ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

I still think Earl has a shot at reorganizing once the EWRC is finished and Earl is over the gulf stream. It's definitely not a Cat 4 though right now. I'd say 125 mph Cat 3.

Wind shear will be increasing and SST will be decreasing.. we likely saw Earl's peak intensity yesterday.

[sandyb]

looking to the north of earl starting to flatten out some what are the chances of being bumped into the coast of nc and not being let go to the north

[CrazyC83]

Just got this in my inbox.

WWCN31 CWHX 021711
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:11 PM ADT THURSDAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
=NEW= HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY
=NEW= HANTS COUNTY
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
=NEW= SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
=NEW= GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
=NEW= MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
=NEW= FUNDY NATIONAL PARK.

HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 90 KM/H OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN INCIPIENT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 130 KM/H OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT HURRICANE
CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
36 TO 48 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ENDED FOR:
QUEENS COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT NOON THURSDAY THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 485 KM
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTHWARD AT
30 KM/H. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK EARL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TO THE FUNDY COAST OF
NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG WINDS ... GUSTING AS HIGH AS 130 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...UP AS
FAR AS THE EASTERN SHORE...AND THE BAY OF FUNDY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 90 KM/H.

HEAVY RAIN ... AMOUNTING TO 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES COULD FALL OVER
THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY AS EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.

END/..

[sandyb]

looking to the north of earl starting to flatten out some what are the chances of being bumped into the coast of nc and not being let go to the north

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29

[CrazyC83]

Given the data, I would say 110 kt.

[hurricaneCW]

I still think Earl has a shot at reorganizing once the EWRC is finished and Earl is over the gulf stream. It's definitely not a Cat 4 though right now. I'd say 125 mph Cat 3.

Wind shear will be increasing and SST will be decreasing.. we likely saw Earl's peak intensity yesterday.

I'm not saying it will regain its peak strength, I'm just saying it can reorganize a bit and look more presentable. SST's are more than warm enough to support this storm all the way to N.C. This storm has been dealing with 15-20 knots of shear since yesterday when it peaked. This is a large storm and shear is not going to bring it down so easily.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, Earl can easily go down to cat 1 or cat 2 status. It's peaked already..

[shah8]

No, that's because "intuition" sez that forcasts usually surprise to the east. See Rita.

[hurricaneCW]

The NHC had the right idea way back before the Leewards except they were further to the east then where the storm actually went, but that's nothing new. The overall track prognosis was nailed perfectly.

[sandyb]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[plasticup]

NHC has nailed this storm to this point and if they are correct moving forward and the storm does indeed stay offshore, the only area that is vulnerable to hurricane force winds is the outer banks and thats not even a given at this point.

No they really haven't. They have consistently been east of the actual track throughout this episode and trying to recurve it much quicker than is being proven out. Even when the models were showing that the more westerly track is correct, they ignored it and stayed in "the right side of the guidance envelope". (from the 5AM discussion: "THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.") -removed- maybe?

Naw, their 3-day has been perfect. Just eyeballing it, I'd say they have been within 50 miles almost every time.

edit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[vbhoutex]

I too have to give kudos to the NHC. They have basically nailed Earl. They may not be exactly on point, but they sure have been very close with his track. As far as the "-removed-" comment directed towards the NHC-NO!! That is as close to bashing the NHC on this site you will get without getting banned. Get my drift? The NHC has no reason whatsoever to "wishcast".
As far as what Earl appears to be doing right now. He still has a slightly W of N component in his movement. IMO, this is going to be a VERY CLOSE CALL as to whether he comes ashore on the OBX or not.

[JtSmarts]

Earl is currently at 75.2 and the farthest east that NC extends is about 75.5-75.4 it will be very close unless Earl begins his move NNE prior to passing NC.

[HurrMark]

For anyone who doubts the skill of NHC forecasters, here are the 5 PM forecasts for the last 3 days for 2 PM 9/2, and the actual position:

Forecast Lat Lon Wind Diff - Wind (kt) Diff - Loc (miles)
8/30, 5 PM 31.6 74.7 110 kt 0 kt 33
8/31, 5 PM 31 75.5 115 kt 5 kt 53
9/1, 5 PM 31.7 75.4 110 kt 0 kt 13
Actual, 9/2, 2 PM 31.7 75.2 110 kt

I don't want a political debate, but there is and always has been controversy over various government agencies. I really find it hard, though, to debate the function and importance of the National Hurricane Center. These folks are working around the clock under unimaginable pressure to make sure the public is provided the best information and forecasts possible. And I just want to take this moment to thank them for their hard work.

[ColinDelia]

I don't know what anyone would consider accurate or not. I guess it can always be debated. But the past 72 hour forecast was considerably better than the average error the past 3 years.

The 72 hour NHC forecast position 3 days ago at 11am was 31N, 73.5W. Actual position at 11am today was 30.9N, 74.8W
That's a 72 hour error of 67 nm. Considerably less than the average 72 hour track forecast error the past 3 years which was 125 nm.

I used this site to find the distance between the points:
http://www.chemical-ecology.net/java/lat-long.htm
Double-checked it here in case they had an error.
http://www.csgnetwork.com/gpsdistcalc.html

Here are the average forecast errors in the past
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... _noTDs.pdf

[terrapintransit]

Wow...Props to the NHC this year! Those guys nailed it!

[shah8]

One slight distinction to be made was that Earl's general situation was rather simple. It was mostly a matter of figuring out a few key players' speed and direction.

[yzerfan]

Ever since Long Island first showed up in the cone, the NHC really have had to walk a fine line on this one between encouraging sensible preparation in case the track went way too far west and not encouraging an OMG! It's another Long Island Express! Everyone panic!' sort of mentality.

And they seem to have managed to do well in urging what's turning out to be an appropriate level of caution and warnings in their products.

[kevin]

The NHC are wonderful forecasters.

[fasterdisaster]

Earl looks like he's improving slightly in his presentation again.