ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheBurn]

Interesting angle...
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[Hurrilurker]

LOL, 905 pressure would be insane, that has to be a mistake. However, it looks like the plane did just fine a 932 pressure, which is a considerable drop.

[TexasF6]

OMG...177mph at flight level!!!! That is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!! wowzers.............holy smokes Batman!!!! Thanks wxman...............

[jeff]

LOL, 905 pressure would be insane, that has to be a mistake. However, it looks like the plane did just fine a 932 pressure, which is a considerable drop.

Once again 905mb was the flight level winds not the central pressure.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

oh.my.god.

wobble-watch people!

I think I need a lesson......How do you see the wobble?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Tstormwatcher]

Watching the weather channel, they said that although the pressure has dropped to 932, the winds have yet to catchup to the drop. Still at 135mph.

[Hurrilurker]

Sweet high-res MODIS image of Earl taken earlier today:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images ... 44_lrg.jpg

[RL3AO]

OMG...177mph at flight level!!!! That is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!! wowzers.............holy smokes Batman!!!! Thanks wxman...............

It wasn't at flight level. It was recorded by the dropsonde around 500 feet off the ground (or around there)

[Dean4Storms]

Can someone please post one of those windfield maps that were posted a few days back?

(i will try to find example)

Here you go Hurricane Andrew:

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position & windfield. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

Keep in mind those winds are over open seas and will not be as strong over land especially the western quadrant where you will have westerly winds. You might experience some winds close to that if you were right along the beach due north of the center or east of it however.

[rockyman]

[gatorcane]

Inner core seems to be currently protected from the very dry air to the NW through SW of the system...hence little to no convection SW through SE of the CDO. Will see how long this is able to sustain, but I suspect we are seeing Earl's peak now through the next 12-18 hours and then the dry air will get into the inner core and weakening will begin.

i agree, you have dry air and increasing SW shear from the strong 500MB trough. It's difficult to get a CAT3+ to sustain long north of about 30N anyway. But where Earl is at now is quite ideal and usually a haven for monster hurricanes (near the Bahamas).

[Sean in New Orleans]

last two hours ....has been movin 320 degrees

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

That is a strengthening system! Totally impressive. I do think it will skirt the outerbanks, but, I am praying the eyewall away from the outerbanks. That would mean death. And I don't want to see death. On the night before Katrina struck I was in the Quarter and 1,800 people were breathing and 24 hours later, they weren't. Hurricanes aren't our friends.

[expat2carib]

A very beautiful, impressive system. Please take this system serious! It's a nightmare in the making.

Stay safe all in the projected cone.

[Raebie]

That's a mighty round hurricane with a very large eye.

Raebie, not saying the 'a' word

[OuterBanker]

Gotta go to bed, but it doesn't seem that it will be west of 75 at 30. That would be a good thing.

[storm4u]

all i have to say is WOW! Ill be on the cape for this one 2!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES01312010245DrZMAw.jpg

[CronkPSU]

couple of steps to the right followed by a couple of steps to the left...getting mighty close to 75

[fasterdisaster]

Earl's looking the best he ever has! If it were my decision I'd up the winds to 120 or 125 based on the dropsonde and pressure.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[gatorcane]

Click this link and see how it is right of the forecast track, wobbling some but still looks like it will miss the next forecast point to the right (click Trop Pts). Every one of these misses helps strengthen the argument that this stays offshore enough to not be a catastrophic situation for anybody along the Eastern Seaboard:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Though it is important to note that anybody in the cone can be a target given the cone of uncertainty.