ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[artist]

Earl is slightly right of trop points and easing into a turn right near the 75* Longitude. Should keep him offshore. The front is slowing and developing a slight bend.


Nantucket should be the place to be if you want to storm chase this one.

Looks like it is slowing but plenty of energy up in the Canadian border region(causing bend) but seriously .7clicks X 6miles=42 miles W and the OB come into play not much room for error.The fact Earl is moving 18mph the turn will be gradual to the N then NNE.Now look at the cloud pattern of Earl it's starting to look NW I have seen it in the past as a short term visible track of direction.I am not saying NW but he still has some W component left in him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

as well as the fact that the hurricane winds go out for 90 miles, thus they will receive those regardless.

[ncfarmer]

nc weatherwizard I agree with your statement on SE VA but to advise ANYONE on the NC coast to just stay inside and you "imagine" they will be fine seems very irresponsible. If Emergency Management asks you to evacuate then by all means please do so. Please listen to the advice of the NHC and your local Emergency Management offices. In natural disaters like this it is very hard for rescuers to get to you if something were to go wrong. Everyone PLEASE be safe in this storm.

[Recurve]

"There was never any indication that southeastern Virginia would get hurricane force winds, so why raise undue alarm? If there were more uncertainty with the forecast, they would have jumped all over this."

What I don't understand is why NOAA is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain in Hampton Roads tomorrow. I am a transplanted Californian in VA and thought even a tropical storm would bring lots of rain, let alone a hurricane. What's up with that?

Tropical storms can actually bring MUCH more rain than hurricanes, strangely enough. A slow moving tropical storm can dump feet of rain, while a fast-moving hurricane may bring very little. Not saying anything about this specific storm, but in SFla we seem to get the most rain from tropical waves or depressions. The less developed they are the more you have drenching, slow-moving rains. In general -- each storm is different.

[xironman]

Looks like it reach 75

Code: Select all

Time:   14:55:30Z
Coordinates:   30.8833N 75.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press:   696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:   2,642 meters (~ 8,668 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:   940.6 mb (~ 27.78 inHg)
D-value:   -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):   From 59° at 8 knots (From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp:   17.9°C (~ 64.2°F)
Dew Pt:   10.0°C (~ 50.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   11 knots (~ 12.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:   2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

[TheBurn]

[hurricaneCW]

Definitely an EWRC beginning. That could explain the more ragged western side, usually during these cycles, some dry air gets entrained. The wind field will expand after the cycle is complete and the strength should at least hold at a Cat 3. The gulf stream interaction will also be something to keep in mind of. Also, Earl is apparently now west of 75W based on recon.

[CronkPSU]

northwest quad is taking a beating, hopefully good news for North Carolina...and hopefully a sign of overall weakening the rest of the way

[SeaBrz_FL]

Check out the waves in Cape Canaveral on this webcam: http://www.twopalms.com/

And Earl never got closer than 350~400 miles to us. He is approx 390 miles ENE now. Best waves should be around 2:45 ET (high tide). News helicopters are all over the area.

[lothianjavert]

"There was never any indication that southeastern Virginia would get hurricane force winds, so why raise undue alarm? If there were more uncertainty with the forecast, they would have jumped all over this."

What I don't understand is why NOAA is forecasting only a 30% chance of rain in Hampton Roads tomorrow. I am a transplanted Californian in VA and thought even a tropical storm would bring lots of rain, let alone a hurricane. What's up with that?

Interesting point. 30% POP for most of your area, with 40% given to Virginia Beach. If I were at the Wakefield office, I don't know what I'd assign right now (Probability of precipitation can be interpreted or misinterpreted by the public in many ways). But I can tell you that it's not 100% because southeastern VA will be a distance away from the center. Right now, the closest approach to VA Beach is 100 to 120 nautical miles, and tropical storm force winds only are forecasted to extend 180nm from the center to the northwest. Far from the center, one doesn't get those winds in a solid shield of rain, but rather in rainbands. Some areas farther inland will get windy because of the pressure gradient but get very little rain. POP will probably go up later today, since WFOs tend to keep it on the low side unless models guarantee them widespread precipitation.

Thank you for the explanation! I had been wondering the same thing as Evenstar as our forecast is similar to his.

[rockyman]

75W is stubborn:

[ncweatherwizard]

nc weatherwizard I agree with your statement on SE VA but to advise ANYONE on the NC coast to just stay inside and you "imagine" they will be fine seems very irresponsible. If Emergency Management asks you to evacuate then by all means please do so. Please listen to the advice of the NHC and your local Emergency Management offices. In natural disaters like this it is very hard for rescuers to get to you if something were to go wrong. Everyone PLEASE be safe in this storm.

In only, say, 12 more hours it will be safer to stay indoors than to venture out and drive anywhere. With the storm now very close, residents can assess what they need to do based on prior experience--of which virtually all OBX residents have plenty. I'm not discouraging evacuation in the next the hours, but if a homeowner in Currituck County feels it's not necessary to leave, they will be fine indoors.

[Annie Oakley]

TheBurn: Thank you for the image of what Drudge Report calls the 'MONSTER'.

[rosethornil]

What is it that'll keep Earl from rolling right into North Carolina? I keep hearing about a cold front moving west, but that cold front appears to be some distance from Earl.

Is there any obstacle to Earl moving onto land in North Carolina? And what is the likelihood that all these computer models have neglected some variable(s)? Are these complicated "computer models" *that* accurate?

[Evenstar]

Thanks for all the answers regarding the rain issue. I learn more and more here every day. It's awesome.

That being said, I am disappointed. We haven't had decent rain in ages and I was hoping we would get a good dousing. Earl, you have let me down in a big way!

[Zarniwoop]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have no idea what I'm talking about. But, it actually looks like it may have nudged back east of 75. Looks like EC may be spared the brunt of the core. Certainly some TS or low hurricane winds though on shore.

[rockyman]

OT, but I know some people are only reading this one thread:
Rescue efforts underway after oil rig explosion in Gulf
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/02/re ... t-in-gulf/

[lovestorms84]

Has Earl started to make the turn to the NE yet? (silly question, just not seeing it on the loop) and also new to this!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Thanks for all the answers regarding the rain issue. I learn more and more here every day. It's awesome.

That being said, I am disappointed. We haven't had decent rain in ages and I was hoping we would get a good dousing. Earl, you have let me down in a big way!

What might be rain for you could be rain and destruction for others.

[SunnyThoughts]

If that inner eyewall collapses and the outer one takes over during the erc...thats going to be a huge eye.

[RevDodd]

What is it that'll keep Earl from rolling right into North Carolina? I keep hearing about a cold front moving west, but that cold front appears to be some distance from Earl.

Is there any obstacle to Earl moving onto land in North Carolina? And what is the likelihood that all these computer models have neglected some variable(s)? Are these complicated "computer models" *that* accurate?

In a nutshell, it's not so much something keeping Earl from NC, but the thing that had been steering him in that direction is no longer doing so.

For days, Earl has been rolling along the southern edge of high pressure, which has kept him from turning north sooner. Now he's reached the edge of that ridge, essentially falling off the edge of a table of air. Falling up as it were.

The northern movement isn't something bumping him away from NC. It's something that's finally no longer stopping him from heading north.