ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[gboudx]

I think Gaston is headed for the Gulf.

A tad early don't you think?

Technically, he's right. It's headed in the direction of the Gulf. Now will it actually make it there? Predictions like that should contain some short duration banning if wrong.

[HurricaneRobert]

Gaston is 3000 miles from the Gulf, so just a slight turn north right now could head it out to sea or to the east coast.

[ROCK]

nice banding taking shape...should ramp up over night I suspect....

[Ladylight]

Am I way off base and/or way too early or does this look like he's heading into the Hebert Box?

Also, does the Hebert Box generally predict anywhere in Fl or is it the GOM or EC? I used to know this and can't remember -- old age getting the better of me. Thanks for any insight.

[RL3AO]

Also, does the Hebert Box generally predict anywhere in Fl or is it the GOM or EC? I used to know this and can't remember -- old age getting the better of me. Thanks for any insight.

Hebert just noted that many of the major hurricanes that hit South Florida moved through one of two Hebert boxes. Its not a predictive tool.

[Hurricane]

Just PM'd with Wxman. I asked, "Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."
Wxman was kidding... Should've thought before I asked.

[Wx_Warrior]

I need to get with him about my 10-game parlay for this Saturday with College Football starting.

[chris_fit]

Just PM'd with Wxman. I asked, "Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."

I love a little humor from the pros...

[BatzVI]

Really not liking what the GFS is showing...too much like Marilyn

[apocalypt-flyer]

Just PM'd with Wxman. I asked, "Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."

And that's the right answer to that kinda question.

[KWT]

Really not liking what the GFS is showing...too much like Marilyn

Yeah the GFS really is close to what happened with Marilyn, esp after Earl wasn't all that far removed from Luis in terms of track, though Earl didn't strengthen too much till just after its brush with the islands...

We'll have to see, but Gaston isn't going anywhere fast and there is at least 5 days before Gaston reaches the Caribbean, if not longer.

[blazess556]

01/2345 UTC 13.2N 36.9W T2.5/2.5 GASTON

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 371W, 35, 1005, TS

[BatzVI]

Longer would make me happy...still no power yet....other parts of the island have it, but seems the northside is always the last ones

[Migle]

Gaston is definitely one to watch for the US. First its has to get past the islands, which doesn't need another storm after heaving TS and Hurricane Watches pretty much all of the last couple of days.

[BatzVI]

Well, the shutters are staying up...going to be a long next few weeks...

[wxman57]

Just PM'd with Wxman. I asked, "Do you think Gaston could end up hitting Southeast Texas?" Here's what he replied back: "Probably. I have it moving ashore just south of Freeport at 8:33pm on Monday, Sept. 13th."
Wxman was kidding... Should've thought before I asked.

Ask a stupid question..

[BatzVI]

Wxman....what are your true thoughts about Gaston in relation to the islands? Just curious....

[StormClouds63]

Michael:

How strong is the ridge? Is it strong enough to push this system west or west-northwest? Are you thinking this might even reach the western Caribbean and then turn north or north-northeast perhaps across Cuba or through the Yucutan ... similar to (no pun intended) Ivan in 2004? Could it reach that far west before feeling a trough?

I mentioned that the western GOM would be unlikely because the fronts (very weak "dry" fronts) are starting to push through ... so I could perhaps see maybe the central or eastern GOM coast ... perhaps as far west as Mobile or Pensacola.

I don't think this stays a Caribbean "low-rider" circa 2007. It will eventually feel the tug northward.

Anyway, I'll be watching and following your posts. Don't always agree, but that's what makes it interesting.

[cycloneye]

Wxman....what are your true thoughts about Gaston in relation to the islands? Just curious....

Wxman57, what is your first analysis of Gastons future intensity but more important,the track?

I asked that question earlier,but as the pages of the thread changed,maybe he didn't see it,but is the one question that all of us who live in the NE Caribbean has right now.