ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[plasticup]

The SLOSH model shows only a small chance (less than 10%) of any given area receiving more than a 5 foot surge. So that's good. But obviously another westward tick wouldn't help.

[artist]

...but this last run has it off the beach at Newport News/Norfolk and driving a heck of a wind up the Chesapeake probably creating a surge.

Hope that doesn't happen, I'm in NN, not on the bay side, but still...

a met told me earlier that there should not be a surge as such but tides should be running higher than normal. According the flood watch, they are saying from 1-3 ft higher than normal.

2 products issued by NWS for: Mount Rainier MD
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Coastal Flood Watch
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>055-057-020330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.A.0002.100902T1000Z-100903T1000Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
328 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SOME
INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE EARL IS TO THE REGION AND HOW FAST THE STORM IS MOVING WILL
DETERMINE TIDAL ANOMALIES. AT THIS POINT...WATER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... lood+Watch

[Macrocane]

From Jeff Masters:

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.

[deltadog03]

deltadog, is that an 18Z analysis?

No, 20z RUC

[Malcome]

I am actually being told that even us here in Nova Scotia will start to feel the outer rim of this thing as early as tomorrow. The breeze will start to be a constant breeze, and will just get worse as the days go bye. Do you guys agree that even with how far south it is, that we will start to feel it tomorrow?

[Hurritrax]

Just watched the Weather Channel and Cantore basically said they ought to evacuate Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk, Duck, Corolla, and Carova.....since they can't nail down whether the center will pass over the Outer Banks or stay off shore. From what I've heard, not much storm prep happening there thinking Earl is going to stay to the east.....let's hope for the best.

[TheBurn]

May be a fight to the finish...
-

[ncweatherwizard]

deltadog, is that an 18Z analysis?

No, 20z RUC

Oh ok I see the time now. So the trough is about where it's supposed to be.

[SunnyThoughts]

man oh man

[CrazyC83]

If that RFQ hits anywhere, it will surely be devastating...that is higher than Katrina was!!!

[xironman]

Just watched the Weather Channel and Cantore basically said they ought to evacuate Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk, Duck, Corolla, and Carova.

Carova is tough, the only way in and out of that place is to drive on the beach for 5 miles. If you are going to get out then you need to do it before the tides are too high.

[deltadog03]

deltadog, is that an 18Z analysis?

No, 20z RUC

Oh ok I see the time now. So the trough is about where it's supposed to be.

Ya, it appears that way...But, Earl is cooking towards the coast right now. Gonna be a close call for sure.

[latitude_20]

Geraldo dropping in via parachute in 5....4....3....2...

[KWT]

Theburn, that image sure does show how tight its going to be, no wonder the models are suggesting a real close call, honestly even a small wave/ripple in the front will probably mean the difference between a landfall and a safer close call...wouldn't like to say!

[brunota2003]

Have a friend of the family in the Morehead City area, will let everyone know what happens there...right now it is basically for sure he'll get TS force winds...maybe hurricane force winds depending on how close the brush is. If it wobbles west and makes landfall, it is possible he takes the near brunt of the Cat 4.

[plasticup]

Have a friend of the family in the Morehead City area, will let everyone know what happens there...right now it is basically for sure he'll get TS force winds...maybe hurricane force winds depending on how close the brush is. If it wobbles west and makes landfall, it is possible he takes the near brunt of the Cat 4.

It will take more than a "wobble" for Earl to make landfall in NC; it would take a pretty major deviation from his expected path. It's possible, but we aren't talking about those oh-so-loved eye wobbles.

[blazess556]

eye is really clearing out.

[seussianagenda]

I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. I'm in Norfolk and I really need to make the decision to evacuate by tonight. It keeps edging west and I live right next to the elizabeth river. only 30 or 40 more nautical miles west would put me in cat one or two winds/surge. I'll let you guys know tonight my choice.

[artist]

I am actually being told that even us here in Nova Scotia will start to feel the outer rim of this thing as early as tomorrow. The breeze will start to be a constant breeze, and will just get worse as the days go bye. Do you guys agree that even with how far south it is, that we will start to feel it tomorrow?

hopefully one of the METS will see your question soon. Stay safe!

[emeraldislencguy]

Emerald Isle here
jsut got back from the pier
the waves are building since I was last out there at 1
what is so amazing very very few people seemed worried about the storm
most every house has all the porch furniture still outside and no one has really made any preparations that you can see from just riding by
some of the locals are amzaed at the "dont worry" attitude of the tourists
if it does get closer everyone will be in for a rude awakening