ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Looks like it is resuming a NNW motion again...although really N-NNW to be technical. Probably its last chance to gain the longitude necessary to be coincident with Cape Hatteras.

[Squarethecircle]

[hurricaneCW]

Earl is currently at 75.2 and the farthest east that NC extends is about 75.5-75.4 it will be very close unless Earl begins his move NNE prior to passing NC.

Hopefully that's as far west as he'll go and gain some easterly component, however, it's so close than a slight wobble to the west could place the western core or even the center on the Outer Banks. It still has a slight westerly component to it so I'd say the furthest west it'll go is 75.3/75.4W which is less than 30-50 miles from the Outer Banks.

[HurrMark]

Earl is currently at 75.2 and the farthest east that NC extends is about 75.5-75.4 it will be very close unless Earl begins his move NNE prior to passing NC.

Hopefully that's as far west as he'll go and gain some easterly component, however, it's so close than a slight wobble to the west could place the western core or even the center on the Outer Banks. It still has a slight westerly component to it so I'd say the furthest west it'll go is 75.3/75.4W which is less than 30-50 miles from the Outer Banks.

Cape Hatteras is slightly over 75.5. So 75.4 would put it 8-10 miles from shore (assuming it doesn't lose longitude)

[fasterdisaster]

The banding looks to be closing around the eyewall again. Maybe the EWRC is finishing up? It probably won't strengthen again, but it might be able to stay steady in intensity until 35N or so.

[toto]

The banding looks to be closing around the eyewall again. Maybe the EWRC is finishing up?
It probably won't strengthen again, but it might be able to stay steady in intensity until
35N or so.

Is it in the Gulf Stream now ?

[RL3AO]

Looks like it is resuming a NNW motion again...although really N-NNW to be technical.

If you want to be technical, the direction between NNW and N is NbW, or north by west.

[ColinDelia]

Can get an idea of where Gulf Stream is here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021200.GIF

[fasterdisaster]

The banding looks to be closing around the eyewall again. Maybe the EWRC is finishing up?
It probably won't strengthen again, but it might be able to stay steady in intensity until
35N or so.

Is it in the Gulf Stream now ?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's right on the southeastern edge, so it's now entering the Gulf Stream. Whether this impacts his intensity is unclear.

[wxman57]

I'm using GARP satellite display to measure Earl's heading. I plotted satellite shots from 1715Z, 1415Z and 1115Z. When I place my cursor dead center in the eye at 1115Z then move it to the 1715Z image and do the same, I get a reading of 340 degrees at 18 kts. For the 3hr movement, I'm getting 335-336 degrees for the heading. This heading would put the center on the coast of NC near Beaufort in about 9-10 hrs (late this evening).

Of course, that's assuming that the heading doesn't change, which it probably will before then. Let's hope so or there won't be much left of the Outer Banks.

[artist]

Earl is currently at 75.2 and the farthest east that NC extends is about 75.5-75.4 it will be very close unless Earl begins his move NNE prior to passing NC.

Hopefully that's as far west as he'll go and gain some easterly component, however, it's so close than a slight wobble to the west could place the western core or even the center on the Outer Banks. It still has a slight westerly component to it so I'd say the furthest west it'll go is 75.3/75.4W which is less than 30-50 miles from the Outer Banks.

Cape Hatteras is slightly over 75.5. So 75.4 would put it 8-10 miles from shore (assuming it doesn't lose longitude)

which would leave it in the hurricane force wind field

[hurricaneCW]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

How accurate is the link above. The last two frames almost show an easterly component but I assume it's an illusion.

[Annie Oakley]

The NHC are wonderful forecasters.

Nobody beats the NHC. Love you NHC!

[Acral]

Ouch. Well as a resident of Gulf Shores, AL, I can add this advice... aside from rising water, once the system "starts" over the islands, "hunker down" is usually better than trying to drive in hurricane force winds. From the tracks, they MAY be spared the NE Quadrant, and that is defiantely fortuitus.

[toto]

Can get an idea of where Gulf Stream is here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 021200.GIF

Thanks

The zero is Earl's position now ?

The other positions are projected path times ?

[fasterdisaster]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5

How accurate is the link above. The last two frames almost show an easterly component but I assume it's an illusion.

I'm not really seeing that easterly component, still looks a touch west of north to me.

[dixiebreeze]

I'm using GARP satellite display to measure Earl's heading. I plotted satellite shots from 1715Z, 1415Z and 1115Z. When I place my cursor dead center in the eye at 1115Z then move it to the 1715Z image and do the same, I get a reading of 340 degrees at 18 kts. For the 3hr movement, I'm getting 335-336 degrees for the heading. This heading would put the center on the coast of NC near Beaufort in about 9-10 hrs (late this evening).

Of course, that's assuming that the heading doesn't change, which it probably will before then. Let's hope so or there won't be much left of the Outer Banks.

This amateur thinks you have it right.

[Raebie]

Yikes. How's that front coming along?

[wxman57]

Yikes. How's that front coming along?

The front is pretty far to the west.

[latitude_20]

Seems to me the front's not moving near fast enough...