ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[gotoman38]

Will there be an Earl Inlet?

Hurricane Isabel passed over Hatteras Island between Hatteras Village and Buxton on Sept 18 2003 (at 105mph) and created "Isabel Inlet" - a cut 2000 feet wide that isolated part of the island. It took two months to repair.

Here's the Wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabel_Inlet

[SunnyThoughts]

I wasn't expecting him to look this good when I got up this am, after that NW quad was experiencing erosion early this am. Hopefully he stays off the coast... stay safe east coasters, Earl is relentless in fighting off any weakening trends so far.

[artist]

JUST BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT IN THE CONE MEANS NOTHING>
one thing I would like to mention is the hurricane cone forom the NHC, as you will, is simply for the center of the storm and where they think it might go. It does not account for the fact that hurricane winds are 90 miles out from that center:

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

Please, remember, the cone is nothing but of the center of the storm and where that center could wobble, according to the NHC's usual forecast errors for that given time in a hurricane forecast. So what you are seeing does not tell you where the 90 mile radii of hurricane force winds are expected and can reach or where the tropical storm force winds that begin out past the 90 miles of hurricane force winds, will reach. Therefore from the center of the storm out on all sides ts force winds extend 140 miles each way from the hurricane force winds. The tropical storm force winds will be lower the further from the center. Another point, within the hurricane there will always be points that could have higher winds or lower winds than within these radii. Just because it is lower when it hits you, doesn't mean the back side might not be higher, and vice versa. Many times there will be mini vortices within the storm where you could see extreme winds, even more than what is forecast, as well as there will be areas that at times may see much lower winds. Always remember that it is saying 90 miles from the center to all sides from the center- not across the center, so in other words the center 90 miles out to the north, south, east and west. And remember, that 180 miles of hurricane force winds exist across the storm. There will be areas as I stated above that may see some higher and some lower winds within these areas, as this is just a general rule of how far they go out. Just because you are not in the cone has nothing to do with whether you will receive hurricane force winds or tropical storm force winds. Total tropical storm and hurricane force winds stretch across the storm for an approximate total of 460 miles. Fortunately the storm is not forecast to go completely on shore. Tradidtionally the ne side of a storm is the worst, but sometimes that is not always true. Also, for those that have never been in a storm, remember if you are forecast to be near the center and the winds suddenly cease, this could be the eye and the other side of the storm will be there shortly. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I know I probably repeated myself above but just want everyone to be aware of these facts that are not readily known.

Here is a wonderful tool put out by stormcarib.com so that if you know approximately what your logitude/latitiude is, you can find out how far away the center will be from your location with each forecast-
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

[Annie Oakley]

Amateur questions: What kind of damage would we see if Earl does come in as a Cat 3 into the Outer Banks? If Earl goes more West than predicted, and makes a hard landfall in NC, would it change the projected path?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws.shtml
Category Three Hurricane (Sustained winds 111-130 mph, 96-113 kt, or 178-209 km/hr).


Devastating damage will occur

There is a high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Most commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Hurricane Ivan (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 3 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Gulf Shores, Alabama with Category 2 conditions experienced elsewhere in this city.

[KatDaddy]

Everyone along the East Coast from NC to New England be safe and heed evacuations and warnings. Earl is a powerhouse storm.

[BrianD]

Too many people in southeast va hampton roads area are too relaxed with this and many havn't made any preperations whatsoever.

[xironman]

The way his cloud deck is expanding west he might have one more good wobble in him. Hatteras is at 75.5 I think.

[PTPatrick]

Looking like is about the size Katrina was when she struck. If memory serves the hurricane force winds extended out about 100 miles to the east. Regardless of weather this "makes landfall" most of the NC coast as well as Mass, are going to get some nasty weather. It is fortunate however that nobody appears to get the RFQ of this thing until Nova Scotia. I would suspect there will be a nasty surge up there but I have no idea as I havent studied east coast storm surges. I know angle of approach here is in the US coasts favor more than the way it will hit Canada from almost 90 degrees south. If it did actually come over the RI or the cape, which at this point it does not appear it will, there surge could be devastating. As far as extent of winds, West side shouldnt be awful, but I would suspect there will be some frontal interaction that could speed up winds on the West side more than normal. In Katrina I was exactly 90 miles from where the center hit and I can tell you, I lost a window, shingles and most of the oaks in my neighborhood were heavily damaged. Also lost multiple pines in my hood, one fell on a house and demolished it. no power for 2 weeks. So in short, take heed folks. Bein on the west side of this isnt going to be a picnic, especially the way it is continuing to hold strength.

[pimentel2]

Talk about a tilt on that cold front I think a negative tilt at this point might of been better.It looks like it's giving Earl room to keep going W some.If he makes 75.5>76 watch out OB

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

Yeah...I'm worried about that. If it goes a bit more west I'd expect the projection to change just a bit...that's just pure speculation though.

[bmoreorless]

My family is on vacation in OBX right now - I just called them to tell them to leave, and they told me an evacuation order for Currituck County had just been issued.

[Maritimer71]

The concern around here in the Maritimes is that if this storm does track through the Bay of Fundy - High Tide is early morning on Saturday...

Those tides normally are huge anyways in that area, I'm afraid to think of what would happen if a hurricane pushed those tides beyond the limits.. I'm no expert, but I can't see it being a good scenario at all...

[anarchiver19]

Too many people in southeast va hampton roads area are too relaxed with this and many havn't made any preperations whatsoever.

I think it's because all of our local stations have been telling us that this is going to be no big deal for us. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the local morning news programming (on all 3 major network stations) said the worst we would get is some gusty wind, some rain (at the coast) and of course dangerous waves. But I wholly agree that they are treating this like no big deal in Virginia.

[NCFlorida_Dad]

Hi,

Newbie question for you....

From what I have read, the cold front shown in some graphics recently posted (Javlin's post) was the main factor preventing Earl from continuing on more of a westerly course. Looking at the graphic, I see the very blue area (the front?), but it seems well away from Earl. Is there a part I am not seeing that is affecting Earl, and possibly making Earl turn towards the North?

[hurricaneCW]

For the sake of many people being affected by this storm, especially those under hurricane watches and warnings, I do hope they are taking the proper precautions. I'm sure a lot of people are ignoring the watches and warnings because they look at the track and see that the center is forecast to be offshore.

The public tends to look at a hurricane as one point when we all know that it goes well beyond the center and in this case, over 200 miles beyond the center. Also, if for any reason the storm goes further west than expected, than a lot of people could be caught off guard and potentially be in life threatening danger. Storms like this are very difficult to pinpoint and nobody within or right near the cone should ignore the threat.

[x-y-no]

My family is on vacation in OBX right now - I just called them to tell them to leave, and they told me an evacuation order for Currituck County had just been issued.

Glad to hear it's finally been ordered. Hopefully people act quickly on it, since rain bands will be coming in by this afternoon.

[anarchiver19]

Are the cloud "bands" (don't know if that's the right terminology) that I'm seeing coming from the southeast on the SE Va coast the beginning of Earl?

[pimentel2]

For the sake of many people being affected by this storm, especially those under hurricane watches and warnings, I do hope they are taking the proper precautions. I'm sure a lot of people are ignoring the watches and warnings because they look at the track and see that the center is forecast to be offshore.

The public tends to look at a hurricane as one point when we all know that it goes well beyond the center and in this case, over 200 miles beyond the center. Also, if for any reason the storm goes further west than expected, than a lot of people could be caught off guard and potentially be in life threatening danger. Storms like this are very difficult to pinpoint and nobody within or right near the cone should ignore the threat.

Your right. I bought flashlights just in case power goes out...and putting things indoors....and yet, people think we're overreacting. Better to be safe than in harm. I'd also like to point out this storm is not going directly North....its still has a western component according to The Weather Channel, well I could be wrong...so don't take anything I say seriously

[hurricaneCW]

Does anyone know when the next recon flight will fly towards Earl?

[Sanibel]

Earl is slightly right of trop points and easing into a turn right near the 75* Longitude. Should keep him offshore. The front is slowing and developing a slight bend.


Nantucket should be the place to be if you want to storm chase this one.

[HurrMark]

Earl is slightly right of trop points and easing into a turn right near the 75* Longitude. Should keep him offshore. The front is slowing and developing a slight bend.

Yeah...a bit east of forecast track. Great news for NC...and possibly very good news down the road assuming it turns as projected. Not trying to say all is clear, but things look somewhat less ominous now than they did 12-18 hours ago.