ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[JPmia]

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Can someone figure out the surface level winds on these new recon wind measurements?

On another note, I'm surprised by what I hear on the news about folks in these towns in the warning area not evacuating. The 11pm update might make some of these folks think twice about their decision.

[TexasF6]

Hold up angular mo---they already found 177mph winds 500ft above sea level and the pressure had not yet caught up to the surface winds, then recon finds a 199mph gust in the eyewall. Cat 5 is a high probabilty here....i'm just sayin!!!!

[invest man]

question? was this perdicted to get this strong in this area, because it was my thought that alittle weaking was suppose to take place! Also 2 thoughts. Would a stronger Earl stay nw longer or would it be more likely to recurve quicker? and is it possible for this to try and out run the trough and in the short term "may" allow for a landfall left of forcast track? IM

[ozonepete]

Anyone recall if Earl even remotely resembles Hugo?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/gallery/mcidas ... s/Hugo.gif

may not be twins but they at least look like brothers, what a difference one night makes, hope unlike hugo, earl stays out at sea

yeah, that just looks really really bad. Just have to hope it recurves soon, though that is looking really unikely right now.

[TheBurn]

[lester]

There's no reason to upgrade this to a cat5. Recon only supports 140 mph. Sorry to burst your bubble

[abajan]

http://i56.tinypic.com/2uibqyu.gif

Look at that clear eye, and ring of gray on the loop. That, imo, has to be a cat 5 right now. I'd say 160 mph sustained.

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

Okay, let’s not get carried away here. It’s probably no more than 150 mph (maximum sustained winds) tops. Anyway, the next advisory will tell all.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

question? was this perdicted to get this strong in this area, because it was my thought that alittle weaking was suppose to take place! Also 2 thoughts. Would a stronger Earl stay nw longer or would it be more likely to recurve quicker? and is it possible for this to try and out run the trough and in the short term "may" allow for a landfall left of forcast track? IM

Certain models showed it bombing out in this region to around 932 mb last weekend. I think the European Model was one?

[Stormcenter]

145mph-150mph......IMO

Just saw a report from a NOAA plane of 154 kts at 905mb and "a near perfect outflow". In addition, a nice double eyewall structure on the microwave imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Can someone figure out the surface level winds on these new recon wind measurements?

On another note, I'm surprised by what I hear on the news about folks in these towns in the warning area not evacuating. The 11pm update might make some of these folks think twice about their decision.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

EVIL EARL

[TexasF6]

For those who do not leave as ordered? two things to give to local police--SSN's, and Next of Kin.... Hurricanes and Earl are not to be taken lightly....IMO.....

[SunnyThoughts]

And yet another view, hopefully at his peak

[Raebie]

Damn. That's incredible.

[terrapintransit]

EVIL EARL

http://a.imageshack.us/img231/134/48541007.jpg

I have never seen a Hurricane that looked that perfect...just WOW!

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags.

[SootyTern]

You'd have to be insane to stay on the Outer Banks with this thing approaching....

[fasterdisaster]

I think it's safe to say that no northerly trend has begun just yet. More a NW to NNW motion with some deceptive wobbles. Earl really is a nailbiter!

[MWatkins]

And who said this was a slow season? Hopefully this will be a brush, and not a punch from Earl.

Remarkable to see this kind of intensification in this part of the basin.

MW

[Sean in New Orleans]

>>I remember your posts always being on point and insightful...

He's a good guy and a Saints fan. But anyone who has been here for any length of time will recall the proclamations in mid-August 2005 and mid-August 2008 that the respective storm seasons were over for the Gulf. Granted, that was plucked from the terrible weather forums at wwltv, but he (and they, including professional meteorologists over there) missed the cold fronts doing exactly what they were supposed to do to usher in the mid-summer pattern. gboudx remembers.

Nobody has ever been right every time...God, I wish I would have been right in Summer, 2005. If ONLY I could have the lost belongings and pictures of my Grandmother who passed in 1983 back! I long for those more every day. GO SAINTS!! TWO DAT, BABY!!!

[Ivanhater]

Please, if you are going to quote someone with an image, remove the IMG tags.