ATL: GASTON - Models

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BigA
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#361 Postby BigA » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:07 am

Not to mention that there is no earthly way that it will take Gaston 13 days to get to 80 west, if it gets that far.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#362 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:07 am

heck the gfs usually over does troughs in the 120 hour time frame. who knows how much its overdoing a trough in 300 hours... :lol:
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#363 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:11 am

Canadian out in about 10 min..Long range 20 minutes
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#364 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:23 am

We've had East coast troughs all season so it would not surprise me one bit. IMO

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:i still dont think this is going to be a recurver. i feel like this one has gom bound written all over it.
i really want to see what the euro shows tonight.



to be honest I dont think so either....not sure I buy a GOM solution with a freakin winter storm digging through the GOM in Sept... :lol:
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#365 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:25 am

Canadian

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#366 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:26 am

looks like the canadian develops the system behind this one too.
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#367 Postby shah8 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:26 am

Gaston is doing a half recurve in there. It might explain why gfs takes so long getting gaston to the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#368 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:31 am

Long range Canadian is similar to the 12z Euro with an early recurve

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#369 Postby fci » Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:38 am

South Texas Storms wrote:i still dont think this is going to be a recurver. i feel like this one has gom bound written all over it.
i really want to see what the euro shows tonight.


Why do you feel that has gom written all over it?
Anything to do with where you live?

We're talking like 10 days out at least!
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#370 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:05 am

240Hrs

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msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!240!North America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010090200!!chart
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#371 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:17 am

These were the 0z GFS ensembles

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#372 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:30 am

Recurve, anyone?
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#373 Postby chrisjslucia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:37 am

ColinDelia wrote:These were the 0z GFS ensembles

Image


So, the Eastern Caribbean has sunk completely in this model? Nothing left from Puerto Rico to S. American coast! No longer lesser Antilles, now lost Antilles...
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#374 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:37 am

IMO too early tell. 5 day NHC only takes Gaston to 55W.
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#375 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:41 am

Models seem pretty keen to lift it towards a weakness near 60W...where have we seen that happen before recently...

Pattern is still trough dominated and thus there is always going to be a large chance that eventually one upper trough is going to swing by and catch it...

Equally though it looks to me like some models are way too slow with the motion so the NE Caribbean threat is still high IMO....also way too early in general to tell!
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#376 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:17 am

6z GFS. 72 hours
Image

114 hours. Straight west
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#377 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:25 am

Yeah moving due west and moving a good deal quicker then the other models as well...which probably is more realistic given its a seperate feature now from the ITCZ and besides it handled Fiona's rapid speed well so no reason not to believe the GFS now.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#378 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:31 am

132 hours
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138 hours
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144 hours. Into Caribbean
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#379 Postby ColinDelia » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:39 am

174 hours

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#380 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:49 am

I'll wait till it gets to the mid atlantic 50e to decide if Gaston will get trapped under the continental ridge. Your flipping coins on a Caribbean track at this point.
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