ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Dydion]

Of that 1908 hurricane #8 graphic, how in the world would they know, back in 1908, if a hurricane made a small loop like that out in the open ocean??

[Texashawk]

Of that 1908 hurricane #8 graphic, how in the world would they know, back in 1908, if a hurricane made a small loop like that out in the open ocean??

Ha. That's just what I was thinking....

[Cyclenall]

This one looks dangerous. It could impact so many area from the Leewards, Puerto Rico, the island of Hispaniola, Florida, than up the east coast. The ultimate destructive track.

A bit early for the ultimate destination. What is the "ultimate destructive track?"

That would be the most destructive track and like many have said, this would be a David type of track.

I was thinking more along the lines of Hurricane Donna, that track was covering many areas and remains one of the most amazing in my opinion.

[bob rulz]

Of that 1908 hurricane #8 graphic, how in the world would they know, back in 1908, if a hurricane made a small loop like that out in the open ocean??

They probably had enough ship reports by that time to make at least educated guesses of where the center was at regular times.

Still pretty amusing though.

[ColinDelia]

6z SHIPS reaches 90 knots at the end of 5 days.
LGEM, the most accurate intensity model the past 2 years, reaches 110 knots.

That would be around 55W

[Brent]

[dexterlabio]

The threat continues with Gaston. What are the present model tracks available for Gaston?

[bob rulz]

BY 48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED.

Not looking good for the islands right now.

[dexterlabio]

BY 48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED.

Not looking good for the islands right now.

So a slight chance for a recurve? That's something.

[apocalypt-flyer]

BY 48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED.

Not looking good for the islands right now.

So a slight chance for a recurve? That's something.

No, not really as far as I understand it. It's likely to head right towards the Leewards.

Edit: A couple of models actually do recurve it long range but there's a big chance Gaston will make landfall somewhere (US or not), especially if it moves faster than predicted.

[dwsqos2]

Gaston is hideous this morning.

[KWT]

I think this one has a huge risk to the Islands down the line, the models seem to be trying to gain some latitude but like Earl I think they maybe a little slow and overly keen for that to occur.

Down the line and we are still in a trough pattern...however this is a very slow moving system for where it is and unlike the other 2 systems out there this one will be free of other TC's inducing some weaknesses...in other words its down solely to synoptics.

I'm not sure why but I just feel a little uneasy about this one, probably going to be our next major hurricane and probably before the Islands...

[abajan]

Judging from the latest satellite imagery, the possibility exists for it to weaken to a TD or even just a TW for a while and then re-intensify as conditions become more conducive for development further west. That sort of thing is not unheard of. The problem with that scenario is it would increase the risk to the Lesser Antilles because weaker systems tend not to have much of a northerly component to their tracks.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

Yeah thats a possible risk abajan, it does look weaker this morning and looks rather light-weight in terms of convection, not all that surprising given the amount of more stable air there is to the north of this system still....indeed the system may well be taking in some of that drier air from the looks of things with the stable clouds plunging to the west of the system.

Either way though this will probably be a long tracked system that needs watching the whole way...Earl struggled somewhat out that far east and yet look at it now.

[OURAGAN]

Islanders watch out about this one:

[img]http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201009_model.html#a_topad[/img]

[OURAGAN]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[AussieMark]

is Gaston being effected by SAL?

[KWT]

Possibly Aussiemark, there does seem to be some sort of stable air nearby though looking at the Sat.imagery at the moment.

The Islands really do need to watch this thats for sure, even if it takes longer to strengthen then expected...

Also expect Gaston to still be about in 10-12 days time as well so this is going to be one very long lived system I suspect.

[AussieMark]

some have said 1998 is similar to this season just hope we don't get a Georges type storm out of this.

[ColinDelia]

Here is the SAL and Water Vapor.