ATL: EARL - Models

[gatorcane]

If it takes any of those tracks those models take it, the worst of it won't be felt in the United States...the NOGAPS is the far left model, usually not good with track. The bad side of the system is typically the eastern side, with SW shear increasing the worst would be over the open waters if these tracks verify. Probably no hurricane-force winds at all seen over land with these tracks:

[brunota2003]

The GFS should be running here shortly, in about 15 minutes, if anyone would like to post the images as they come out. There was another G-IV flight today, so hopefully it'll be nailed down exactly where Earl will go, finally.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[Recurve]

The critical forecast, GFS at 30 hours:

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[brunota2003]

Hm...GFS moves it to the NW/NNW between 0 and 12 hours, then to the N between 12 and 24 hours...the N turn happens pretty much right in line with Cape Hatteras.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[Steve]

GFS looks bad, but not worst case. Looks pretty rough for New England as well on this run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Recurve]

Wow that's close to the OBX. Too much chance of getting part of the eyewall on the beach it looks like.

[Edit, sorry "chance" not "change". Wish it would change.]

[brunota2003]

The format for me is fine...more detail to the images. I cannot get some of them to fully load (dial up), it "looks" like the center just about made landfall on the OBX, would that be westward from the previous runs?

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

The format for me is fine...more detail to the images. I cannot get some of them to fully load (dial up), it "looks" like the center just about made landfall on the OBX, would that be westward from the previous runs?

Here you go...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&page=Model&prevModel=GFS&prevArea=&currKey=region&prevKey=region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

[shah8]

MA gets a mouthfull of eyewall. The slope of recurvature is not that sharp.

There is just no more west to give after this run.

[SunnyThoughts]

Deleted, wrong thread

[brunota2003]

The format for me is fine...more detail to the images. I cannot get some of them to fully load (dial up), it "looks" like the center just about made landfall on the OBX, would that be westward from the previous runs?

Here you go...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&page=Model&prevModel=GFS&prevArea=&currKey=region&prevKey=region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

Haha, thanks =] I'll have to book mark that for when I have faster internet!

[SouthFloridawx]

The format for me is fine...more detail to the images. I cannot get some of them to fully load (dial up), it "looks" like the center just about made landfall on the OBX, would that be westward from the previous runs?

Here you go...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&page=Model&prevModel=GFS&prevArea=&currKey=region&prevKey=region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

Haha, thanks =] I'll have to book mark that for when I have faster internet!

Click the first link. You see where it says loop all? If you click on the down arrow, you can pull up each individual frame... instead of looping it. Click on the hour that you want and then click on the desired output... Example: 10m_wnd_precip