waters as warm as they are still that far North and with the Gulf Stream to play with I don't expect Earl to lose very much strength by the time he is in that area. IF he does make a direct hit on NC then the whole E Coast is in for one heck of a ride IMO. If I lived on or near the East coast I would be preparing for at lest TS strength winds at this point. Always better safe than sorry.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
If I wrote the warnings, given the track, here are changes I would make for 5 pm:

Tropical Storm Warning - Introduce from the NC/VA border to Chincoteague. Maintain the Hurricane Watch as well. Not enough confidence the Hampton Roads area will see hurricane conditions at this moment but it may need to be upgraded later.

Tropical Storm Watch - Introduce for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Tropical Storm Watch - Introduce for Delaware Bay and from Cape Henlopen north to Manasquan Inlet.

At 11 pm it would be time for Hurricane Watches in southern New England I would think.

[Zarniwoop]

I too am curious about this.

I'm probably wrong, but I think I read (here or elsewhere) that the actual high front trails the leading clouds by 100-200 miles. Correct experts?

If that's the case, my completely ignorant, unqualified opinion is that earl wins that race. However, I believe that its not that simple and that there are other factors that will start steering him north, so I'll leave it to an expert to explain, but I'm still fascinated by it.

[Trishasmom]

[quoteTropical storm winds are out around 150 miles on the west (land) side of the storm so you might get those based on the actual track.[/quote]


Thanks!

[CronkPSU]

I too am curious about this.

I'm probably wrong, but I think I read (here or elsewhere) that the actual high front trails the leading clouds by 100-200 miles. Correct experts?

If that's the case, my completely ignorant, unqualified opinion is that earl wins that race. However, I believe that its not that simple and that there are other factors that will start steering him north, so I'll leave it to an expert to explain, but I'm still fascinated by it.

a pro met earlier had a map that confirms your post about it trailing the clouds...don't know what that means in this case but it does make the timing worse for NC residents