ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

Banding is getting more prominent to the west and northwest, possibly a concern imho.

[SunnyThoughts]

flattening out in the northwestern part of the CDO it would seem

[SouthFloridawx]

[tommccabe]

If the storm takes the westerly path like the GFS suggests, anyone care to venture to guess what kind of storm surge we'd be seeing in New Jersey? It seems like the storm moving north in the early afternoon would really complicate the afternoon high tides (which are already projected to be higher than normal). Mount Holly NWS is saying storm surge locally of 2-3 feet. Do others think that seems accurate or is that on the cautious side?

[toto]

Banding is getting more prominent to the west and northwest, possibly a concern imho.

Concern that it is moving west ?

[fasterdisaster]

If the storm takes the westerly path like the GFS suggests, anyone care to venture to guess what kind of storm surge we'd be seeing in New Jersey? It seems like the storm moving north in the early afternoon would really complicate the afternoon high tides (which are already projected to be higher than normal). Mount Holly NWS is saying storm surge locally of 2-3 feet. Do others think that seems accurate or is that on the cautious side?

This is a BIG BIG if, and the consensus is still that Earl will veer off just in time, but IF Earl followed the GFS, I think 2-3 feet would be much too low an estimate. 2-3 feet is an estimate coming from the consensus.

[StormGuy]

Latest animated loop of Earl.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... t_anim.gif

[BrianD]

Well, you're obviously going to get both rain and surge. But in comparison to the wind and surge, the rain I think is just a nuisance. I don't want to be an alarmist, that's not my style. But you're in a location that, in my opinion, has a very good chance of being absolutely devastated.

I have a feeling it's gonna be very bad very very bad here ! it's one of those gut feelings that tells you, You can never trust weather men only your instincts and those are chiming in with a very bad feeling. Not trying to alarm anyone or anything at all that's just my personal thoughts and feelings as I've been watching before it was ever near here way out in the open atlantic even as a wave I had a very bad feeling about Earl.

[HURAKAN]

920's mb, wow

[StormGuy]

Well, you're obviously going to get both rain and surge. But in comparison to the wind and surge, the rain I think is just a nuisance. I don't want to be an alarmist, that's not my style. But you're in a location that, in my opinion, has a very good chance of being absolutely devastated.

I have a feeling it's gonna be very bad very very bad here ! it's one of those gut feelings that tells you, You can never trust weather men only your instincts and those are chiming in with a very bad feeling. Not trying to alarm anyone or anything at all that's just my personal thoughts and feelings as I've been watching before it was ever near here way out in the open atlantic even as a wave I had a very bad feeling about Earl.

As many have said on here a million times already, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I think it's all about "nowcasting" as far as your area goes at this point. Earl is getting close enough now that it's more about observation than anything.

[latitude_20]

BrianD, always go with your gut. If I were in your place, I'd have zero comfort level with the margin for error right now. Do what you can and best of luck.

[hurricaneCW]

It should be important to note that as large as Earl is now, he will only get bigger. Both the area of hurricane force winds and especially tropical storm force winds will likely expand. Right now it says that tropical storm force winds extend out to 230 miles and hurricane force winds to 90 miles. I think that once the storm is north of 32-34N, the tropical storm force winds will extend up to 260-280 miles and hurricane force winds will extend from 100-120 miles.

This makes sense considering that the tropical storm watches and warnings on NJ and Long Island can only be issued if there is a good chance of getting tropical storm force winds but Earl will be over 150 miles away from those watches and warning areas. So Earl will be a very large hurricane in the mid latitudes. I mean yeah he's large now, but he's just going to get bigger.

[fasterdisaster]

How wide is Earl's eye right now? This could be important if the difference between Earl's center and the coast is only a few miles. The larger the eye, the farther away the eyewall is from the center.

[Annie Oakley]

What is 'OBX'?? (Sorry)

[BrianD]

What is 'OBX'?? (Sorry)

OBX is the term NC's use for North Carolina's Outer Banks hence OBX

[RL3AO]

What is 'OBX'?? (Sorry)

The Outer Banks of North Carolina.

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe she is going to intensify some more while Recon is in there.

[bob rulz]

What is 'OBX'?? (Sorry)

Outer Banks

[CronkPSU]

How wide is Earl's eye right now? This could be important if the difference between Earl's center and the coast is only a few miles. The larger the eye, the farther away the eyewall is from the center.

i was about to ask that as well

[RL3AO]

Eye is about 40 miles wide (diameter)