ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Weak showers heading into the Outer Banks now and a larger band of convection heading closer and closer to North Carolina...conditons are quickly going to go downhill this morning there.

[xironman]

Looks like it is going to pass just east of the 30N/75W benchmark...

can you remind us if that is a good or bad thing for OBX

DT and a couple of other mets said west of the benchmark Hatteras was in play, east then the effects would be minimal. It is almost spot on though so I call it a toss up.

[dixiebreeze]

Earl is a monster, but consider Hurricane Gilbert at 888 mb and in 2005 there was Wilma at 832 mb.

[Hurricane Andrew]

832?????

Wasn't it 872?

[WmE]

882 mb it was.

edit: Typhoon Tip as the strongest TC ever had 870mb.

[ravyrn]

832?????

Wasn't it 872?

Wilma's lowest pressure was 882.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Oh. Thanks WmE and Rayvern.

[dixiebreeze]

882 is correct, excuse the typo

[edgeblade]

Earl is a monster, but consider Hurricane Gilbert at 888 mb and in 2005 there was Wilma at 832 mb.

Think you mean 882 for Wilma. :-p 832 would be insane, as Typhoon Tip @ 870 was the strongest ever in terms of pressure, if I recall correctly.

[Maritimer71]

Latest from CHC

WOCN31 CWHX 021200
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.04 AM ADT THURSDAY
02 SEPTEMBER 2010.

..MAJOR HURRICANE EARL MOVING TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS..WILL AFFECT
THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY..

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 N
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS... 230 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 938 MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 02 9.00 AM 30.1N 74.8W 928 125 230
SEP 02 9.00 PM 33.2N 74.9W 935 120 222
SEP 03 9.00 AM 36.6N 73.3W 950 110 204
SEP 03 9.00 PM 40.5N 69.8W 964 90 167
SEP 04 9.00 AM 44.9N 65.5W 974 75 139 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04 9.00 PM 49.4N 62.0W 980 65 120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05 9.00 AM 54.2N 58.8W 981 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05 9.00 PM 58.5N 55.5W 980 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06 9.00 AM 62.5N 51.8W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NHC IN MIAMI TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WERE
POSTED FOR YARMOUTH.. SHELBURNE.. AND QUEENS COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLIER THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THESE WATCHES.. INCLUDING
HURRICANE WATCHES.. WILL BE EXTENDED TO OTHER REGIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA..NEW BRUNSWICK.. AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND LATER TODAY.

LANDFALL OF EARL MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
DETAILS OF THE PUBLIC IMPACTS WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEED
INFORMATION WILL APPEAR IN OUR NEXT BULLETIN AT 3.00 PM.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD CERTAINLY PAY CLOSE ATTENTION REGARDING WEEKEND
PLANS THAT MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS.
IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST DECISIONS AND RATIONALE. THESE ARE ISSUED FOUR
TIMES DAILY.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BROWNS BANK AND GEORGES BANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF EARL FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY
THAT THESE GALES WILL BE EXPANDED TO OTHER MARINE AREAS
AND THAT STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC CANADIAN MARINE DISTRICT.
THESE WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED WITH 3.00 AM FRIDAY MORNING MARINE
FORECAST.

OCEAN SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST TODAY WELL
AHEAD OF EARL.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE COASTLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH WATER LEVELS AT THE COAST COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE ARRIVAL
OF EARL IS TIMED WITH HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING
WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARL'S ARRIVAL.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EARL WITH DISTINCT EYE AND CLASSIC OUTFLOW
PATTERN. THE MOTION CONTINUES WITH ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT WAS
NOTED THAT BOUY 41047 REPORTED 9.6 METRE SEAS 100 NAUTICAL MILES
DUE EAST OF EARL.

B. PROGNOSTIC

EARL IS ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HENCE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREAFTER IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AS IT WEAKENS. GIVEN THE HIGH POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE MARITIMES EARL MAY CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO OUR REGION. AS
POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES.. WATER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ARE ABOVE NORMAL BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY
WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF AUGUST. THIS FACTOR WILL PLAY INTO
OUR FORECAST OF INTENSITY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THOSE WATERS.
ALSO EARL WILL BE MOVING INTO A PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS AS IS
BEING EXPERIENCED OVER EASTERN CANADA RECENTLY. THAT COULD PERMIT
EARL TO RETAIN MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION.

ULTIMATELY.. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA AND STEADILY DRAIN EARL OF ITS ENERGY AS EARL BECOMES
GRADUALLY INCORPORATED INTO THIS FEATURE. FRICTIONAL DEGRADATION IS
ANOTHER FACTOR WHICH WILL WEAKEN EARL.

A MULTITUDE OF NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE ON EARL'S FORECAST TRACK TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. AS A
RESULT.. OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT EARL WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER.. OUR EXPERIENCE
SHOWS THAT WE MUST CAUTIOUS AT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH OUR ENVELOPE
OF POSSIBILIIES ON EARL'S TRACK IS NARROWING.. EARL COULD END
UP AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK OR AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK MAP POSTED ON OUR WEBSITES.. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC IN
TERMS OF A LINE MARKED WITH STORM POSITIONS AT SPECIFIC TIMES AND
SHOWING EARL AS A LANDFALLING CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE..SIMPLY
REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE OF MANY FACTORS.

PROBABILISTIC COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT A 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS (60 TO 70 KM/H) OVER LAND IN
NOVA SCOTIA. OUR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT AN 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARL ENTERING CANADIAN FORECAST WATERS AS A HURRICANE..AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LAND FALLING HURRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA
OR NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARL BEING
AT HURRICANE STATUS AFTER CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA INTO PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND LANDFALL TIME COULD BE AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING..TO SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.



C. PUBLIC WEATHER

ASYMMETRIES IN THE WIND AND RAIN FIELDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD
THE FRONT AND LEFT SIDE OF THE STORM AND HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND
WHEN CONSIDERING THE TRACK FORECAST RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION.
HIGHEST RAINFALLS WITH STORMS LIKE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE LEFT
(WEST) OF THE STORM TRACK. LATER TODAY WE WILL INTRODUCE ESTIMATES OF
WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL IN A TRACK-RELATIVE SENSE..THEN ESTABLISH
GEOGRAPHICALLY-SPECIFIC DETAILS GOING INTO FRIDAY. REGARDING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL..FOR A STORM OF THIS NATURE..2500 DIVIDED BY
TWICE THE STORM SPEED IN KNOTS IS A RULE OF THUMB FOR RAINFALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CORE. THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES TO 40 TO 70 MM
POTENTIAL.


D. MARINE WEATHER

SEE ABOVE FOR DISCUSSION ON MARINE WARNINGS.

THE DETAILS ABOUT WAVE HEIGHTS AND STORM SURGE ARRIVING AT ATLANTIC
CANADIAN COASTLINES WILL BE WORKED OUT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY
POUNDING SURF IS VERY LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES COASTLINES
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING SATURDAY. WAVE ACTION WILL
LIKELY BUILD OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAPPED FETCH RESULTING IN HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS
APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA IS A POSSIBILITY AND WILL BE ASSESSED IN
MORE DETAIL AS THE TRACK AND SPEED OF EARL GET ARE FINE TUNED.

ALSO OF NOTE, THE RANGE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE IS OF RELATIVELY LOW...
NEAP TIDES. THEREFORE THE EFFECT OF STORM SURGE MAY NOT BE
AS SEVERE AS IT WOULD BE WITH A LARGER TIDAL RANGE AND LIKELY WILL
ONLY BE OF CONCERN WHERE THE PEAK SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE LOCAL
HIGH TIDE.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
02/12Z 200 180 120 180 120 120 90 100 80 70 40 55
03/00Z 200 185 125 170 120 120 90 95 80 70 40 50
03/12Z 200 195 135 145 120 120 90 80 70 65 35 45
04/00Z 205 205 140 130 120 120 80 65 50 45 20 30
04/12Z 215 220 135 125 120 120 55 60 20 25 10 10
05/00Z 230 235 135 135 120 120 40 60 5 10 5 0
05/12Z 240 250 145 175 95 95 40 45 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 240 280 155 210 35 35 20 15 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 240 320 165 230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/BORGEL/CAMPBELL

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like Earl is winning:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

But how much will it matter? IMO, it seems like Earl is moving just north now, with maybe only a hint of a west component:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Meso]

Definitely, Earl is a fighter for sure. He's constantly pushed the dry air back without really taking it in and seems to be recovering again now on satellite presentation from the little hiccup in appearance earlier.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[apocalypt-flyer]

Now if this shot straight NW, you wouldn't see the Carolinas on that map anymore in 36h. Scary stuff.

[plasticup]

I was looking over data from buoy 41046 this morning (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046) and by now I'm sure you've all see that Earl passed right over it:



But I didn't notice that his eye passed over the buoy! You can see the winds drop off sharply, then return at full force from the opposite direction:





But what I thought was REALLY awesome was the water temperature. Functioning as a heat engine, Earl cooled the waters by 5 degrees. Now, some of that will be churning up the cooler deep waters, but in part it is a manifestation of Earl using the oceanic heat content to do its physical work.

[rosethornil]

I realize this is a selfish question, but when can us folks in Southeastern Virginia breathe a collective sigh of relief? And won't this thing weaken as it moves up the coast? In other words, when (and if) it hits New England, won't it be down to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm?

[dixiebreeze]

02/1145 UTC 30.1N 74.7W T5.5/6.0 EARL -- Atlantic

[apocalypt-flyer]

I realize this is a selfish question, but when can us folks in Southeastern Virginia breathe a collective sigh of relief? And won't this thing weaken as it moves up the coast? In other words, when (and if) it hits New England, won't it be down to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm?

I certainly wouldn't breathe a sigh of relief if I were under Tropical Storm warning and Hurricane watch. Earl's forecast to weaken as he moves up the coast but even though he's not forecast to hit your area directly, it only takes a small deviation to the left. So, I'd rather be safe than sorry and not take this too lightly.

[tracyswfla]

I realize this is a selfish question, but when can us folks in Southeastern Virginia breathe a collective sigh of relief? And won't this thing weaken as it moves up the coast? In other words, when (and if) it hits New England, won't it be down to a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm?

A Cat 1 or Cat 2 Hurricane is nothing to take for granted!

[HURAKAN]

appearing in the radar