ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[brunota2003]

I understand that it won't change back to the NW, it just has that look. It could be that it is just going to wobble a little to the west, but overall head north like it is.

[funster]

Going to be a close call for cape hatteras if that is the center appearing now on radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

The biggest concern is probably the cape cod area, which is farther east than the NC coast.

[breaking wind]

NHC has nailed this storm to this point and if they are correct moving forward and the storm does indeed stay offshore, the only area that is vulnerable to hurricane force winds is the outer banks and thats not even a given at this point.

[xironman]

Lowest pressure this past is still to the west of the last pass

Code: Select all

Time:   16:40:00Z
Coordinates:   31.35N 75.2333W
Acft. Static Air Press:   696.3 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:   2,663 meters (~ 8,737 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:   939.8 mb (~ 27.75 inHg)
D-value:   -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):   From 357° at 17 knots (From the N at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp:   19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Dew Pt:   13.8°C (~ 56.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   13 knots* (~ 14.9 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate:   3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)

edit I picked the wrong one but still west

[TheBurn]

[funster]

NHC has nailed this storm to this point and if they are correct moving forward and the storm does indeed stay offshore, the only area that is vulnerable to hurricane force winds is the outer banks and thats not even a given at this point.

Portions of Massachusetts are under a hurricane warning.

[Trishasmom]

Thanks for all the answers regarding the rain issue. I learn more and more here every day. It's awesome.

That being said, I am disappointed. We haven't had decent rain in ages and I was hoping we would get a good dousing. Earl, you have let me down in a big way!

What might be rain for you could be rain and destruction for others.

I think we all understand what a hurricane can do and I do not think anyone is saying needing rain is more important than the destruction too much rain can cause BUT we do need rain in our area and being that we are surround by farm lands who have already lost a lot due to lack of sufficient rain one could hope for a little water can't they? Life always before material things but I too was hoping for a little rain out of this as it's been awhile since we've had any rain in my area.

[GoneBabyGone]

Hi all --

This has been a fascinating storm to watch, and you guys are amazing.

Any thoughts on what kind of weather we can expect here in Cambridge/Boston?

Accuweather has us at:

Daytime:
SE at 20 mph
Gusts: 105 mph

Night:
NNE at 35 mph
Gusts: 79 mph

1" of rain

[AdamFirst]

I think he's going a hair west of due north. That hair still makes a big difference...

11 AM advisory had it at 74.8 W, I believe recon or SHIPS guidance put it at 75.1 recently

[xironman]

I understand that it won't change back to the NW, it just has that look. It could be that it is just going to wobble a little to the west, but overall head north like it is.

According to the recon it looks like it is still going a bit west of north.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Changes I would make to the watches and warnings at 2 pm:

Hurricane Warning

-No changes necessary ATTM.

Hurricane Watch

-Introduce for the Atlantic coast from Bar Harbor, ME to Hubbards, NS including the Bay of Fundy
-Introduce for the Atlantic Coast from Watch Hill, RI to Westport, MA and for Block Island (plus new TS Warning)
-Introduce for Long Island from Moriches Inlet to Orient (maintain existing TS Warning as well)

Tropical Storm Warning

-Introduce for the Atlantic coast from Hull, MA to Bar Harbor, ME
-Extend to areas from Sandy Hook, NJ to New Haven, CT, including Long Island and Sound and NYC
-Extend to the rest of Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay and the Tidal Potomac

[xironman]

I think he's going a hair west of due north. That hair still makes a big difference...

11 AM advisory had it at 74.8 W, I believe recon or SHIPS guidance put it at 75.1 recently

Would not be surprised if the next VDM came out at 75.2

[RL3AO]

I just noticed that the track now has the eye just missing Eastern Maine.

[micktooth]

Going to be a close call for cape hatteras if that is the center appearing now on radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

The biggest concern is probably the cape cod area, which is farther east than the NC coast.

Now we can visually track the eye of Earl. Looks almost due N at this time?

[tolakram]

30 Frame LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Looks like SW shear on the increase.

[tolakram]

Radar Loop

[xironman]

Going to be a close call for cape hatteras if that is the center appearing now on radar http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

The biggest concern is probably the cape cod area, which is farther east than the NC coast.

Now we can visually track the eye of Earl. Looks almost due N at this time?

Recon is a lot more accurate than the satellite, if you look on that thread they drop in visuals from Chris's google maps app.

[JonathanBelles]

I think that Earl is down to 130mph now based on recon and the visible satellite showing an eye that is filled in, and convection in the eyewall decreasing (via the VDM).

[plasticup]

Do we have any real-time measure of storm surge? SLOSH is still showing a 60-70% chance of a 5 foot surge at Nags Head, and I'd like to see whether that verifies...

[hurricaneCW]

I still think Earl has a shot at reorganizing once the EWRC is finished and Earl is over the gulf stream. It's definitely not a Cat 4 though right now. I'd say 125 mph Cat 3.