ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheBurn]

I bet they're getting impressive waves in Florida!

The 'big' swell starts rolling in tonight. 120-mile buoy shows 13.8 ft @ 16 sec.
Once it gets to the 20-mile buoy then we know it's on...
Today we have leftovers from Danielle mixed in with a decent-sized windswell.
Tomorrow will be HUGE. Waves will be epic when wind goes off-shore later in the day.

[ozonepete]

Is this a cool buoy data plot or what?

I LOVE those charts. That particular buoy tells the whole story of how strong Earl is. Thanks for posting it.

[TropicalWXMA]

perhaps earl is makin his turn...now toward the NNW....

the reason i say this is because ......he didn't just have a wobble to the N ...but to the NNE on the last frame....to my eyes unless something is different

I see this too. The next 2 frames will confirm or deny. Could be turning or could just be another wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[ozonepete]

perhaps earl is makin his turn...now toward the NNW....

the reason i say this is because ......he didn't just have a wobble to the N ...but to the NNE on the last frame....to my eyes unless something is different

I see this too. The next 2 frames will confirm or deny. Could be turning or could just be another wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

That sure looks like a temp wobble. They are really common in cat 4 and 5. So you are wise to say we need to watch the next few, but I'd say more than 2 frames to see if there's a change.

[lester]

It's a wobble.

[plasticup]

Wobble for sure. Steering currents are still where they are supposed to be.

[CronkPSU]

but wobbles are still huge when the line between landfall and offshore is so minute

[TropicalWXMA]

Wobble for sure. Steering currents are still where they are supposed to be.

Which image should I be looking at you think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Now the track is edging back towards me! No real preperations up here yet. Everyone thinks we're safe!

[60 miles North of New York City]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Closeup Java loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[SunnyThoughts]

Geeze Louiseeee we need recon out there

[plasticup]

Wobble for sure. Steering currents are still where they are supposed to be.

Which image should I be looking at you think?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

Long-term movement should suffice.

[CronkPSU]

wait we have no recon out there??? WTH are they waiting for!?

[SunnyThoughts]

we haven't had recon the last few hours....and next AF task isn't until 10:30 pm eastern apparently.

[cpdaman]

Closeup Java loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

looks like a NNW turn to me was made

[TropicalWXMA]

Starting to swing back NW in the last 2 images - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[xironman]

Geeze Louiseeee we need recon out there

Look at the size of that eye, I guess I will resist the temptation to break out the "a" word

[AJF0602]

This storms looks very impressive; wouldn't be surprised if it was well over 135 mph.

[jaysonx]

Geeze Louiseeee we need recon out there

Look at the size of that eye, I guess I will resist the temptation to break out the "a" word

Word is thrown around way too much, should be a banning policy regarding it.

[KWT]

Earl looks very powerful now, I'd go with 125kts right now personally given that presentation...though Earl may not be quite taking down the winds to the surface but who knows!

Also yeah wobbles are well justified at this stage given how tight this set-up is for the E.coast, even a 2-3hrs wobble could be the difference between the W.Eyewall clobbering the OB or it staying offshore.