ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Reminder to remove IMG tags when quoting.

Sorry Ivanhater

[caneseddy]

Well, this historical image certainly clarifies where Gaston will end up:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _climo.gif

Somewhere between Mississippi and Spain.

Well that really narrows it down

I see some big ones there (1928 Lake Okeechobee, Donna, David, Hugo, etc.); also you can't see Puerto Rico on that map because of all the tracks over it

Edit by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[fci]

He looks a whole lot better than his sister.

[blazess556]

Interesting tid bit from the latest disco

THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.

discounting the euro.

[caneseddy]

Interesting tid bit from the latest disco

THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.

discounting the euro.

Second straight storm where the NHC is discounting the Euro in their initial advisories

[cycloneye]

[Canelaw99]

to my untrained eyes, Gaston is looking good considering there was just a 10% chance of development yesterday

[windycity]

Yes, just yesterday Gaston was a simple invest, today, he has become a man!! Seriously, Gaston looks great right now.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Probably 85% of storms recurve before the states at this point, its the NE Caribbean that needs watching...

However lets not forget we may still have Fiona about which will likely keep a weakness open, and Gaston will be nearly at the same longitude by 120hrs if Fiona is still about and quite probably a hurricane and so hopefully the two combined with the troughy general pattern between 55-65W will be enough to lift this one up and over the NE Caribbean and into an early recurve pattern...

However I'd not get my hopes too high that this occurs to be honest at this stage...the key will be Fiona...very much the same way as DAnielle was the key to Earl, Earl was the key to Fiona and so on...

[HurricaneRobert]

Two words: Hebert Box

Wow, this thing is stealthy.

[StormClouds63]

Just my early opinion on Gaston:

Threat to Leeward and Winward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, and perhaps FL and U.S. east coast = good chance.

Threat to GOM = don't see it ... historically, the tracks say no.

Fronts, albeit weak ones, are starting to push south toward the Gulf coast states.

[Ivanhater]

Just my early opinion on Gaston:

Threat to Leeward and Winward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, and perhaps FL and U.S. east coast = good chance.

Threat to GOM = don't see it ... historically, the tracks say no.

Fronts, albeit weak ones, are starting to push south toward the Gulf coast states.

I disagree...Based on historical data on storms around Gaston in September, every storm that got into the Caribbean went into the Gulf or South Florida. Based on how far south the GFS brings this into the Caribbean is telling.

[KWT]

Sounds reasonable to me though I've been looking at the synoptics and if it does get far enough west quickly enough then it could go well west of even the 18z GFS track. For now though the threat IMO is increasing for at least the NE Caribbean but possibly for location to the south of where Earl hit...

[cycloneye]

There are some clustered over PR.

[Hurricane]

I think Gaston is headed for the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Wxman57, what is your first analysis of Gastons future intensity but more important,the track?

[KWT]

:uarrow: There are some clustered over PR.

Yeah quite a few hit the NE Caribbean in general, looking at the GFS/CMC recently thats gotta be a real concern, the NE Caribbean could be dealing with its 2nd hurricane in as many weeks if it doesn't gain more latitude.

[RL3AO]

I think Gaston is headed for the Gulf.

A tad early don't you think?

[Wayne]

I think Gaston is headed for the Gulf.

A tad early don't you think?

I hope its not Louisiana bound for sure