WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[supercane]

WTPQ22 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 39.1N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 42.5N 137.5E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

JTWC 03Z advisory forecast map:


TXPN22 KNES 020312
SIMWIR
A. 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 02/0232Z
C. 39.1N
D. 128.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...KOMPASU IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL CONVECTION
THOUGH SHALLOW IS STILL ORGANIZED IN MORE OF A CIRCULAR SHAPE SHEARED
ABOUT 1.25 DEGREES FROM ESTIMATED LLC FOR DT OF 2.0. MET IS 4.0. SO PT
IS 3.5. FT BASED ON RW. CI HELD AT 4.0 PER WEAKENING RULES.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
01/2046Z 37.3N 126.3E AMSU
01/2212Z 38.1N 126.8E SSMIS

...GALLINA

[supercane]

FYI, peak winds (10-min avg) at Seoul were 47 kt around 2030Z. Using typical 12% conversion gives 1-min wind gust to ~53kt.
RKSI 012030Z 06028G47KT 040V100 2000 RA BR SCT006 BKN020 OVC060 23/23 Q0991 WS ALL RWY BECMG 3200 -RA

[supercane]

WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
25 NM NORTH OF SEOUL, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
TY 08W IS UNDER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50 KNOTS) AND
IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER ROUGH TERRAIN. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON KMA RADAR
DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASON.
B. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS TRACKING UNDER
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY-
CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24 AND
BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.//

[Chacor]

I don't think I've ever seen the JMA weaken a transitioning storm so quickly; if anything the JMA likes to hang onto them as TCs until they've completed transition. Down to 40 knots from JMA.

[supercane]

Agree Chacor. 06Z advisory:

WTPQ22 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 39.3N 129.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 41.4N 137.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Comapred to KNES Dvorak:
TPPN12 PGTW 020626
A. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 02/0532Z
C. 39.2N
D. 129.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. XT3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W1.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH FORWARD MOTION
OF 7KTS WRAPS .10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING XT3.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

[Chacor]

Continues to weaken, 35 knots.

WTPQ22 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 39.8N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 41.5N 139.3E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

JTWC is down to 50 knots.

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 019
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 08W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 39.2N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.2N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 41.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 41.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 41.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 39.7N 130.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED FROM TYPHOON TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS AND IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IN THE
SEA OF JAPAN. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HIGHLY SHEARED AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THE
STORM WILL COMPLETE ETT IN THE SEA OF JAPAN PRIOR TO PASSING NORTH OF
MISAWA. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUPPORTS A
TRANSITIONING 50 KNOT CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

Some news sources are reporting Kompasu as the strongest typhoon to have affected South Korea in 15 years.

[Chacor]

BBC News

Typhoon Kompasu has struck the South Korean capital, downing power lines and causing transport chaos.

At least three people were killed and dozens more injured in the storm - the strongest to hit Seoul in 15 years.

More than 120 flights were cancelled and power cuts hit major parts of the subway network.

Typhoon Kompasu made landfall in South Korea early on Thursday at Ganghwa Island, before passing to the north-east of Seoul.

One man was killed after being hit by a flying roof tile and another died after a tree branch fell and hit him.

A man in his 70s was electrocuted, the National Emergency Management Agency said.

Utility poles and trees were knocked down in the capital and hospitals were full of people injured after being hit by flying glass, Yonhap news agency said.

On Wednesday state media in North Korea broadcast a typhoon warning, telling people to prepare for heavy rain.

[supercane]

WTPQ22 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 40.0N 132.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 41.5N 140.8E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 40.3N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.3N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 41.7N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 41.7N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 40.7N 133.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 12.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS
15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN






TXPN22 KNES 020907
SIMWIR
A. 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 02/0832Z
C. 39.6N
D. 131.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. EXTRATROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS MORE OF BAROCLINC SHIELD AND
LLC HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED WITH DECENT ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
ENE...ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTRATROPICAL CLASSIFICATION ATTM. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL BULLETIN.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=

[supercane]

JMA downgrades to TD:

WTPQ22 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 41N 135E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1008HPA =

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 41N 137E EAST 15 KT.

[supercane]

And that's a wrap.
12Z JMA analysis:
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 41N 145E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.

[toto]

Some news sources are reporting Kompasu as the strongest typhoon to have affected South Korea in 15 years.

Russia's Pacific Fleet Navy base was in/near the cone...
but didn't see any news of special preparation.


.