ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[wxman57]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[shah8]

inner ring distended to the NW.

[webke]

Why is it starting to shed the tail it has had above it forthe last few hours.

you mean Fiona?

no Earl for the last few hours had that band to the north of it pushing forward, that is going away. I don't think that was Fiona but I could be wrong of course.

[shah8]

oh.my.god.

wobble-watch people!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

He could become a Cat 5 before his death in a couple of days! Would NOT surprise me...very impressive eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

154 kt at that level equates to about 120 kt at the surface.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is tracking a bit right of the NHC forecast line.

It still has a decent shot of moving up the Eastern Seaboard, just far enough off the coast as to not have the hurricane-force winds over the mainland.

[jeff]

Why is it starting to shed the tail it has had above it forthe last few hours.

you mean Fiona?

no Earl for the last few hours had that band to the north of it pushing forward, that is going away. I don't think that was Fiona but I could be wrong of course.

I assume you are talking of the cirrus outflow moving NW away from the CDO...this is just outflow at the upper levels pushing NW into fairly dry air over the eastern US and the W ATL. Strong outflow channel noted NE of the system over Bermuda.

[Julanne]

oh.my.god.

wobble-watch people!

I think I need a lesson......How do you see the wobble?

[Buck]

I wouldn't be surprised with a bump in the winds at 11pm...

[CronkPSU]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

905!?!?!?!?

a 30 mb drop in 3 hours!?!?!?

[jeff]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

905!?!?!?!?

a 30 mb drop in 3 hours!?!?!?

That was the level of the 154kt winds...not the central pressure.

[Stephanie]

oh.my.god.

wobble-watch people!

I think I need a lesson......How do you see the wobble?

Look at the various links showing Earl's movement. You'll see Earl moving in one direction, say NW and then a little westerly and then back to the northwest. That's a wobble.

[Time_Zone]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

905!?!?!?!?

a 30 mb drop in 3 hours!?!?!?

I think you misunderstood his post lol

[abajan]

This still has to pass over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, correct?

[cpdaman]

last two hours ....has been movin 320 degrees

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[CronkPSU]

OH!!!! i totally misunderstood it, whew

[jeff]

Inner core seems to be currently protected from the very dry air to the NW through SW of the system...hence little to no convection SW through SE of the CDO. Will see how long this is able to sustain, but I suspect we are seeing Earl's peak now through the next 12-18 hours and then the dry air will get into the inner core and weakening will begin.

[shah8]

The double eyewall thing is probably a bigger issue to me though. From what I've seen with recent hurricanes, those with double eyewalls tend to be able to store more energy into their system. Winds don't go up as much but they don't wind down quickly either. Tho' I associate them with hurricanes that are trapped in EWRCs, and not a strengthening hurricane like Earl.

was kidding about the wobble watch reaction, btw.

[Buck]

Maybe it is fatigue, but watching loops of Earl right now are hypnotic... seeing that gorgeous spin, watching the eye clear out and round off. My eyes are falling out of focus!