UBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 023
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.3N 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 118.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.9N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.5N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.9N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 118.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011604Z TRMM 85 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK (5-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON TAIWAN RADAR FIXES AND
THE 011604Z TRMM IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
BY TAU 12. THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT
THIS TRACK. TS 07W SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
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WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1006 LIONROCK (1006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 23.4N 117.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 24.4N 113.9E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
Current vis:
Nice microwave image at landfall:
