ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Billy]

any word on the trough, looks like right now Earl is winning the race

I live in TN and tomorrow is going to be 94 degrees, no front yet. The front is not to come through our area till sometime late Friday. I do not think it will make it in time to curve Earl as much as they think.

Just my opinion

I'm liken to agree, up here in Rochester it's supposed to be 91 tomorrow, and 88 on Friday. So no front getting near the East Coast until late Friday, early Saturday. That being said I don't know much about how far ahead of the front you need to be to start feeling its effects so it could be right on target to push Earl out of the way.

From what the local guys are saying it is the upper level winds in front of the cold front that will push it out. They continue to say it will stay off the coast but for some reason their projections keep inching toward the coast.

[sponger]

ABSOLUTELY AMAZING. I still doubt the eye makes it ashore but you would have to be crazy to stay in obx if it hits the edge of the cone. I think a lot of people will be looking to evac tomorrow. I would leave tonight to avoid the crowd.

[fig]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 020255
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 73.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 73.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 73.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Billy]

Wow... It sure would be nice to find out what this thing is going to do. I am in Hampton, VA and am in an area known for getting hit hard by weaker storms. Isabelle put 5 feet of water in my garage, which is the first story of my house.
I have everything of value packed up in the garage. The race car is ready to get relocated.

I am in Hampton as well. Generally speaking if you live east of King Street or anywhere within a mile of the water you are subject to flooding. Also the Riverdale area with its creeks and poor drainage is also subject to flooding. Any flooding from this though will likely be tidal or surge related since this doesnt look like a rain event.

I live on the beach side of first street in Hampton.

[hcane27]

How accurate is HurricaneAlley.net?

They are NOT the NHC , but at least they don't claim to be ..... they do offer all the appropriate disclaimers ... just remember that the NHC is "official" ... everyone else is merely an opinion .....

[cpdaman]

ABSOLUTELY AMAZING. I still doubt the eye makes it ashore but you would have to be crazy to stay in obx if it hits the edge of the cone. I think a lot of people will be looking to evac tomorrow. I would leave tonight to avoid the crowd.

hey sponger...how bout this ...nice lil swell off augie. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[cycloneye]

LOCATION...27.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

[pimentel2]

Advisory 11PM is out! Oh no...even CLOSER.



Looks like those 15 flashlights will be put to good use

[SootyTern]

Let's hope they're wrong (hurricaneAlley.net) that looks like a really bad hit

[SkeetoBite]

[shah8]

It's all about 75 degrees west, ain't it?

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory 11PM is out! Oh no...even CLOSER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif
Looks like those 15 flashlights will be put to good use

Actually, the cone has been nudged to the East, away from land, but only a little.

[sponger]

ABSOLUTELY AMAZING. I still doubt the eye makes it ashore but you would have to be crazy to stay in obx if it hits the edge of the cone. I think a lot of people will be looking to evac tomorrow. I would leave tonight to avoid the crowd.

hey sponger...how bout this ...nice lil swell off augie. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

The canaveral buoy is reading 16 feet 15 seconds.! Unfortunately magic seaweed shows a rapidly decreasing swell. The offshore session tomorrow eve will be epic!!!

[CronkPSU]

It's all about 75 degrees west, ain't it?

yep...and it still looks like it will get further west to me, going to have to make a big turn once the front gets there...NHC seems pretty confident though and they have the biggest and strongest computers and sats in the world...hope they are right

[toto]

I think a lot of people will be looking to evac tomorrow. I would leave tonight to avoid the crowd.

You don't want to be stuck in bumper to bumper traffic like those poor souls who evacuated Houston.

[sponger]

Advisory 11PM is out! Oh no...even CLOSER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif
Looks like those 15 flashlights will be put to good use

Actually, the cone has been nudged to the East, away from land, but only a little.

Maybe they are buying into that north wobble being a sign of things to come. It sure is hauling butt right now.

[cpdaman]

Advisory 11PM is out! Oh no...even CLOSER.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif
Looks like those 15 flashlights will be put to good use

Actually, the cone has been nudged to the East, away from land, but only a little.

Maybe they are buying into that north wobble being a sign of things to come. It sure is hauling butt right now.

not sure about it being nudged to the east...well not sure about hatteras but for for SNE it's not. the error cone did gets smaller for NC so the error cone shited east but also contracted to the west on the right side a bit.

[SunnyThoughts]

[sponger]

Looks like not as sharp of a turn either due to the slower arrival of the cold front. I think it puts Mass in much more danger of a close scrape.

[Steve]

Forecaster Pasch said this cycle's consensus nudged about 20 miles east. What he also said was EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

Scary enough. I hope it stays well offshore.