ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Buck]

Are the cloud "bands" (don't know if that's the right terminology) that I'm seeing coming from the southeast on the SE Va coast the beginning of Earl?

Yes, that is the beginning. Eerie, no?

[Sanibel]

I wonder if Fiona provided just enough of a tiny attraction to pull Earl a few miles east?

[Stephanie]

Too many people in southeast va hampton roads area are too relaxed with this and many havn't made any preperations whatsoever.

I think it's because all of our local stations have been telling us that this is going to be no big deal for us. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the local morning news programming (on all 3 major network stations) said the worst we would get is some gusty wind, some rain (at the coast) and of course dangerous waves. But I wholly agree that they are treating this like no big deal in Virginia.

That is SO totally irresponsible, especially when they are in a HURRICANE WARNING!!

[hurricaneCW]

Earl is slightly right of trop points and easing into a turn right near the 75* Longitude. Should keep him offshore. The front is slowing and developing a slight bend.

Yeah...a bit east of forecast track. Great news for NC...and possibly very good news down the road assuming it turns as projected. Not trying to say all is clear, but things look somewhat less ominous now than they did 12-18 hours ago.

All it would have to do is make a slight wobble further west and Earl would be right on track. He's at about 74.9/75W but hopefully he'll stay to the east just a tad, enough to spare the coast.

[anarchiver19]

Are the cloud "bands" (don't know if that's the right terminology) that I'm seeing coming from the southeast on the SE Va coast the beginning of Earl?

Yes, that is the beginning. Eerie, no?

It's very eerie...I hope to get some pictures a little later at lunctime

[Stephanie]

Are the cloud "bands" (don't know if that's the right terminology) that I'm seeing coming from the southeast on the SE Va coast the beginning of Earl?

Yes, that is the beginning. Eerie, no?

I had noticed some high cirrus clouds to the south here in Atlantic City coming in to work this morning. I know that the satellite radar on the local networks showed a little strip from Earl reaching up to us.

Yes, VERY eerie. I know what it's from, most people don't.

[Javlin]

Earl is slightly right of trop points and easing into a turn right near the 75* Longitude. Should keep him offshore. The front is slowing and developing a slight bend.


Nantucket should be the place to be if you want to storm chase this one.

Looks like it is slowing but plenty of energy up in the Canadian border region(causing bend) but seriously .7clicks X 6miles=42 miles W and the OB come into play not much room for error.The fact Earl is moving 18mph the turn will be gradual to the N then NNE.Now look at the cloud pattern of Earl it's starting to look NW I have seen it in the past as a short term visible track of direction.I am not saying NW but he still has some W component left in him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[funster]

It looks like the western eyewall is touching 75 west.

[ncocean]

For the sake of many people being affected by this storm, especially those under hurricane watches and warnings, I do hope they are taking the proper precautions. I'm sure a lot of people are ignoring the watches and warnings because they look at the track and see that the center is forecast to be offshore.

The public tends to look at a hurricane as one point when we all know that it goes well beyond the center and in this case, over 200 miles beyond the center. Also, if for any reason the storm goes further west than expected, than a lot of people could be caught off guard and potentially be in life threatening danger. Storms like this are very difficult to pinpoint and nobody within or right near the cone should ignore the threat.

I agree this is from a meterologist on another forum:

I have a feeling this may be stronger than 85kts when it reaches Cape Cod, not much stronger but somewhat....an 85kt hurricane will do much more damage in a place like New England than it would in the tropics, largely due to the fact there are more trees but also trees that cannot withstand 95-100mph winds...palm trees can survive that sort of event by only losing their tops....generally you won't see much structural damage directly from 95-100mph winds but will see plenty indirectly via trees/lines falling on structures.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well up here, the media is still only talking about Nova Svotia this morning. The media in neighbouring Maine has given me far more info about the possible impacts than the local Maritime & Canadian National media. Who are all only concerned still with Nova Scotia, and seem to be under the impression that it is still forecast to make landfall there, grrrrrrr. Maybe they just don't have the new info, who knows?

[ncweatherwizard]

Too many people in southeast va hampton roads area are too relaxed with this and many havn't made any preperations whatsoever.

I think it's because all of our local stations have been telling us that this is going to be no big deal for us. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the local morning news programming (on all 3 major network stations) said the worst we would get is some gusty wind, some rain (at the coast) and of course dangerous waves. But I wholly agree that they are treating this like no big deal in Virginia.

That is SO totally irresponsible, especially when they are in a HURRICANE WARNING!!

Not southeastern VA. I tend to agree with this approach. There was never any indication that southeastern Virginia would get hurricane force winds, so why raise undue alarm? If there were more uncertainty with the forecast, they would have jumped all over this.

Somebody mentioned something about an evacuation for Currituck. If people along the NC Coast will just stay indoors and not venture into the water, I imagine they will be fine. Not surprised if they ordered an evacuation, but I doubt many people will leave.

[ncweatherwizard]

Hi,

Newbie question for you....

From what I have read, the cold front shown in some graphics recently posted (Javlin's post) was the main factor preventing Earl from continuing on more of a westerly course. Looking at the graphic, I see the very blue area (the front?), but it seems well away from Earl. Is there a part I am not seeing that is affecting Earl, and possibly making Earl turn towards the North?

The high pressure that is steering Earl can't extend any farther west because of a trough that is developing over the north-central US. I've attached a picture from UW-CIMSS to try to give an idea of this:


This is a satellite-derived product from the Univ. of Wisconsin that shows approximately what the steering flow is through a deep layer in the atmosphere. As the trough over the central US moves eastward, it will force the ridge to allow Earl to round the northwestern side of it without landfalling in NC. It's not really the front that is steering Earl because a front is a surface feature, and Earl extends much higher in the atmosphere. So you need to look at middle and upper level features.

[SunnyThoughts]

I heard a couple of hurricane experts on tv earlier talking about Earl and how he could possibly weaken a little, but expand into a larger hurricane. That may be happening now, no longer just an eye with a ring around it...NW portion seems to have expanded a bit.

[Squarethecircle]

"Outer eyewall" feature looks very distinct.

Northwestern eyewall erosion

[Evenstar]

"There was never any indication that southeastern Virginia would get hurricane force winds, so why raise undue alarm? If there were more uncertainty with the forecast, they would have jumped all over this."

What I don't understand is why NOAA is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain in Hampton Roads tomorrow. I am a transplanted Californian in VA and thought even a tropical storm would bring lots of rain, let alone a hurricane. What's up with that?

[TropicalWXMA]

567
WTNT32 KNHC 021456
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WESTPORT EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Buck]

Dry air invasion!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

For those interested:

http://www.co.dare.nc.us/webcam/hattvillage.php

http://www.co.dare.nc.us/webcam/oregoninlet.asp
(use user name "viewer" and password "viewer" if get boxed out)

[ncweatherwizard]

"There was never any indication that southeastern Virginia would get hurricane force winds, so why raise undue alarm? If there were more uncertainty with the forecast, they would have jumped all over this."

What I don't understand is why NOAA is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain in Hampton Roads tomorrow. I am a transplanted Californian in VA and thought even a tropical storm would bring lots of rain, let alone a hurricane. What's up with that?

Interesting point. 30% POP for most of your area, with 40% given to Virginia Beach. If I were at the Wakefield office, I don't know what I'd assign right now (Probability of precipitation can be interpreted or misinterpreted by the public in many ways). But I can tell you that it's not 100% because southeastern VA will be a distance away from the center. Right now, the closest approach to VA Beach is 100 to 120 nautical miles, and tropical storm force winds only are forecasted to extend 180nm from the center to the northwest. Far from the center, one doesn't get those winds in a solid shield of rain, but rather in rainbands. Some areas farther inland will get windy because of the pressure gradient but get very little rain. POP will probably go up later today, since WFOs tend to keep it on the low side unless models guarantee them widespread precipitation.

[Pearl River]

Evenstar

What I don't understand is why NOAA is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain in Hampton Roads tomorrow. I am a transplanted Californian in VA and thought even a tropical storm would bring lots of rain, let alone a hurricane. What's up with that?

Warning issued are actually coastal warnings. I believe it's up to the local NWS office to issue Inland wind warnings if applicable. The reason they are only calling for 30% chance is because you will be on the western side of the hurricane, which is normally the weaker side. Due to the circulation around the hurricane, on the west side, there is compressional heating and it's usually drier. That is why they predicted a high of 97 degrees aand the 30% chance of rain. Having said that, just a small shift of 70 miles to the west would place you in hurricane conditions.