ATL: GASTON - Models

[hurricaneCW]

There is no fall, only an endless summer. Another 95+ degree day making it 5 days in a row. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, feels like summer out there. The gfs is definitely overdoing those cold fronts, it always tends to do that as we move on into the cool season, if it even ends up being cool is anyone's guess.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET is Caribbean bound and runs ends just south of Puerto Rico.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 38.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2010 13.7N 38.1W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2010 14.2N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2010 14.7N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2010 15.1N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2010 15.6N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2010 15.8N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2010 16.2N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2010 16.5N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2010 16.7N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2010 16.8N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2010 17.1N 62.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2010 17.2N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2010 17.5N 67.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF is also Caribbean bound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

now were getting some strong consistency...

[cycloneye]

But 12z GFDL loses the system

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

And the GFDL will probably come back as a major on the next run

[Wx_Warrior]

Actually Rock, SETX is projected to be in the 60s on Saturday morning!

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP continues very bullish.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 021814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC THU SEP 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON (AL092010) 20100902 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100902  1800   100903  0600   100903  1800   100904  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  39.3W   13.7N  40.2W   14.2N  41.2W   14.8N  42.8W
BAMD    13.5N  39.3W   14.0N  40.2W   14.6N  41.4W   15.2N  43.1W
BAMM    13.5N  39.3W   13.7N  40.1W   14.3N  41.3W   14.8N  42.6W
LBAR    13.5N  39.3W   13.8N  40.3W   14.6N  41.6W   15.8N  43.2W
SHIP        25KTS          24KTS          27KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          24KTS          27KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100904  1800   100905  1800   100906  1800   100907  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  44.8W   16.3N  49.6W   16.2N  55.5W   16.0N  61.0W
BAMD    15.7N  45.0W   15.7N  49.6W   14.8N  55.3W   14.1N  60.7W
BAMM    15.3N  44.3W   15.5N  48.2W   15.1N  52.9W   15.4N  57.6W
LBAR    17.1N  45.2W   19.6N  50.0W   20.9N  54.9W   21.0N  59.3W
SHIP        41KTS          59KTS          72KTS          86KTS
DSHP        41KTS          59KTS          72KTS          86KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  39.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  38.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  36.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[ColinDelia]

LGEM backs off quite a bit though. Only goes up to 72 knots in 5 days now.
This will be fascinating to see how it resolves - whatever happens.

[ColinDelia]

.. unless it goes over your house, Luis. :-0

[ColinDelia]

LGEM doesn't get back to a TS until Sunday afternoon

[Tireman4]

Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, feels like summer out there.

We will take that in Houston. That is fall here. LOL. We have had lows in the upper 70's to low 80's here

[StormClouds63]

Actually Rock, SETX is projected to be in the 60s on Saturday morning!

Weather_Wx: Do these weak "cool fronts" have enough "punch" to divert any tropical systems which might form in the western GOM? Perhaps east/northeast toward Florida?

[South Texas Storms]

i still dont think this is going to be a recurver. i feel like this one has gom bound written all over it.
i really want to see what the euro shows tonight.

Why do you feel that has gom written all over it?
Anything to do with where you live?

We're talking like 10 days out at least!

no its just by the trends so far this season. earl was forecast to recurve but its going to brush the east coast. the gfs tends to overdo the troughs and i think one of these cape verde storms will sneak through the caribbean and into the gulf.

[Wx_Warrior]

Probably not, but not super sure.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 168 hrs

[fci]

If Gaston stays alive and the model consensus is right, another stormy period ahead for Northern Leewards.
While it is rough for them, we should be thankful that this series of storms are not occurring in the DR like a couple of years ago. That would be a horrible disaster on top of earthquake devastation.
Let's hope the recurve train keeps going and models migrate that way or he poofs out.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is another fish..Canadian agrees.

However, every other model is for a west track into the Caribbean. This is one of the biggest splits I have seen in a while (or maybe I have a short memory ) between 2 reliable models against a heavy consensus of reliable models going west into the Caribbean.

Edit: to say the Euro pretty much drifts it moving NNW for days.

[Wx_Warrior]

agree

216

[Duke95]

12z HWRF seems to be moving NNW in last 3 frames towards the trough and prior to reaching the Caribbean.