ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[rockyman]

[Buck]

I just can't stop staring!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@SeaninNOLA....good to see you on the boards! I remember your posts always being on point and insightful, but I still think the coast will take a hit from this before he turns....Norcross made it plain and simple about the synoptics...and Gaston!?!! But oh my....Earl is putting on a show off the coast tonight....a spectacle of nature's fury......

Earl is extremely impressive....I believe that is a Cat. 5 tonight. Sure is a beautiful red wedding ring isn't it!!!!

I agree with that presentation, he has to be a cat. 5 right now.

[Ivanhater]

[Windtalker1]

Click this link and see how it is right of the forecast track, wobbling some but still looks like it will miss the next forecast point to the right (click Trop Pts). Every one of these misses helps strengthen the argument that this stays offshore enough to not be a catastrophic situation for anybody along the Eastern Seaboard:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Though it is important to note that anybody in the cone can be a target given the cone of uncertainty.

I think it's only because it took a step on the stair.....he should be right on it's next forcast point.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting fact every historic major hurricane that I found which effected New England, was a cat. 5 in its' life cycle near the Bahamas (or so the evidence suggests).

[CronkPSU]

someone earlier today was using the 30N/75W as a good barometer, if it crossed 75W before hitting 30N, it would at least skim the coast, looks like it may pass right around the 30N/75W spot...so as with everything with this storm, more uncertainty

[Dean4Storms]

It is on the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge, it is going to stair step as a ridge is not a smooth line.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://i56.tinypic.com/2uibqyu.gif

Back to the NW motion from earlier.

[SunnyThoughts]

Everytime I look at the next satellite pic, I expect to see some kind of weakening somewhere in the storm, yet each time it always looks better than the last. Look Earl, you've shown us your stuff now..enough is enough.

[AJF0602]

I know its bad to wobble watch but its definately making up for the north turn it took earlier, this surely has to be close to a cat 5 right now.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://i56.tinypic.com/2uibqyu.gif

Look at that clear eye, and ring of gray on the loop. That, imo, has to be a cat 5 right now. I'd say 160 mph sustained.

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[Zarniwoop]

I'm stunned at how quickly he ramped up to gorgeous.

[RL3AO]

Look at that clear eye, and ring of gray on the loop. That, imo, has to be a cat 5 right now. I'd say 160 mph sustained.

It looks nice, but there is no evidence of a cat 5. In fact, with a possible 2nd eyewall developing, it probably won't be able to get to cat 5 strength. Simple conservation of angular momentum.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't think it's quite a Cat 5, but it's definitely close. My guess would be 150-155.

[HURAKAN]

b-e-a-utiful

[ozonepete]

Click this link and see how it is right of the forecast track, wobbling some but still looks like it will miss the next forecast point to the right (click Trop Pts). Every one of these misses helps strengthen the argument that this stays offshore enough to not be a catastrophic situation for anybody along the Eastern Seaboard:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Though it is important to note that anybody in the cone can be a target given the cone of uncertainty.

That is what I have been watching and the good Lord is answering my prayers. This baby is out to sea and we can all be thankful that we are going to be (mostly) spared this monster! I am getting more relaxed with Earl as each hour passes....But, NOT, with Gaston. This is my biggest concern thus far this season....my eyes are on Gaston.

You're saying it's "out to sea". Please put in a forecast disclaimer when you say that and make sure to tell people who may be in harms way that you are not 100% sure about what you're saying.

[blazess556]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/tc_ssmis/91hw/20100901.2321.f16.x.91hw.07LEARL.110kts-941mb-257N-727W.96pc.jpg

b-e-a-utiful

i don't get why recon is finding the south eyewall open?

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[Steve]

>>I remember your posts always being on point and insightful...

He's a good guy and a Saints fan. But anyone who has been here for any length of time will recall the proclamations in mid-August 2005 and mid-August 2008 that the respective storm seasons were over for the Gulf. Granted, that was plucked from the terrible weather forums at wwltv, but he (and they, including professional meteorologists over there) missed the cold fronts doing exactly what they were supposed to do to usher in the mid-summer pattern. gboudx remembers.

[CronkPSU]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

may not be twins but they at least look like brothers, what a difference one night makes, hope unlike hugo, earl stays out at sea