ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Looks like the forecast track might be a tad closer to the Cape...although I think it is still offshore...it will be zooming on by, so that could make a big difference in terms of winds.

[shah8]

I see that the maps concedes south of 30L at 75W, but sez almost due north instead of NNW.

/me shrugs. Probably's true, after all, they know what they are doing and busting this forcast would seem hard.

[capepoint]

THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

Sound familiar to anyone else?

How many western edges does a subtropical ridge have? This one makes at least a dozen that Earl has neared......lol

[edgeblade]

...but this last run has it off the beach at Newport News/Norfolk and driving a heck of a wind up the Chesapeake probably creating a surge.

Hope that doesn't happen, I'm in NN, not on the bay side, but still...

[funster]

THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

Sound familiar to anyone else?

How many western edges does a subtropical ridge have? This one makes at least a dozen that Earl has neared......lol

LOL.

[cycloneye]

[pimentel2]

Alright, we've made the decision to put things inside the house tomorrow and get some flashlights....hopefully this won't be a hurricane watch tomorrow xD

[TropicalWXMA]

Hype has begun in SE New England. Spreading like wildfire!

[ncweatherwizard]

That's just the leading edge of a frontal boundary where you see the cloudiness. The mid/upper level trough is farther behind.

so is the trough the lower long line that is sort of parallel across the middle of the US then in your picture?

The trough axis follows a roughly north-south imaginary line where the lines dip southward (in the area where you see the yellows/oranges which represent the upper level wind magnitude). So in the area of western Montana and western Wyoming in that picture is where GFS initialized the trough. You can see a hint of the disturbance in water vapor imagery.

[SouthernBreeze]

"THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE"

Wouldn't it reach the EASTern edge first?

[hiflyer]

lessee a bridge in brooklyn....land in a swamp...and the western edge of the subtropical ridge....hmmmmm

NHC didn't state it but obviously they moved the track west a tad.....

Someone mentioned the bridge across the mouth of the bay...I am afraid we are gonna see a lot of water move under it if it stays close...water heights could get high as the bay traps the surge.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html


It looks to me that everything is on track (from what NHC) is saying...correct me if im wrong please(I am no prof) but it looks like the front is moving to the East just in time to push Earl out.

Well as a soon to be MET point of view, the trough that is coming east to push it away is really slow and continues to be alot slower than forecasted. This could allow Earl to continue NW and NNW until it reaches the coast. The problem is that the trough is not as deep and is not moving all that fast. I'm here in OK and its gonna take the front 24 hrs to move 200miles. This can be problematic for forecasting earl.

Don't forget the energy associated with a trough moves a little faster than the trough axis itself. Not sure how important that is though since we're talking about making a difference of only maybe 75nm for a cyclone currently far from the trough. It looks like that the 12Z GFS forecast (valid 18Z) of the trough verified though, meaning little change in the 18Z track forecast for Earl.

[SENClander]

I don't post much but ever since someone listed this site I have been comparing the track to my location and the center of the Earl's projected track has moved west from 220 miles to 160 miles from my location as of the 5 pm advisory. Interesting.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

[Malcome]

I have a question. The news, NHC, etc are saying that the Hurricane should hit Nova Scotia some time early Sat morning, around 8am. When they give a time frame, is that when the wind and rain should start, or is that when the center of the storm will make land fall?

[deltadog03]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ncweatherwizard]

I don't post much but ever since someone listed this site I have been comparing the track to my location and the center of the Earl's projected track has moved west from 220 miles to 160 miles from my location as of the 5 pm advisory. Interesting.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

It's just the 36 hour forecast point that is closer. Last forecast you were between the 36 and 48 hour points, and it got closer somewhere in between. The uncertainty cone didn't change much.

[Evil Jeremy]

"THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE"

Wouldn't it reach the EASTern edge first?

No, the eastern edge is on the other side of the Atlantic.

I have a question. The news, NHC, etc are saying that the Hurricane should hit Nova Scotia some time early Sat morning, around 8am. When they give a time frame, is that when the wind and rain should start, or is that when the center of the storm will make land fall?

Center of the storm

[SunnyThoughts]

Take care everyone along the east coast... He's beautiful, but a Beast, with a capital B

[ncweatherwizard]

deltadog, is that an 18Z analysis?

[SENClander]

I don't post much but ever since someone listed this site I have been comparing the track to my location and the center of the Earl's projected track has moved west from 220 miles to 160 miles from my location as of the 5 pm advisory. Interesting.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

It's just the 36 hour forecast point that is closer. Last forecast you were between the 36 and 48 hour points, and it got closer somewhere in between. The uncertainty cone didn't change much.

Thanks. I recognized that but it is interesting that each updated forcast track it has calculated it closer.