ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe some Dry Air Intrusion Overnight Tonight... Looks like it's bumping the SW quad of the system and you can see the moisture envelope shrinking on the SW quad as well. Looks like a new development, but it is affecting it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Raebie]

Look how much Earl has moved compared to the front. Interesting.

[SouthFloridawx]

I could be wrong.. It's just something I noticed.

[Sanibel]

I could be wrong.. It's just something I noticed.

The Gulf Stream boost could offset that.


Right along NHC track so far...

[Weather Watcher]

I could be wrong.. It's just something I noticed.

Yahoo for dry air!

Sure looks like that to me too.

[UpTheCreek]

Bogue Banks is to be evacuated as well. EmeraldIsleGuy has been here posting a lot on this thread. Bogue Banks includes Emerald Isle all the way up to Atlantic Beach and Ft. Macon. Good deal of folks, and I believe it included mandatory evacuation of residents as well.

It never once occured to me to do so until late tonight, but seeing the strength of Earl and the still uncertainty of it's track in relation to NC, I am planning on packing the truck tomorrow morning. Once it's closer tomorrow and if it happens to look likely get over land at some point here, we might amscray. Wife, 3 kids, a big dog and 2 cats........no idea where we're going to go but I am getting concerned about it's strength and track. It's putting a knot in my stomach, actually. Hopefully, it'll stay on track and lose some strength. I'd really like to stay and ride it out, we're well prepared, including plenty of gas for the genny.

Anyone from New Bern around here tonight? Thoughts?

[Raebie]

OK, I'm 'front obsessed' and I need to go to bed. But...is the front moving as fast as forecast and could Earl acutally slow it down so to speak?

[Recurve]

Creekster, are you sure you're safe from surge and/or rain flooding?
If you can, get on the internet or phone tonight and book a room anywhere inland, or call a friend who's out of an evac zone, you only need to crash there tomorrow night hopefully.

If you are near a coastline getting out is probably best. If you are safe from surge, then there's less reason to have to move. I take it your area doesn't stick out as far as the farthest east point of the outer banks, so that's something, the storm will be tending eastward and hopefully staring to weaken.

[jbtrusty]

UptheCreek -

New Bern resident here - on the Trent, but high ground. Not bugging out, but getting the boats battened down, preparing for the massive branch/tree clean-up

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest

[rosethornil]

Hypothetically speaking, what would the smart, weather-wise people do who lived in Norfolk, Virginia, about six blocks from the Elizabeth River? Say, people who lived in an 87-year-old frame house on high ground, but surrounded by 90-year-old oak trees?

Hypothetically speaking, of course.

[jabman98]

Everyone here in Houston is so excited that we might have a cool front arrive on Friday and bring drier air for the weekend. It's very early in the season for one to get here this early. Is this a particularly strong front? Should definitely have an effect on Earl.

[UpTheCreek]

Recurve......not concerned with water, just a change westward of the track. Isabel went ashore north of us and we didn't have any damage, but it was much weaker too.


Hi Trusty. We're up Brice's Creek so we're almost neighbors. We didn't have a problem with Isabel and the water got very high then. Have covered lift and the boat is lifted up into the rafters. Boat will be fine and not concerned with water, just wind if this thing turns westward on us. I don't know, tough decision. If it stays on track and center is offshore, we'll stay.

[supercane]

Latest microwave imagery:

[SunnyThoughts]

[brunota2003]

Looks like the GFS shifted southwestward some for 0600 UTC on the 3rd (Friday morning) between the 18Z and 00Z runs.

This is the 18Z 0600 (or 36 hours out):
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... 8UTC+036HR

This is the 00Z 0600 (or 30 hours out):
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... 0UTC+030HR

Comments?

[weatherSnoop]

[quote="rosethornil"]Hypothetically speaking, what would the smart, weather-wise people do who lived in Norfolk, Virginia, about six blocks from the Elizabeth River? Say, people who lived in an 87-year-old frame house on high ground, but surrounded by 90-year-old oak trees?

Hypothetically speaking, of course.[/quote

my house sounds similar to yours. Just a block from evac zone from the river, house on bricks built in 1925 and protected oaks that surround the house. Me, my house-mate and the pups go to a friend's house 5 mins away....CB home that has some palm trees, not ancient oaks.

[emeraldislencguy]

up the creek
if you are away from the water you should be ok
Ilive about 75 yards form the ocean and i am leaving on thursday afternoon
going to board up my business and have already secured the house
if you are not in a storn surge area you should be ok

[Sanibel]

That's a ferocious donut of a hurricane you are looking at now, even if it is only 135mph.

Still has a healthy W component.

[BrianD]

Southeastern Virginia Here. Virginia Beach to be exact condo's approx. 1/4 mile from Ocean front in south beach just north of carolina border any pro mets able to chime in and maybe lemme know what I can expect to see. I've been saying it since I seen him as a wave coming off africa I believe Earl is an OBX/ Va Beach, Beach dweller, and My mind still hasn't changed. I'm pretty sure after all is said and done This one may get retired ... Just my opinion but I have been right thus far as to were he's been heading. I do think he may go a little more west than progged due to the speed of his forward motion and that front not going as fast as expected. But it is just my opinion been studying weather a long long time but am not no pro-met. I have a nice hood to the car that needs sandblasted maybe i'll anchor it to the beach and see how clean it is after he passes.