ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3861 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:18 pm

Just came home to find out that I'm under a Tropical Storm Watch, I haven't seen one of those in a while. Does anyone know the last tropical storm watch that included all of nj, maybe Isabel?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3862 Postby jabman98 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:18 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Also, does anyone remember the guy from the early years of S2K from SNE who thought every storm was going to hit New England? Wonder where he is now? This just may be the storm he was waiting for. :wink:

I remember that. Wasn't he on the old pbi board? Derecho or something like that? I was thinking the same thing...Earl may finally be the storm that goes SNE. Be careful what you wish for.

Earl really is a gorgeous storm. Scary as anything, but really beautiful. I hope he stays offshore.

FWIW, I know someone who lives nearish to the coast in NC (about 20 miles inland). She reports that her dog and cat are going nuts. Behaving very strangely. It's making her really nervous about the storm, as they never act this way. It's like they know something is coming.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3863 Postby Macrocane » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:19 pm

Trivia:

Earl is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic since 2008 Paloma (145 mph) and has the lowest pressure since 2007 Felix (929 mb).
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3864 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:19 pm

NHC discussion mentioned some models moving the track east about 20 nm, but that was a side note, not a change to the official forecast. Now that it's only 24 hours away, if you are in the cone -- pretty much all of OBX -- you should be planning to evacuate. No way you want to be in possible cat 3 or even Cat 4 winds, with no emergency services, power, storm surge, etc. etc. House may be fairly well built, and the trajectory is not one that would put storm surge directly ashore like a storm moving east to west would, but still.

Here is the quote from the 11 p.m. discussion:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3865 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:24 pm

jabman98 wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:Also, does anyone remember the guy from the early years of S2K from SNE who thought every storm was going to hit New England? Wonder where he is now? This just may be the storm he was waiting for. :wink:

I remember that. Wasn't he on the old pbi board? Derecho or something like that? I was thinking the same thing...Earl may finally be the storm that goes SNE. Be careful what you wish for.

Earl really is a gorgeous storm. Scary as anything, but really beautiful. I hope he stays offshore.

FWIW, I know someone who lives nearish to the coast in NC (about 20 miles inland). She reports that her dog and cat are going nuts. Behaving very strangely. It's making her really nervous about the storm, as they never act this way. It's like they know something is coming.


That was Pauk!!! Maybe he is still there and now in ecstasy over this.
OK, back to Earl.
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#3866 Postby Raebie » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:25 pm

Any thoughts on how Earl will react to the approaching ULL if he maintains his strength?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3867 Postby neospaceblue » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:25 pm

Okay, I am getting really nervous. The last storm of this caliber to head for the area was Isabel, which had dropped to a Category 2 at this point. What kind of effects would Newport News, VA get from this?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3868 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:27 pm

neospaceblue wrote:Okay, I am getting really nervous. The last storm of this caliber to head for the area was Isabel, which had dropped to a Category 2 at this point. What kind of effects would Newport News, VA get from this?


Seeing how your under a hurricane watch, prepare for hurricane effects.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3869 Postby rosethornil » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:27 pm

Frankly, I can not believe they haven't called for the evacuation of the Outer Banks, particularly the Southern Shores (Duck, Corolla, etc). I'm a frequent visitor to the Southern Shores and something many folks don't understand is, that it is a VERY thin strip of land bordered by water on two sides. The only way in or out is Route 12, which is not much of road and is LOW.

Parts of Southern Shores are not even 1/2 mile wide. Again, I'm very surprised they haven't called for its evacuation.

Many of the houses in the Southern Shores area are NOT that well built. The area was hugely built up in the 1980s and 90s, and I'm not impressed with the quality of construction. (I'm an architectural historian by trade.)

As to the critters, my attentive Sheltie is as calm as always. No signs of animal upset - not yet. I'm in Norfolk.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3870 Postby Billy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:28 pm

Recurve wrote:NHC discussion mentioned some models moving the track east about 20 nm, but that was a side note, not a change to the official forecast. Now that it's only 24 hours away, if you are in the cone -- pretty much all of OBX -- you should be planning to evacuate. No way you want to be in possible cat 3 or even Cat 4 winds, with no emergency services, power, storm surge, etc. etc. House may be fairly well built, and the trajectory is not one that would put storm surge directly ashore like a storm moving east to west would, but still.

Here is the quote from the 11 p.m. discussion:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE.

LOL, I don't think anybody knows what is going to happen. I am watching the 11 o'clock news, at first he came out and said pretty much what everyone else has been saying all day. About 15 mins later he came back out saying, well we may see a little more in the Bay than we have been expecting. They had ran some model with the 11pm updates and it is now expecting Isabel and the last nor-eastern we had tidal heights.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3871 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:29 pm

At this point, it looks like Earl should be right at 75W/30N unless it significantly wobbles more to the north. He can still move further west at 30N if he does a significant wobble more to the NW/WNW. I think if Earl makes it past 75.5W, than N.C. to Cape Cod is in big trouble because the turn is forecast to be less sharp and Earl is a large system. A lot of coastal areas would see hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3872 Postby jabman98 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:30 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
jabman98 wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:Also, does anyone remember the guy from the early years of S2K from SNE who thought every storm was going to hit New England? Wonder where he is now? This just may be the storm he was waiting for. :wink:

I remember that. Wasn't he on the old pbi board? Derecho or something like that? I was thinking the same thing...Earl may finally be the storm that goes SNE. Be careful what you wish for.


That was Pauk!!! Maybe he is still there and now in ecstasy over this.
OK, back to Earl.

Pauk! That's right. The chatroom on that place was nuts and he'd go on and on about SNE. I hope he's happy, wherever he is!

They haven't called for evacs for all the OB yet? I hope they don't get into a Houston/Rita-like situation. What a nightmare.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3873 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:32 pm

You guys notice change in the SW corner of the system?

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3874 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:35 pm

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]You guys notice change in the SW corner of the system?

quote]

Looks like an enormous rainband to its west. The problem with this is that it might pull Earl to the west, ever so slightly. But, if you're talking about Earl, ever so slightly could be the difference between a miserable day: 40-50mph sustained winds, with gusts to 60, and dangerous, hurricane conditions.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3875 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:35 pm

Into 20 kts of shear.

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#3876 Postby Billy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:35 pm

How long after a recon update are the computer models updated?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3877 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:36 pm

Perhaps maybe we've seen Earl at peak intensity?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3878 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:37 pm

[url]Image[/url]
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3879 Postby UpTheCreek » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:39 pm

jabman98 wrote:I remember that. Wasn't he on the old pbi board? Derecho or something like that? I was thinking the same thing...Earl may finally be the storm that goes SNE. Be careful what you wish for.

Earl really is a gorgeous storm. Scary as anything, but really beautiful. I hope he stays offshore.

FWIW, I know someone who lives nearish to the coast in NC (about 20 miles inland). She reports that her dog and cat are going nuts. Behaving very strangely. It's making her really nervous about the storm, as they never act this way. It's like they know something is coming.


I lived in So. Cal. for 23 years prior to moving here to NC. Without fail, my labs, who were normally pretty heavy sleepers, would start prancing around and making noise prior to an earthquake. It got to be almost routine! I'd get up, secure everything I needed to and wait. Sure enough, minutes later, sometimes 15 or 20 minutes would go by, but the rumbling would start. It was just uncanny. But during the daytime, they were already up and about anyway, so there was generally no warning.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#3880 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:40 pm

The weather channel reported that evacs were ordered tonight, to start in the morning, giving everyone time to prepare.

NWS alert:
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
550 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AND THE MONITOR NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ154-020930-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
550 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 16 SECONDS.
.THU...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 30
TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 17
FT DOMINANT PERIOD 15 SECONDS. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NE WINDS 55 TO 65 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 KT...BECOMING NW 60 TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
100 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 TO 26 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY.
.FRI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. NW WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
KT...BECOMING W 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT...SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.


Cape Hatteras has an evacuation order as do some other areas, read specifics below. The emergency management site for Dare County is http://darenc.com/EmgyMgmt/Alert/index.asp

Dare County has announced a mandatory evacuation for all residents and visitors on Hatteras Island effective at 6:00pm Wednesday, September 1. The latest storm track has shifted Hurricane Earl to the west putting hurricane force winds over Hatteras Island early Friday morning.

The evacuation order for both residents and visitors of Hatteras Island does NOT apply for areas north of Oregon Inlet. At this time, the order does NOT include the towns of Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk, Nags Head, Southern Shores, Roanoke Island or mainland Dare County.

As Dare County Emergency Management closely monitors the storm, residents and visitors should be prepared for the possibility of additional evacuations that may be needed tomorrow for mainland and northern portions of Dare County.

A Hurricane Warning was issued today by the National Hurricane Center for all of Dare County and the North Carolina Coast. A Hurricane Warning indicates that sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher are expected within 24 hours.

Dare County Emergency Management advises preparing for the storm by securing all loose outside objects. Other recommended preparation steps include assembling an emergency kit with nonperishable food, water and clothing to sustain each family member for three days.

Household emergency kits should also include a flashlight, radio, spare batteries, medications, blankets and rain gear. Also recommended are photocopies of important family documents, such as birth certificates and insurance policies. Pet owners are reminded to make sure their animals have an identification tag on their collar.

Today Governor Bev Perdue declared a State of Emergency for North Carolina in advance of the arrival of Hurricane Earl. The Governor’s order calls for all state and local agencies to cooperate in the implementation of provisions of the North Carolina Emergency Operations Plan. North Carolina is running extra ferry routes from Ocracoke Island and established an emergency shelter in Pitt County at North Pitt High School at 5659 NC Highway 11 North in Bethel, North Carolina.

On nearby Ocracoke Island, Hyde County Emergency Management issued a mandatory evacuation at 5:00am this morning for all visitors and residents of Ocracoke Island.

All Dare County Schools will be closed on Thursday, September 2 and Friday, September 3. Makeup days are scheduled for Saturday, September 11, and Friday, October 29. All after-school activities are cancelled for Thursday and Friday, including the After-School Enrichment Program

Court sessions at the Dare County Courthouse are cancelled for Thursday and Friday. Those with cases scheduled for either of those days will receive a letter from the Court advising of a new date.

Dare County Parks and Recreation has cancelled all activities for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The National Park Service today closed their Visitor Centers, Campgrounds and the Hatteras Lighthouse until further notice. Ocean-side beach access for off-road vehicles in the Cape Hatteras National Seashore closed at 5:00pm today. Severe coastal storm surge flooding is expected beginning on Thursday. If conditions permit, pedestrian access is allowed.

The Town of Duck’s residential trash collection scheduled for Friday, September 3 has been cancelled. Residential trash will be picked up on the next regularly scheduled collection day which is Monday, September 6. Commercial trash pick-up is not affected.

The Town of Kill Devil Hills will not have residential solid waste collection on Friday, September 3. However, there will be town-wide residential collection on Thursday, September 2. Rollout containers should be placed at the road Wednesday night and remember to properly secure the container after it has been serviced on Thursday.
Normal collection will resume Monday, September 6.

The Town of Nags Head advises all residents and visitors staying on or off of South Old Oregon Inlet Road in South Nags Head to closely monitor the news and weather. It is expected that this area will experience ocean overwash and you should be prepared to leave your home if conditions warrant or if an evacuation is called.

As part of readiness precautions being taken by the Dare County Social Services Department, contact is being made with Hatteras Island residents on the special needs list.

All scheduled rides through the Dare County Transportation System have been cancelled for Friday, September 3.

Residents and visitors are encouraged to monitor local news outlets for further advisories from the National Weather Service and state and local emergency management officials. Bulletins will be issued as needed and available at http://www.darenc.com and on Government Access Channel 20.

###
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