ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

That is not a good presentation with regards to the SAL/WV...notice how the core convection is right up close to the dry air...if you want to see a stronger system normally there'd be a shield of moisture to the north of the center like you can see with the wave behind Gaston.

That being said the models do seem keen on keeping this one weak, so the NHC may have to lower thier forecasts for strength...but as we saw with Earl it certainly doesn't preclude a powerful hurricane down the line...

Also thats a strong upper high feature there, probably not going to gain much latitude till 55-60W.

If Gaston does survive KWT, this can be really bad news for the Carib down the road, because we know what they say about weak storms at this location and the direction they generally move.....Regardless, it's looking more and more like a carib hit. Even more so than yesterday, based upon the model runs and strength

[cycloneye]

NHC gives stronger life to Gaston.

48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT

[otowntiger]

Gaston just may be "gast-gone"! There looks to be very little left of him right now anyway. It's amazing how quickly things can change, which of course makes the argument that he can resurrect himself just as quickly as he apparently has dimenished.

[ConvergenceZone]

Gaton just may be "gast-gone"! There looks to be very little left of him right now anyway. It's amazing how quickly things can change, which of course makes the argument that he can resurrect himself just as quickly as he apparently has dimenished.

Well, we better hope so, because it doesn't look like there's any possible way that this avoids the carib when you look at the forecasted track.

[SoupBone]

Link to the latest visible of Gaston?

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Link to the latest visible of Gaston?

[hurricaneCW]

I think Gaston is hibernating right now. I don't think he's going to just fade away that quickly as long as the structure remains impressive. I could definitely see this one rapidly developing as it gets much further west, which is not a good thing.

[Duke95]

When you say the structure remains impressive, to what are you referring?

To this noob, the structure doesn't look impressive.

[ROCK]

When you say the structure remains impressive, to what are you referring?

To this noob, the structure doesn't look impressive.

cyclonic turning...it has a low level circulation but the subsidence to the north keeps drying it up....patience grasshopper..

[SouthFloridawx]

When you say the structure remains impressive, to what are you referring?

To this noob, the structure doesn't look impressive.

cyclonic turning...it has a low level circulation but the subsidence to the north keeps drying it up....patience grasshopper..

Looks like convection will be on the increase this afternoon and eveing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

[ColinDelia]

The dryest air has wrapped around the west side of the circulation some. (KWT mentioned this too)



One would think it would be very difficult to predict the future of that - in the short to medium term anyway. Does it keep pushing west or pull back?

[TheBurn]

[Vortex]

Gaston certainly stands the chance to effect many people..It’s looking increasingly likely that the Windward/Leeward islands are going to be effected by this storm. We now have several runs indicating a direct hit in the same general region. PR also is coming under the gun…As is usual how the trough/ridge set up will be critical in the long term for the US. The best analog cyclones to match the GFS seem to be Cleo/David…Not as much where they hit long term but the pattern.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree Vortex, the chance of this being a fish is diminishing as we speak...

[Duke95]

When you say the structure remains impressive, to what are you referring?

To this noob, the structure doesn't look impressive.

cyclonic turning...it has a low level circulation but the subsidence to the north keeps drying it up....patience grasshopper..

Patience for what? This thing developing is not something that makes me, or should make anyone else, happy.

I don't understand how the "cyclonic turning" in this case can be termed impressive. If you can state specifics regarding why it is impressive, I would be interested to hear them.

[cycloneye]

It has a lot of work to go to regain Tropical Storm status.

[OURAGAN]

Yes, and the center looks to be At 13,5N and not at 14N like the 11am Position

[StormClouds63]

Gaston just may be "gast-gone"! There looks to be very little left of him right now anyway. It's amazing how quickly things can change, which of course makes the argument that he can resurrect himself just as quickly as he apparently has dimenished.

Even if Gaston doesn't re-develop, the next system exiting Africa is even farther south and, at least for now, looks mighty impressive.

[ConvergenceZone]

Duke,

Well, it's "impressive" enough to keep it from being labeled as a wave. I think that's what he meant.
If the circulation wasn't impressive enough to keep it as a depression, then they would have renamed it
back to wave status....
It doesn't matter what it's doing now anyway, as it doesn't suppose to do much right now anyway.
[/quote]

[StormClouds63]

Favorable MJO appears to be on the way:



MJO does generally move west to east, right?

Any ideas on what impact this would have on Gaston (or future Hermine) if they can survive the unfavorable environment currently in Atlantic?